Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Dickbat,
I think I might have more experience in takeovers of listed companies than your posting might suggest. I have been around the block.
May not necessarily mean I am smart but I certainly have experience - on way bigger companies than little Hurricane and its Godawful leadership team (spineless chairman, farcical CEO and joke of a CFO).
So Dickbat (a self-chosen moniker that I think may speak volumes), have a look at the SP and see what the market seems to think.
The market is not always right - that is where investment opportunities (arbitrages) lie - but putting orange paint on a lemon does not make it any less a lemon.
Whatever.
F&M,
You are very right.
Luck follows those with brains.
One just has to have the courage and patience to stay the course, because there can be roadblocks and detours on the way.
PG stayed totally true to mission.
That is gold-dust in a leader.
Which is why I voted with my wallet here in PRD. It was because of PG - and my belief in that was significantly reinforced by the enormously high quality of some of the posters on this BB (that many clever people prepared to share their insights is an unusual phenomenon and I suspect they are right).
I totally agree with TT-T.
The risk/reward ratio is now significantly more attractive than it was back in the day of 1.5p (though I applaud those that were prescient enough to get in back at those entry levels).
The potential reward has increased somewhat (it was always huge, so that is relative), but the risk has decreased very. very significantly.
All due to the great efforts of PG and Lonny.
Any, for any who wish to accuse me of being sycophantic, I can only plagiarise the great words of MickTrick (a great and long standing poster on here) and suggest that you Foxtrot Oscar.
Mirasol,
That is precisely the problem - without buying the whole company (ie a 100% takeover), the buyer cannot easily get rid of the Muppets running the show.
What buyer with any brains is going to run the risk of getting some shareholders to sell out to them but then being left owning stock in a company being run by the same clowns?
It is a mystery to me as to why Crystal Amber have not moved to sack this useless chairman, CEO and CFO.
CAF, activist shareholder, my ass - they have done nothing to remove these three blood-sucking parasites.
The chances of anyone buying this thing at anywhere above this 7.7p offer - which may or may not be real - are low indeed.
There is the oil price risk (though there is definitely upside potential there too), there is geological risk and then there is the certainly of an absolutely useless leadership team (chairman, CEO and CFO).
There is nothing to buy here while that leadership team remains in place - except the cash. And who is going to pay cash to buy cash. You would need to be a spectacular kind of stupid (Truss/Biden scale) to do that.
I exited some time ago and keep watching closely as to whether to come back in. Sadly, I think 7.7p is actually overly generous and the board should have bitten the bidder's hand off to take it.
Ah well, this one has been a bit of a lemon. All part of the investing game. You win some, you lose some.
As "hit jobs" go by shorts, this one was pretty well carried out and well co-ordinated. Clearly by some people who know what they are doing.
It strikes me that they have likely covered their positions, taken their money and run. Anyone left short - and there may well be quite a few who were not part of the pack that planned this "bear raid" - is probably starting to get nervous now because there could well be a short squeeze.
I tend to hold stocks rather than trade, so I was always fine to hold through what I thought would be blip (and the SP has alreaddy started to correct) but I suspect some smart operators made some serious money yesterday on PANR.
JS490,
I agree with you. This has every hallmark of a "bear attack" - and they have, seemingly executed it brilliantly (flagging a short attack, etc, sowing panic).
That is part of the market dynamics. I myself have been hurt - I have a decent size long-term position - but if you are in the market, you have got to understand how the game works and don't cry when it goes against you.
I believe there is significant VALUE in PANR and will hold my position through this bad phase because I believe it will pass and correlation to VALUE will start to come back. Though that could take a little while.
I do think a "new" wave of trolls has arrived, to whatever agenda they may be playing to.
I say "new" in quotation marks because I suspect they may not be new at all but are really just different avatars of past trolls.
Much of the same syntax, for example - "just hear to learn" is one that has recurred over the last few years in several forms.
It really just matter too much about the trolls or even little Nige, who might be a troll or just a personality disorder, the VALUE here will come through or not, as the case may be.
I think the VALUE here is very large - way, way north of 38p (in fact several multiples of that) - but I am just a poster on an Internet BB so take all due caution and DYOR x 10.
Have a good weekend all.
There are some truly brilliant reseachers on this BB.
Best BB i have ever encountered.
I, for one, am very grateful for their insights.
I suspect I am not alone in that gratitude (even little Nige in his more lucid moments might find these inputs both interesting and valuable).
Though those moments of little Nige's lucidity seem to be increasingly fleeting.
I strongly agree with nametrade.
What is being achieved here with a tiny but brilliant and highly committed team (of 2) is spectacular, given the enormity of the 3 assets.
I applaud their achievements and, for my part, am very happy that they are moving the ship forward.
I have been patient here and will continue to be so for as long as it takes to bring the brilliant ship PRD home.
If that sounds like I am a fan of PG and Lonny, then that would be precisely the right summation of my view, FWIW.
The key to successful investing is to identify gaps between price and VALUE.
If you think there is a big gap to the favourable, then look to the timing that it may take for the gap to narrow.
I think the price-VALUE gap here is vast and the time to correlation entirely bearable, given the scale of that delta.
Put simply, I think PRD is worth way, way more than current SP.
I am nowhere near as clever as GRH, Seabright, Methodology, KeithOz, MickTrick and the other big boys but I am pretty confident in my own judgement here (significantly informed by many of the brilliant postings from them and others).
F&M,
I think you are right in the general assessment.
I think this stock and its assets are very valuable.
I hold a decent position in this stock - have done for nearly 3 years now - and am very confident she will come home big.
In a world gone mad, this stock is one thing I have great confidence in and am perfectly happy to run the associated risks.
Even if I won't be getting Christmas cards from little Nige and his friend, Redbox.
Little Nige,
A wonderful lady who is an investor here and occasional poster and an outstanding political strategist has a specific way of messaging to idiots (she is well practised in it - she is senior in the Civil Service).
JFO.
If you need translation/interpretation, start with reading the excellent posts of Micktrick and his references to Foxtrot Oscar.
Fantastic, KeithOz, and thank you.
After a week of the nutters dominating the BB, it is such a relief to see again a value-added post with real insight and information.
GRH may (sadly) have gone from the BB (a terrible loss caused by some thoroughly nasty people) but we are all lucky that you are still posting.
Great stuff, Keith (as ever). Many thanks for this contribution and the others you always give - always valuable inputs.
Apologies to all the (very good) posters on here, I should have not got suckered in.
Will learn the lesson and, again, apologies for having let myself get provoked.
Tom,
Bullying is a terrible thing and should not be tolerated, wheresoever it may occur, be that in the school, workplace, yoga class, whatever.
My observations on little Nige are not bullying at all - he hardly needs my permission to past what he hands on here, in varying degrees of lucidity.
As to your own postings, I am wondering what purpose they serve other than some sort of vendetta you carry on against PG.
I have no idea of the origins of that grudge you hold but I do just observe the portfolio of assets the man has assembled in PRD with minimal capital.
That, to me, is the measure of the man.
It is not without possibility that I am wrong, it has happened before. But, in this case, I am pretty confident I am not wrong.
And that PRD is truly something special, despite what the Klingons may say.
Little Nige,
Bad smells have a habit of always coming back - have you been studying that, little Nige?
Stupid comments like PG being regarded as a "minor deity" are unhelpful, little Nige And petty. And true to your form, and that of your little friend, Redbox.
I suspect I am far from being alone on this largely excellent BB in seeing what PG (and now Lonny) have achieved on a tiny amount of capital. PG has shown huge skill, huge commitment and a great vision (including bringing Lonny into the fold) over quite some years now.
What the man has achieved is little short of stupendous in its brilliance. It has not yet reflected on the scoreboard - but that will come. And come in bucket-loads, in my view (DYOR, of course).
And, when the good ship PRD berths at the destination, little Nige, I do hope you come along to the celebration party.
Because, little Nige, I would very much like to have a face-to-face discussion with you about life and the world.
Pretty uninspiring really.
Current SP is about 31% above the expected cash in bank at year end ($110m) and no strategy and a weak board.
I only had a small position here but I'm out as soon as the market opens for whatever I can get for the shares I hold.
Andy,
Doing nothing and just accumulating money sounds like a reasonable idea - but how will that money get back into the hands of shareholders?
They can't dividend it out (lack of distributable reserves) and share buybacks would have all kinds of ccomplexities for Crystal Amber.
Which would then leave a wind-up process as the only way to actually get the cash out - and that could take a few years yet.