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I ask again…..

Explain this away Major Tom….

Nick von Schirnding, Executive Chairman of Arc Minerals, commented:

"I am very pleased that we have continued to make good progress in the negotiation of a transaction with Anglo American in respect of the proposed Joint Venture. We are also pleased with the progressive reforms being undertaken by President Hakainde Hichilema's administration and the Ministry of Mines. I look forward to moving swiftly to signing all the final agreements and to updating shareholders shortly."

Actually there is another potential downside, the new concentrators were potentially going to be bigger than Roan but the expanded one is likely to double capacity. On the plus side the ability to process ROM as well as tailings will mean a higher feed grade and consequently higher concentrate output. The key question is will that be enough to supply both Northern and Southern refineries? Something to ask at the presentation.

Explain this away Major Tom….

Nick von Schirnding, Executive Chairman of Arc Minerals, commented:

"I am very pleased that we have continued to make good progress in the negotiation of a transaction with Anglo American in respect of the proposed Joint Venture. We are also pleased with the progressive reforms being undertaken by President Hakainde Hichilema's administration and the Ministry of Mines. I look forward to moving swiftly to signing all the final agreements and to updating shareholders shortly."

F79 my confidence comes from the potential in the licenses and the data that’s been acquired so far, I was heavily invested before Anglo officially announced their interest and the impending JV has only strengthened my resolve. Also I’ve never seen such a campaign of deramping / disinformation on any share on the market over such a long period…. A sure sign that people in the know expect this to be massive!

The only link I’ve got is to the Cadastre Digger! Nothing to do with Arc’s licenses, just something I happened to notice in another area.

Basscadet, the only obvious downside I can see for Roan expansion over a new concentrator at Luanshaya is trucking the material to Roan, but the distance between the sites is relatively small (30km as the crow flies) so I would think in the long run that would be far outweighed by the savings in building a greenfield site and getting the infrastructure set up again. One of the questions I asked is how they see things going after that, for Kitwe / Mufulira…. More expansion at Roan site or new concentrator(s) further North.

It’s good to see that license applications are now being granted in the Cadastre…. Hope ours are near the front of the queue!

A bit of good news from last week:
https://www.znbc.co.zm/news/zesco-declares-end-to-load-shedding/

Why not wait for the investor call once the JV is signed off and you can ask Nick yourself! That’s assuming you are invested before then.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mitsubishi-materials-targets-more-mines-to-triple-copper-output-by-2030-2023-02-16

Charles I don't see any indication in the RNS that Inyoni is shutdown. The problems seem to mainly have been at Windsor 8 which didn't have backup power. That has now been rectified. The increased chrome production allowed them to create a stockpile to ensure regular supply to Inyoni in the event of problems with chrome supply.

Careful Peggy, a new broom sweeps clean, as the saying goes :-)

Just for info, I asked the question and then reported myself :-) Suddenly the rubbish was swept away!

Hi Dorfan,

Yes certainly you are justified in being critical. I don’t have an issue with the operations, I’m sure they are trying their best to deal with difficult circumstances and I’m sure the problems will be overcome. Anyone who has spent time in Africa will appreciate that things are not always as straightforward as you might expect if you are based in Europe, as I’m sure you know only too well.

My major concern is also communication. The new chairman in his introductory (and so far only) interaction with shareholders said:

“ Jubilee is at a set of important crossroads and to reach the next level of growth it requires a greater level of clear communication with shareholders, and of strategic direction and the consequential requirement of discipline, process, risk management and structure. These are areas where I can assist both the Board and the Executive team.”

I see no evidence yet that there has been an improvement in clear communication, in fact things are much the same as when Colin was Chairman. This needs to change if the company wants to retain / regain the trust of investors.

I encourage all of the regular posters here to make their feelings known to the company before the presentation tomorrow. I will certainly be doing that.

Thanks!

Why is redmetal being allowed to spam the board?

Well that didn’t make for a pleasant read! The numbers are disappointing but to be honest its more the manner in which they were presented that disappoints me more. To claim that results were “ broadly in-line with management's expected earnings and revenue targets for H1 FY2023” may be true for management but those expectations were certainly not put across to shareholders.

Some observations from the numbers:
PGM revenue / oz $1,456 but PGM basket $2,019. Yes we have 18,208 ounces produced but the price paid for them is lower than it should be I think. This might be the reason:
“ Operational PGM efficiencies came under pressure due to a scheduled drop in PGM feed grade over the initial four months from third party suppliers, which has since returned to previous higher levels that has continued during the current period.”
At roughly $17m PGM earnings this is about $5m below where we would have expected with no load shedding effects.
Chrome earnings of roughly $6.3m is about $1.5m down on the previous period despite increased production.
Copper is obviously the biggest disappointment with only 1,388 tonnes produced and production costs badly affected by water / power issues resulting in less than $2m in earnings.
In total the expected earnings (applying the chrome credit) is about $19m for the period compared with my estimate of $37m (and that was allowing for 10% reduction in PGM / Chrome). Not great.

It’s obvious that the new plan for a “Concentrator Hub” at Roan is still pretty new and they are still working out the details. I found the RNS a bit muddled and lacking in clarity about exactly what the plan is, maybe because they are still hashing it out themselves! I’m hoping to see an update soon which gives the details about what we can expect from copper / cobalt in the first half of this year and what exactly is happening with the Northern Refineries…

Despite the power and water issues (which at least in Zambia, should be behind us), the underlying business is still sound so I’m not going to get hysterical and cash in my winnings! I won’t be adding any more either though… not until after the results are released in March.

Any positives to take? Well not many to be honest! We do now have a faster route to increased copper and cobalt production and the new Roan front end will allow processing of higher grade ROM as well as tailings. We are in a place with (hopefully) reliable power and water infrastructure.

Scott do you actually do any research on Jubilee? You don’t seem that ignorant on other companies you post on. All you have to do is watch the presentation and all will be made clear! As for the share price if my post didn’t explain it for you I give up.

It’s embarrassing that you don’t even know Colin Bird is no longer with Jubilee.

“not to scare people out”

That’s exactly want you want to do, otherwise you would just keep quiet and short your short. I do hope for your sake they don’t have big news… like a tie-in with a car manufacturer or something. Actually I hope that’s exactly what happens and you loose your ****!