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It’s no surprise that Bushy fails to even mention the reason why targets were not met… power and water. Both of these issues have been largely addressed. There is no reason to suggest that Roan will not perform as intended, indeed it was fully ramped up and producing at the intended rate before all of the power and water issues. Suggesting otherwise is pure speculation.

Huge amounts of energy to process the cobalt? Why is that exactly? I don’t see why dropping the cobalt out of solution chemically would require huge amounts of power! Leon stated at least 45% margin on cobalt production. Prices are down right now but demand is expected to grow.

Why would you have expectations of 56K ounces of PGM’s when their own target was 44K ounces? Leon said they expect somewhere between 22K-23K ounces this period so at least 40K ounces for the year…. That’s less than 4K ounces off the target despite all of the disruptions. Hardly the nearly 20K you are suggesting. They also created a buffer of 5k ounces of PGM feed to guard against future issues.

I could go on but frankly its clear that Bushy is just pushing the negative agenda here. Misrepresentation at best, lies at worst. Back on the filter list.

LML’s already in the bag? :-)

I believe Jubilee buys the tailings / ROM at a fixed price per tonne and sells the chrome back to Samancor so there will be an agreed margin on that. They further process to remove fine and ultra-fine chrome (at the same time upgrading the PGM content) which is then sold on at market rate (all profit to Jubilee).

The average earnings / tonne for the last period was US$10/tonne compared to the previous period of US$13/tonne. If anyone tracks the chrome price then it should be easy to get a better estimate of what to expect in the coming period.

Another thing I picked up from the presentation after repeated listening was that they are very close to announcing news on the eastern limb strategy.

Hi RedRoy, it’s just speculation so I might be way off the mark but it would certainly make sense. Hopefully they can finalise the remaining issue soon and we will get some news.

Something interesting I noticed yesterday. Our Head of Operations in Zambia, Francis De Beer, was previously the Chief Processing Officer for Glencore at Mopani!

I was thinking about the reasoning behind buying a cobalt processing plant but also going into partnership with Mopani and developing additional copper refining capacity at Nkana. I don’t see Mopani wanting to sell their only cobalt plant to Jubilee, more likely they would want to use Jubilee’s experience to bring it back into production using improved processing flows and generate earnings from it.

So what other options are nearby, and currently on care and maintenance? HighlyGeared has previously suggested the cobalt plant at Chambishi, which is owned by ERG (who have large operations in DRC). It’s been on care and maintenance since 2019 because of lack of feedstock to supply the plant. I looked a little more into the history of the plant and on the site is a furnace that was previously used to process refinery s l a g from Nkana:

https://www.pyrometallurgy.co.za/Mintek/Chambishi/Chambishi.htm

One possibility is that Jubilee are looking at this as an option to process the Mufulira s l a g project that Leon mentioned in the presentation. That would then leave the cobalt plant at Nkana (which Mopani said they expected to bring back into operation this year) to potentially process tailings as well as Mopani’s own material.

This is from the WHI research note (Dec 2021):
“ Further opportunities exist for Leopard; the new Leopard refinery will be reconditioned to produce ~17kt/year of copper cathode but actually has a notional capacity of 35kt/year. We expect that some or all of this additional capacity also will be reconditioned and utilised through either the Mufulira Tailings or by new tailings arising from production by Mopani. Mopani is a new entity in its current form being returned to majority Zambian state controlled after the sale of the assets by Glencore. We expect that Mopani will need help and that Jubilee might be its partner of choice given the history and Jubilee’s technical excellence.”

If it does turn out to be Chambishi they are targeting, they could potentially bring that s l a g project online relatively quickly and the cobalt (and copper) levels there are several multiples of what is present in our tailings.

Just a bit of idle speculation for a slow sunday!

Hi Prof,

To be honest I had overlooked that, in my defence I had only read the RNS 3 times :-) Taken at face value you could certainly read it as limited production at all times, hopefully that is the case! Anyway, not too long to wait until we find out.

BB2, I’m not particularly underwhelmed, the numbers are in line with the WHI research note for what was predicted from Sable, actually 6,500 tpa of Cobalt Hydroxide is greater than the forecast. This was always more of a pilot project to prove they could produce the cobalt at export quality. From what Leon said in the RNS, the cobalt is being produced “from waste alone” which to me suggests that they are still processing the DRC tailings inherited from Glencore and this isn’t coming from 3rd party ROM. If that is the case, how long can we keep producing cobalt there before that resource runs out? It may be that they eventually pivot back to copper only from Sable and the larger scale cobalt production comes from the North. Of course with the modifications to Roan to allow processing of ROM as well as tailings, that could potentially be another source of cobalt to feed into Sable.

My understanding is that Roan will need to be shut down in order to do the front end modifications, I think Leon mentioned 8 weeks or so to do the upgrade plus I guess Roan will need to be ramped up again? I don’t expect stellar copper production during this period either but we should get guidance on that with the audited results during March. There should still be some copper production from Sable tailings / ROM I imagine.

HD43, Yes I think it’s the same thing, sometimes they say contained cobalt metal. I guess they have been tweaking things to get the quality up because the initial numbers Leon gave equated to 22.7% cobalt but the latest numbers equate to 25.8% cobalt.

A few notes I took during the presentation:

During February expanded cobalt circuit to target Cobalt hydroxide 3,500 tpa = 900 tpa contained cobalt.
By end of May expanding cobalt circuit to target Cobalt hydroxide 6500 tpa = 1680 tpa contained cobalt.
I think Leon mentioned 25-30% contained cobalt within the hydroxide.

Encouragement from within European car manufacturing industry to increase cobalt production.

Sold first batch of European export quality cobalt in January.

Mentioned potential to increase capacity of Roan or build another Roan on site.

Material upgraded at Roan from 0.5% to 1.5-2.0 % before being concentrated then sent to refinery.

At Mopani, 2-3 weeks left to complete final designs for refinery before submitting to Mopani for approval.

Cobalt refinery, one issue outstanding, an undisclosed liability. Expect to resolve this.

Mentioned tender for Mufulira **** project, Jubilee well positioned to win that tender. Not surprising as we hold the exploration license for that dump!

Large mining companies seek to access Jubilee expertise…. Looking forward to providing further updates on that in the future.

Looking into collaborative solar power supply at Inyoni. Some regulatory issues still to be addressed.

Eastern Limb just waiting on environmental licensing to start implementing strategy. Remaining part of Dilakong will form part of that.

Designs for expanded Roan still being worked on.

Plan to create a stockpile of concentrate at refinery in case of concentrator downtime.

Funding: bulk from debt / own cash. Advanced talks with companies for funding.

Commitment to more regular and transparent reporting.

I’d recommend looking at Aqc888’s posting history. I’m sure you can all make your own mind up on his motives!

Cheers Mikie, I wasn’t fishing for compliments!

Believe me I’ve probably done as much research as anyone on this company and no I don’t base my decisions on what others say. But when I see people change their opinion to suit their agenda then I’m going to ignore them or more likely filter them as a waste of time. Frankly I wonder why I’m here at all most of the time, it’s usually 95% garbage on most of the boards!

I don’t have a problem with traders, what I have a problem with is changing your opinion every time you trade, if you do that then in the end nothing you say is worth trusting.

There are valid concerns and then there are wildly unlikely speculations such as Anglo American attempting some kind of smash and grab on the eve of there return to Zambia! What’s more unlikely is that Arc / Rothschilds would just play along with it and continue negotiations with them! Far fetched in the extreme. So yes I’m going to call you out on it, why wouldn’t I!

Some of the ‘regulars’ are obviously trading the share as well as holding so their opinion changes like the wind according to what the SP is doing. For me you lose all credibility when you go down that route but each to their own.

As Leon mentioned in the presentation 70% of chrome is at a fixed margin but 30% is open to market fluctuation so yes there will be a positive impact due to high chrome prices but fluctuations either positive or negative will be damped by the 70% fixed margin.

The Zambian government have been keen to stress that they want to see value addition to metals, so rather than exporting raw materials, those materials are further processed in country before export. One example is the planned EV battery manufacturing plant which is due to be built in Ndola, where the Roan concentrator is. This would be an obvious local client for our ESG friendly cobalt and fit well with the government plans. I asked Leon to comment on this in the presentation but nothing was said.

They’ve been working to suppress the share price for so long I think someone is trying to slowly accumulate in the background without drawing attention. Anyway at some point soon the cork will be out of the bottle.

Digger it was one that was already in process from before the cadastre closure, quite an old application. I just happened to notice that one when looking at something else, I’m not keeping track of the whole Cadastre honest! :-)

“ I really do not want to get into this tit for tat with you”

Translation: “I would really like you to stop challenging my totally outrageous statements”

Imagine that Anglo American were threatening to try and take over Arc’s licenses, including Handa, which is not up for renewal and which contains 2 of the highest priority targets…. Do you think that Rothschild would be advising Nick to carry on negotiations and happily announcing to shareholders that the JV was imminent?! Absolute rubbish and you know it!

As for the “less positive” The licenses are yet to be finalised. Do I think that’s a problem? No I don’t.

So how do you reconcile your comments with the RNS? Does it sound from Nicks comments that there is even the remotest possibility that what you are saying might happen?

Reassured ‘somewhat’! What a joke.