Member Info for semaphorRed

“Overnight it will be 100p per share”.

Yes? Are all the other people who think this also idiots or just me because you're poor and bitter and your wife is currently with the poor but not bitter milkman?

"Please lets move on....."

I mean I felt our discussion was pretty productive but ok.

"Obviously you've forgotten the bile you posted when you reincarnated into your current handle, I didn’t"

So then it's both of us. But I was attempting to answer the question you directly addressed to me, in good faith. And I did. So what's your excuse?

It's very sad. I was asked to explain which I kindly did, nothing in it for me, and for my views I'm called an idiot. Awful.

"Thankfully you’re not my financial adviser. I’d be as well’s having a throw of the runes, than ask you."

Proveably not true. No need to be both poor and bitter Salinger - surely one is enough.

All: I'm sure the lack of SP movement on such positive news has been a disappointment. However nothing I haven't said before: we'll only move on commercialisation. However that doesn't mean such an eventual movement will be small. Please just look at calculations from 2 years ago. Many have bought into this share at 15p. That wasn't because of hopes for 10p.

"I just dont see how a company with earning of £9m can have a market cap £500-£700m"

But you do see how a company with no earnings can have a market cap of billions?

I agree, my fingers have also been burned and there's no guarantees here or in life. But also...we were at 12p for ages with nothing and 12p is a market cap of more than 150M. With nothing.

"The formula only matters when you have the money coming in. When will that be? "

Absolutely no idea, I didn't realise I was being asked to give a company performance guarantee - I would've shied off!

"I can tell you that at best it would cover our operating costs for the year, maybe."

Uh...wait. You're saying it would completely derisk the company while providing a billboard for every similar use case in the world? Wow, maybe I went too low. When the company had none of this it was at 10p and 30p and 50p. Now at zero cost/risk and with a product in sale others to study... goodness me.

I don't know why I'm arguing this or why I really care but someone saying we'll be at 5p when we get a commercial contract....irks me somewhat. So...for the last of it before I go for a nap...

At the point of commercialisation, potential investors for QFI will be a very different sort. They'll be looking not at first contracts but at last - they'll look at how big the potential market is for the product which is proven to work not as a technology but now as a business - a product that has actual market demand from big players and when that demand is fulfilled is both profitable for the user and for the company making it. So it'll look at scalability and then from that arrive at a PE ratio. PE ratios of 100 and 500 exist. If the company is scalable at lot cost and if the potential market is massive, the current sales are small (so a successful company will have a much lower PE ratio) and the competition is weak. So a very low PE company would be, for example, BMW.

1. Massive company already, no room to grow.
2. If it does grow, huge costs of additional factories.
3. Lots of very similar competition (Mercedes for example)

"This is fantasy"

No, it's low balling it. Look around. Any company at all. Deliveroo. 1.5bn market cap and it's loss making.

"There can't be evidence of a future event"

Sorry, what?

"Real experts charge for their knowledge"
There's no knowledge online then. Got it.

"so everything here is opinion"

Everything everywhere is opinion. You think you sit down with an expert and there's no opinion, it's just some sort of secret facts that aren't available to anyone else?

"why I asked him to show his evidence which turns out to be a formula we all know about, and no evidence at all."

My man, the formula is the evidence. And yeah, we all know it. It isn't secret evidence, granted. It is indeed, pretty obvious. And a calculation to go from contracts generating earnings to a share price is literally everything to do with investing here and the only thing a new investor should be looking at, so very far from costing anyone money to be honest.

"This would give EPS £.0048, I think a better multiple would be x10 so a share price of 5p"

And that's how we know you're wildly wrong. And how you know you are too. You think we can a multimillion pound contract and our share price is ...5p? Our share price has been pretty stable at 12p for years with nothing. And having a multiple of 10 and the market pricing in other things means the multiple wasn't 10. It was 20 or 30. Remember this will be an early stage tech company with free cash flow. Go look at PEs for similar companies.

"You get where I’m going with this. "

Yes sir, but instead of actual prices, I'll show my workings.

This isn't a fuel company, it's a technology company. Average tech company P/E is about 30 give or take and based on the fact this is a very low cost operation and incredibly scalable I think it'd be higher but we can take 30.

Then all you have to do is take the money that the commercial contract in question is worth to QFI, take away costs (say £3m), and divide by 1.2bn to get the eps. Then, multiply by 30 (50 really but do 30). That's your share price.

So if a contract is worth £15M per year, take £3M away to get £12M earnings. That's 1p earnings per share or 30p to 50p share price.

"I expect price action to mirror Maersk trial action, however we are much further ahead of the game.
In 2020 shipping fuel market was worth $110 billion.
Price expectations of 100p within 18 months are reasonable as long as we are successful. "

So...I don't expect to have really significant movement before conclusion of commercial contracts. The market has now come to terms with this being a binary play and nothing besides.

However 18 months? For me it'll be a day, and neither Miton nor anyone else can stop it. If EPS is 2p then we won't see 100p for dust.

""pie in the sky" speculation and forecasting of future SP levels"

I don't regard price analysis as either pie in the sky or speculation. 2p is fine but upon commercial contracts I expect over 100p immediately and can support this expectation with evidence.

No. He follows by saying "obviously they wanted to keep things under wraps until the purchase went through"

Timestamp 1:09

"It would certainly explain why Maersk would sell their vessel to MSC for the trial."

No. It was explicitly stated today that the reason for all the secrecy was exactly this - to allow the completion of the purchase of the vessel by MSC without alerting Maersk. See the video

https://biofuels-news.com/news/quadrise-signs-agreement-with-msc-ship-management/

'real blow if retail punters were dumping on this news. "

Nonsense. The news is the news. No one's view of the news changes it one iota

Auction. Next couple days I'm afraid. You may want to buy but you'll need a seller and you won't find one at 1.5p after this morning's news.