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Jimmy, quite, I have never hidden the fact that I am not a shareholder here - with very good reason.
However, I looked it very closely because I would have wanted to be. What could be done with that cash pile with a dynamic leadership team could have been huge - and made the share well worth buying into.
Because one would then have been buying into serious optionality - what Force Multiplier Effect (FME) could have been deployed on that great cash pile. It could have been a very attractive arbitrage.
Now it is just a debate about how much cash might be left and then some argument about the tax losses (which I and pretty much anyone else with any experience think are pretty much worthless).
It is a liquidation value play now (the mechanism may be dividends along the way) but it is still a liquidation play.
Senseman, CA should have gone through with the EGM to replace the board and then used that board power to kick out Maris and Chaffe from their jobs as well.
One can never know how the shareholders would have voted but my sense is that they would have had a good chance of getting that vote to remove the board passed, given the appalling conduct of the existing board.
Anything would have been better than the current muppets. Who - in the case of Maris and Chaffe and probably Woolf - are hanging on for the lovely payments they get for doing, seemingly, nothing at all.
Senseman, I am not a "doomster". I think HUR is arguably fairly valued (maybe slightly over-valued), given the cash balance and the projected cash flows, so I think it is unlikely the SP would fall much below where it is now (except if there is a dividend payout, when it would likely fall by at least the amount of the dividend payout).
It is not impossible that a bid materialises, though I cannot see on what grounds anyone would bid (all they would be buying is cash - for cash???) but, absent that (one can never legislate against flying pigs), anyone in now might as well hold for the dividend flows.
But to say that CA have not had rings run round them by Woolf and Maris is to display a level of naivete bordering on the delusional.
That CA did a great job in stopping the crazy debt-for-equity deal is undeniable but just because they got one thing right once does not excuse their just getting run over by Woolf and Maris now.
The CA NAV is a chimera.
HUR is arguably fairly valued right now but effectively un-crystallisable for them . They, like everyone else, is probably going to have to wait for a drip feed of dividend distributions until this wretched thing is eventually liquidated.
Their other big holding, De La Rue (DLAR) is a dog of note and the NAV that is reflected there is just a pipe dream. That thing is one step away from going into administration.
And their reputation for making things happen is now shot to pieces after they pulled that HUR EGM requisition and the supposed new management team they had lined up.
CA's failure to act here has been a total disaster. Just letting Maris walk all over them was pathetic. And withdrawing that EGM requisition was idiotic on a Truss scale.
This thing is now nothing more than a DCF on the projected cash flows - and who would use cash to buy cash at what is arguably a premium? Only an idiot - and most idiots don't actually have any money.
EasyP, if you want to take a view on the oil price, why not buy futures on the OP itself?
This Hurricane mess is really a bet on the OP - coupled with operational/managerial risk (useless chairman - Wolfe - and useless CEO, maris).
And a weak major shareholder (Crystal Amber), who can't get out (because no-one wants to buy their stake).
And who pulled their EGM requisition.
If you want a punt on the oil price, futures are a much purer play than this mess.
Great word play, Jimmy.
Ireland were ruthlessly precise and clinical yesterday. Bloody awesome!
If that idiot Ryan would learn from their rugby team, PRD would be in fantastic place - in addition to Morocco and CCS/EOR in Trinidad.
asimple, your points are well made.
I am not a shareholder, though I have looked very closely at this situation (what a decent management team could do with that cash pile was mouth-watering), so I would have no locus standii to initiate litigation.
I know enough about the law - I have been around some decades - to know that a half decent lawyer would have a pretty good chance of success here with a class action. Especially against Maris around the ridiculous purported debt-for equity swap with the bondholders and the INSANE fee paid to Evercore to advise on that deal - somewhere around $17m!!!!!!!!!
Maris should go to jail, with his protector, Wolfe.
A "highly conditional" offer is basically nothing more than a drive-by.
Absolutely worthless. Pretty much meaningless.
Wolfe and Maris should be personally sued for what they have done here.
Crystal Amber made a very serious mistake by withdrawing that EGM requisition.
As long as Wolfe and Maris are running this company, it will be a disaster.
Crytal Amber needed to have followed through and replaced the board of directors.
Now they look like eunuchs - and Wolfe and Maris will continue to steal this thing dry.
I am not a shareholder here. I have seriously looked at it, especially if they brought in a new board. But they seemingly won't do that and so I will not touch this thing.
Senesman,
You are entitled to your view.
Every circus needs clowns.
Look at the SP performance here.
Look at the pathetic, risible performance of Crystal Amber. Just being ridden by Wolfe and Maris.
Hello Boz,
The cash pile should not be deployed on the same asset (Lancaster field).
They need to deploy that cash pile (because it is now substantial) into buying into other fields/technologies, so as to give OPTIONALITY.
Concentrated cash can be deployed to FME (Force Multiplier Effect). With the right leadership (ie not the clowns Wolfe and Maris), that cash pile could be really powerful.
£100m or so in concentrated form can be very powerful.
Shareholders taking out £100k, here, a million Pounds there makes sod all differenece - they then have to re-investm that money without any power of collective.
Crystal Amber has been weak here. As they always are.
Lots of shouting and screaming. No concrete action.
And it was them that put in that useless fool, Wolfe, as chairman.
And they are surprised at the mess that useless fool oversaw????
I know some, maybe many, here would want the cash pile just returned via dividend (which is now possible after the High Court approval of the capital reduction).
And thereby to reduce some of the misery of having invested in this disaster.
But any such dividend return just hands back some cash in fragmented form to investors.
Whereas, with a proper board and leadership, that cash pile could be used to massive force-multiplier effect and could make HUR a stock with real optionality.
Right now, it is little more than an actuarial argument about the NPV of the projected future cash flows and the possible value of the tax losses (which anyone with a brain knows are pretty much valueless).
That cash pile could be used as a massive springboard and shareholders would then have optionality – real potential upside.
Which is, surely, what one invests in equity for?
Getting some cash back may mitigate some of the pain of this disastrous investment.
But what if that cash pile could really be FME’s (Force Multiplied Effect) and this whole company does a Lazarus job – well funded with the cash pile.
Obviously, that requires that those idiots, Wolfe and Maris, be dispatched. But that could be done quite quickly and efficiently.
But to do it, Bernstein at Crystal Amber needs to grow a pair.
Nothing will happen here until Crystal Amber show some spinal fortitude and kick out that useless chairman, Wolfe, and Maris.
Ideally, they should sue those two individuals for value destruction.
For the record, I am not a shareholder here but have looked at it a lot because that cash pile could, in the right hands, be very powerfully utilised.
But for that to happen, the useless board - especially Wolfe and Maris - need to be booted out and replaced with serious players.
So far, Crystal Amber seem to have about as much influence here as a eunuch.
Until a proper board is put in place here, this thing is a waste of time.
Sack Wolfe and Maris.
It is always interesting on this BB.
Some really brilliant insights, clearly deeply researched and based on lots of experience.
Best BB I have ever seen. By a long shot.
Of course, like any of these platforms, there are some resident idiots (Little Niggle and Redbox being two of the most obvious) but they readily self-identify and are relatively easily ignored.
It is good to see a new entrant in DonalB who seems to know what he/she is talking about and adds to the discourse in an entirely civilised way.
Nothing is perfect but I think PRD, through the great efforts and skill of PG and Lonny, is remarkably well positioned.
I don't care too much about the SP at the moment, though, of course, that is a factor.
I care primarily about the VALUE here. And everything I see and hear and read (especially from some of the outstanding posters here who give so generously of their knowledge and insight) leads me to believe that PRD has hit the lodestone.
Some of the Crew will yell at me for "ramping". Cry me a river.
I have been a substantial holder in PRD for coming on 3 years and, an occasional frustration notwithstanding, I think this potentially the best investment decision I have made in a 30 year investing career.
The SP may go round in circles for a little bit until there is some more definitive news but I believe the sails are well set for destination VALUE.
And that destination - VALUE - is quite some destination.
Have a good weekend all.
I am not myself a geologist, nor even normally an O&G investor (though I have taken a big position by my standards in PRD).
As such, I have been very interested in those that really seem to know their geological stuff (KeithOz, etc) but also those that may not be actual geologists but really know their stuff (GRH and several others) also add huge value.
I be but an arbitrageur, looking for systemic dislocations between current SP and real VALUE. And I am not a trader - I am prepared to wait until that disconnect narrows or is eliminated.
I think there is a huge VALUE disconnect here.
I may be right, I may be wrong, DYOR.
But have a look at the quality posters on here and their posting histories. I watch that stuff closely. Too many very clever people on here opine factually (not the histrionic Little Nige/Redbox stuff) for this to be too far wrong.
I think there are verysunlit uplands here in sight.
It has been good to see a welcome return of some measured, calm comment on here, much of which is very well informed.
And it was good to see none of the big boys and girls panic, when it seemed that what happened what a temporary glitch. A glitch which was fully understandable in a complex industry, where one sometimes has to deal with Mother Earth being less than entirely co-operative.
But whilst many stood firm, the yapping chihuahuas certainly took full advantage of their moment in the sun.
Have a good weekend, all.
I think PRD is a great investment opportunity with a potentially massive upside relative to current price (I think there is a VALUE - price dislocation; an arbitrage).
And I have a decent sized position here and have no reason to think this has been anything other than a great investment decision (I have been in for almost 3 years). So, I have some skin in the game.
And I think PG and Lonny have done a fantastic job of assembling a great portfolio of assets.
But the comms strategy has been a complete dog-show and that is not the first time I have said that.
Shouting at a stopped clock does not change the time.
News will come through when it is ready.
This is not a dead-beat management team like HUR, so I am very relaxed in my holding here .
It is a potentially massive outcome, so that needs, in my view, to be the ultimate metric - what is the VALUE potential here relative to current price.
My own view on that is extremely favourable but, obviously, DYOR - or ask Little Nige for some other share tips.