Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
Good post Seeing 2020. It is likely that, though the cash is received in the current year, the revenue in the P&L will be spread over the term of the licence. It is not a black and white area of accounting and it is possible that the A$8m is shown in the P&L this year but more likely that it is spread over the licence. This is just accounting though. More important, we'll have the cash in our pockets and will be free to use it as we wish. A$8m. £4m. Cash in the bank in addition to the cash we already have. Good stuff. Completely agree with you.
I'm so glad to see the SmartEye automotive contract wins today.
The important bit is not that SmartEye won the contracts. Our models all have different assumptions on Seeing Machines market share but no serious models assume more than 50% and I'm happy with my investment at 25%.
The important bit is that auto manufacturers are not completely frozen in the headlights of Covid-19. Many investors are taking the view "there isn't going to be any big news anytime soon so I might as well sell, sit on the cash, wait for Covid-19 to blow over and then get back in" but this news shows there is problem with this strategy. Our expected RFQ wins could really drop any time. One or two bits of news and this could fly. If you are not in, you might miss take off...
Is this a ramp? Sure, if you like. Your choice. Sit on the cash or own a ticket for the ride.
Smokey. Some on here do not have access to the Cenkos note so it is important is represented fairly. I have no problem with you having a different point of view to me or a different point of view to Cenkos. Fine. 2 views to make a market and all that, However, you can't just say someone has said something other than what they have said. I can't reproduce the whole note here but some quotes:
"In summary we believe Seeing Machines will be affected in the near term
from this period of uncertainty, and we have rebased our forecasts to
account for this, but also that Seeing Machines will be resilient to this
with significant cash runway to ride out the effects of the COVID-19
outbreak fallout, based on these revised expectations and with some
flexibility in its cost base. We believe these revised expectations should
provide headroom for upgrades as the transportation industry eventually
emerges from the crisis, adapts to a new normal and resumes its focus on
improved passenger safety. "
"Even on our highly rebased numbers, we believe Seeing Machines has enough cash runway for
around two years of trading. With no debt and significant upside left in these expectations, we
believe Seeing Machines is financed to see its way through the current market turmoil. "
I don't see anything surprising in today's RNS. What ever anyone has said on here, we all know that the world has gone wonky and there are going to be bumps for Seeing Machines.
Today's RNS seems to boil down to "World has gone wonky, SEE has not been hit too badly so far and there is nothing significant to disclose at this point but we point out that when we made previous sales guidance we did not forecast Covid-19 and the impact of that is unknown, just as its impact on the whole world is unkown. We are sensibly conserving cash to insulate ourselves in addition to the pile of cash we already have."
There is no shock in that.
I buy and hold SEE because I believe in the long term value.
I bought SEE at 4.49p and do not regret it as I believe the long term value is higher and short term share price gyrations are unpredictable.
I bought SEE at 3.80p and do not regret it as I believe the long term value is higher and short term share price gyrations are unpredictable.
I bought SEE at 3.15p and do not regret it as I believe the long term value is higher and short term share price gyrations are unpredictable.
I bought SEE at 2.68p and do not regret it as I believe the long term value is higher and short term share price gyrations are unpredictable.
I bought SEE at 1.66p today and will not regret it as I believe the long term value is higher and short term share price gyrations are unpredictable.
I believe I'll make more money on the 1.66p buy than the others , as I bought lower, but I believe I'll make money on all of them.
Closed with FTSE100 2.6% up, FTSE250 down 1.9% and AIM up 1% . SEE down 2.8%. I'm encouraged that all these changes are more "normal" especially going into the weekend. Hoping for a few more days of relative calm but we'll see...
Almost all of those Dow losses came when London stock exchange was still open so they should already be priced in to London stock prices. More useful to watch what happens in Asia overnight. My guess is that Asia needs to drop 7% just to catch up with losses already priced into Europe & US. More or less than that could give us a clue where we might open in London.
Picked up £8k at 2.7. I know that won't seem the smartest if we see another 10% lopped off tomorrow but the timing of the turnaround in the market can't be predicted and I'd hate for the share price to be going up through 4.5 while knowing I could have bought at these levels but didn't for holding out for more.
I think it is very charitable to term these people "spiv traders" and portray them as executing some sort of money making scheme, manipulating share prices through their posts. Anyone who thinks they significantly move the share price with what they post on here is sadly deluded.
It is far more likely that those "spiv traders" you see on the various bulletin boards are there because either:
(i) They simply have no mates and seek to generate attention by being contrary or
(ii) More worryingly, they are buy high, sell low investors. "Buy low sell high" is the world's most obvious investing advice but it is surprising difficult to put it into action. Almost all of us will be pleased when the price rises and upset when it falls and it is difficult to not let that cloud your judgement. Many people are far too influenced by their emotional reaction to the current share price. "The share price is high so I like the company and I'm happy and I might buy more" or "The share price is low so they must be a terrible company and I hate them and I can't believe I invested in them so I'm selling". Psychologically, it is difficult for everyone to retain faith in their knowledge of a share's value and not be emotionally swayed by the share's price but that is what is necessary for buy low, sell high to succeed.
EyeTracking "never try to prove you’re right and the market is wrong" ??? Ermmmmm???
The whole idea of investing is to buy something because you think the price it is available at (ie the market) is lower than you think it should be. You then hope to subsequently, at some point, be proven right (and the market wrong) by a rise in the share price. If we should really "never try to prove you’re right and the market is wrong".. then we can all sell all our holdings, bung the money in a tracker fund and be done with it.
I see low volatility in the price as good. I think the historic volatility of SEE share price could be one of the factors behind SEE being undervalued (in my humble opinion).
When City types need to make an investment decision, they have often done this (or justified their decisions) using risk v reward calculations with historic volatility in price used as a proxy for future risk. Famously this backfired in the financial crisis where risk had been under-calculated partly because of this. Historically, mortgage related securities had not had a volatile price so when volatility was used as a proxy for future risk, future risk was massively underestimated contributing to the securities being massively overvalued and organisations being massively overexposed to mortgage related securities.
There has been an increase in awareness of how poor volatility is as a proxy for future risk but the trouble is, historic volatility is so easy to quantify and other risk measures are very hard to quantify. It is still very tempting to use historic volatility in valuation models.
Historically, SEE share price has been very volatile so that could make SEE look like a very risk investment, leading to lower valuations. However, this could be false as the level of past volatility in SEE share price tell us little about the likelihood of SEE achieving its business goals in the future and so creating (or losing ) wealth for us investors.
I know it is exciting to see the share price jump up and down but more stability can't be bad for the share price ultimately matching up with the true potential of the company.
SEE are playing small games and big games at the same time.
The big games have huge huge pay off potential that would be life changing for us with decent holdings...
The small games provide relatively small revenue and profit but keep the business going until the big games can pay off.
I feel that in reaction to recent results, some are confusing the small game and the big game.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law
Godwin's law is an Internet adage asserting that "As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1"; that is, if an online discussion (regardless of topic or scope) goes on long enough, sooner or later someone will compare someone or something to Adolf Hitler or his deeds, the point at which effectively the discussion or thread often ends."
From today's note:
"Fleet business... should drive the company to profitability, even with conservative expectations. Whilst the cash headroom looks slim, we continue to note that our forecasts do not include any contribution from the Aviation sector, and we believe it would not be difficult to finance against the current cA$13m high margin recurring revenue stream. "
I don't think this has become an echo chamber any more than most bulletin boards. All have that tendency to some extent. Difference here is that among the noise, people are still regularly posting information that I find valuable. I look at this board at least once every day, and I can't say I do anything like that for any other investment I have. I'm not coming here to watch the soap opera, I come for the valuable info posted.
Why am I bothering to say this? Because I want to say "thank you" to everyone posting information on here. I hope you all continue, whether I agree with your interpretation or not.