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Paul McGlone, Seeing Machines CEO, asked in interview to list 3 reasons why investors should take interest. His 3rd reason: "Our business is considerably undervalued. Strong technology validated from global OEMs, airlines like Emirates and FedEx, and very very large fleets all around the world , the likes of National Express. So momentum is building and we are undervalued."
Way to go, Paul! I don't think I remember Ken ever stating so publicly that this share price is ridiculously low. That is one hell of a statement for a CEO to make publicly You don't hear it very often from any company.
Google "Paul McGlone Interview Seeing Machines Immotion"
If you are going to view the webcast, there might be some confusion with the start time. When I registered, I think it said it would be at 12:30 but the original RNS said it would be at 10:30. I'm going to get in there ready for 10:30.
So last Tuesday we got an auto contract woth "$11m-£30m" with scope to expand way beyond this with that auto brand.
This Tuesday we get a Fleet contract for 700 of NEG's vehicles with initial value I estimate at $2m-$3m with scope to expand across NEG's 30,500 vehicles. $2.5m x 30,500/700 is quite a big number.
Anyone else going to be at their PC at 7am next Tuesday, hoping for another very nice RNS? I could get to like Tuesdays!
Rampy McRampface
Very nice. This initial contract for 700 vehicles is likely worth about $2m - $3m over the 4 year period starting this year. This initial contract is for deployment across specific brands in the UK. Exciting opportunity to expand to other National Express brands and across other National Express territories. National Express group operate 30,500 vehicles in total.
“The good news is the FDA has already confirmed the headline result that our study has been successful in harvesting cancer cells, from the blood of mastectomy breast cancer patients,” added Mr Newland.
“It has also shown that four major laboratory techniques analysing those cells work successfully."
“Angle is currently involved in finalising analytical studies to show the performance of our instrument – its reproducibility and a variety of other requirements for the FDA."
Couldn't agree less with the idea that the BoD need to buy shares. Newland for example, the CEO and so the most important D of the BoD, already owns 4.1% of the company, a decent chunk in anyone's book. An extra £100k more or less shares makes no difference to the significance of his holding. He has skin in the game.
Add to that that he is incentivised by the company with respect to the share price performance over the next couple of years. That incentive scheme pays out nothing unless the share price exceeds 106p and does not pay out the maximum unless the share price exceeds 206p.
Back-of a-fag-packet, if (when) the share price hits 206p, the incentive scheme will be worth £6m to him. In addition his existing share holding will be worth £15m, I think he is pretty well aligned with our interests!
All just my opinion, of course, and numbers were calculated hastily so do your own research and calculations.
Thanks dimi123. I'm no expert on Begbies. I think it is a good outfit in an area where there is going to be strong demand. My main concern is capacity.
I think whether Brexit is well managed or not is partly besides the point. A well managed Brexit will still change the British economy. Some companies that did well in the old world will not do well in post Brexit Britain. Some businesses will do much better in post Brexit Britain. Whether there are more that do better or more that do worse is kinda unimportant for the prospects of Begbies, all that really matters is that there will be some that do badly and will need recycling. Add that to the fact that there are many other big non-Brexit changes that will help some and hinder others (eg shift from high street to e-commerce) and stored-up bankruptcies from the past as a result of ultra-easy banking policy and you have a good chance of a strong market for Begbies services.
The question for me is, how quickly can Begbies build efficient capacity to take advantage of the market as it comes? I don't have an answer to that and I think it is a key question if you are going to bet on the share price rationally heading above 90p in the near term. Interested in any insight that is out there....
johnchucka - i like everyone else appreciate all your hard work and your willingness to share on this board. Sterling effort. Keep it up.
Other people on the board - people are asking where the line is on reposting info about junior employees. Here is my take: Linkedin info IS publicly available. Reposting that info is not doing anything wrong. I think the line is on making subjective judgements on junior people. "Bill Bloggs used to work at Continental" is fine. "Bill Bloggs" sounds like he isnt a very good programmer" isn't fine, for me. I'd say "Bill Bloggs sounds like he is a great programmer" isnt fine either.
The board work for us, the shareholders, and it is part of our job to assess their performance and make subjective judgements about them (within reason) and they have the ability to respond through company communications if they so wish.
Junior employees should not have to defend themselves publicly and making subjective judgements about them would be placing them under too much pressure, distracting them from their work, and discouraging them from working within the company so we'd be shooting ourselves in the foot. So. For junior employees - factual reposting of publicly available info with their real name - fine by me.
Wouldn't be surprised if there are a few newbies looking at Seeing Machines for the first time. If you are one, I'd recommend having a look at this proactive vid from last week. The vid sounds almost like a trading update.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/14040/seeing-machines--focused-on-implementation-delivery-and-monetising-its-ip--14040.html
Thanks Gawdelpus. Loving Seeing Machines and Angle but need to find another one or two that I can get equally excited about.
Sold my holding. Nice to sell in the 80s after buying in the 50s but I am a bit sad waving farewell to this one. I believe Beg will do well over the next couple of years but quite a lot of that appears to be priced in now. Cannacord have a target price of 88p and I think that sounds fair enough so I'm no longer attracted in the low 80s. Will keep track of Beg though. Would like to get back in if the price slips or if business growth is beyond what I'm expecting. Good luck all.
Basic earnings per share up 69%
Adjusted basic earnings per share up 23%
Direct quotes from 26 June 2019 Finncap note:
"With funding risk now eliminated, and with the FDA registration study having met its primary objective, we apply a 15% discount rate to cashflows and increase our target price to 135p."
"Target price rises to 135p, despite 17% dilution,
given the improved path to commercialisation and largely de-risked nature of the platform."
"This is above our previous price target of 130p"
The 15% discount rate is interesting given that Finncap only include breast & ovarian cashflows in their projected cashflows. The high discount rate is supposed to reflect the risk that Parsortix might not succeed, for whatever reason. However, if it does succeed in breast & ovarian applications it would be very odd for it not to succeed in multiple other cancer and non-cancer applications. So using 15% and only breast & ovarian could seem to be a bit belt & braces. I suppose it is understandable if analysts want to leave themselves some wiggle room as it is never nice to have to downgrade later and if there is any slippage in timetable or unexpected bumps in the road, Finncap could potentially absorb this by removing some of the risk double-count, avoiding having to decrease the target price.
All just wild speculation on my part. Do your own thinking.
Someone recently put a link on here to a Toyota presentation about driver monitoring and its role in the future of Toyota. Notable that this presentation did not see full autonomy being the end of DMS. They actually see DMS being expanded from monitoring of the driver to monitoring of all occupants and becoming a vital part of attuning the vehicle environment to the needs of the occupants and a corner stone of communication between vehicle and occupants. In this way, the future of occupant monitoring clearly goes well beyond full autonomy. Quite good that we have such a strength in Human Factors research then. While others are trying to jump on to an eye tracking bandwagon, we are already going beyond.
Each time a sample is processed through a Parsortix machine, a single-use filtration cassette is inserted into the machine and the CTCs in the sample are captured in the cassette. The cassette is then removed from the machine with the CTCs inside, for analysis. The cassette is designed to be like a microscope slide so some analysis can be done without removing the CTCs from the cassette. If desired for analysis, the CTCs can be removed from the cassette. Each sample processed uses a new cassette. Margins on the cassettes are very high (well over 50%). So you have a razor-blade type business model.
A cassette sales price of £100 has been mentioned in the past but the price is likely to vary depending on intended use and other factors. £100 is likely to be towards the low end of a large range. However, the cassette pricing will still be very reasonable from the customer point of view (compare it to the $150k per year drug cost per patient in this morning's RNS) so it is not exploitative. It will be high enough for us to quickly to get to very high revenue without too many customers. A single full scale drug trial using Parsortix analysis could be worth $millions.
All in my humble opinion of course, and my knowledge could be wrong so well worth doing your own research, as always.
With respect to clinical trials, AGL have previously explained that FDA approval is not necessary for Parsortix to be used in clinical trials. That here is no regulatory restriction or problem with using Parsortix now in clinical trials. They say the problem comes with willingness of big pharma decision makers to stick their necks out to bring in use of Parsortix. Many of these decision makers are very conservative due to the way big pharma is run. Most want to use the same methods as everyone else so if anything goes wrong, they can just tell their management that it wasn't their fault because they did the standard thing. Safety in crowds. FDA approval potentially unlocks this because in the unlikely event of anything going wrong, the pharma decision makers can say "oh well, the FDA were happy with it so it isn't my fault". That said, we are told that AGL are already in discussion with Big Pharma. This may big pharma lining up Parsortix usage ready to go as soon as FDA clearance drops. It could be a minority of decision makers who are willing to introduce Parsortix now. My guess is both discussions are happening. And we know Parsortix is already being used by pharma in early stage trials and small scale.
Worth keeping in mind that Parsortix usage in just one single full scale trial could be worth £millions a year in revenue to AGL.
You are well reasoned, intelligent and articulate but, I think, wrong on this occasion. We can be relaxed about not agreeing. After all, it takes 2 views to make a market. The big problem with replying to what you say is that the replies are already here, and rather than clog up the board with circular conversations, I'll be content to just point to the stuff already on this board. Best of luck with your investing.
sicillian_kan
Difficult to reply to your points on cash as to do so would be just to repeat stuff that is already on this board in the last 30 posts. Have a read. There is not going to be a fund raise anytime soon or possibly ever as takeover or partnerships could remove the need for a fund raise before we get that far.
Your prediction for the near term of no news and a share price drift could mislead people into thinking they are safe to sell and come back to reinvest later, which would be a risky position to take.
(i) Angle have a clever strategy of third parties paying us to develop applications for our product - Parsortix is being used right now by multiple researchers in universities & organisations all over the World for ground breaking research. Angle knows about some of these research programs but not all. These researchers will publish when they are ready. See for example the 10 Jan RNS and what that did to our share price. There will be more research published in the coming months.
(ii) There are other strings to our bow than you mention. For example, licencing the rights to develop Parsortix as a prenatal screening tool could transform the share price and provide an income stream with little to no work by Angle. None of us know if this will happen or when.
(iii) If you invest in Angle then you likely believe that Parsortix has a good chance of becoming mass market. As we progress towards that, takeover becomes more likely. Takeover timing is impossible to predict. Potential buyers will be playing their cards very close to their chests and even Newland won't know. See last 20 posts.