The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I'd suggest that there almost certainly won't be a dividend this year as they have a cash flow problem.
I agree, if demand is high enough they would be able to price at a level that would provide funding for expansion.
A quote from John Maynard Keynes comes to mind -
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Does any one have any idea how much spare capacity they have before they will have to invest in more kit?
Think this quote from John Maynard Keynes may be apt, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." That is to say it is nearly impossible to predict the markets and those who try, may find themselves in over their head.
https://www.amatiglobal.com/storage/1196/Amati-AIM-VCT-March-2023.pdf
From Amati VCT March update "Some small holdings were also exited during the month, including Angle, Amryt Pharma and In The Style." They were strong supporters at one stage and I believe featured Angle as a star investment at an AGM.
Might well be a pension fund or funds. Many are having to raise liquidity and are forced sellers, preferring to sell equity holdings rather than add to the downward spiral in gilt prices.
I think those who were looking for a quick profit on the FDA announcement are bailing. Since the company had been asserting that they were confident of achieving this, the actual announcement wouldn't make much difference to the valuation attributed by long term holders. If you are prepared to invest and wait 5 years you will probably get a good return, but if you are looking do double your money over the next month, this is probably not the share for you.
Bearing in mind this company has large intangible assets in terms of intellectual property, almost certainly understated in the balance sheet, and a "wide moat" relating to competitors, once they have established that there is a strong and ongoing demand for their products from established industry players, they will have a strong proposition to put to bankers for simple bank funding or the issue of bonds.
My guess is that as soon as a defect is identified in a submission it will be rejected, while those with no obvious reason for rejection carry on through the assessment process. Which means the odds on approval improve with time.
Perhaps the problem is that the FDA anticipate that a lot of reliance will be placed on this and so needs to be certain that the product can be produced at a sufficiently high standard that rogue product giving incorrect results could not find its way to clinicians.
Someone can at the same time be an outstanding leading scientist and technician while being an incompetent business person.
I find comfort in the fact that the extortionate amount of time taken to get approvals indicates that this company will have a very wide and deep moat to protect it from competition once it starts to develop profitable and growing turnover at a high margin.
Don't expect dividends for a few years. If demand takes off they will need to invest in more reactors. They have the space. Much better long term to invest in a profitable business than pay a dividend and miss opportunities for profit. Shareholders can take capital gains rather then dividends.
I'd point out that people build up ISAs and there are quite a few with more than £1m in an ISA. Hence they may well have trades considerably higher than £30K.
Charting has its place if you are a trading investor. Essentially you are trying to establish when a share is over or under valued and buy or sell accordingly. If you are a long term investor who can't be bothered with detailed constant tracking then you just accept that share prices go up and down but so long as you believe the fundamentals of a company offer value you remain invested.
Air freight would seem to be standard - this from the report "Further significant reduction of the Group's overall carbon footprint has been achieved by having a US coatings facility. Previously, all products coated for North American customers were airfreighted to the UK and back again to the customer."
Looking at the Airbus website re. suppliers it would appear that once you are established as a supplier approvals should become easier. Presumably initially much of the testing would have been about establishing that the quality of the output was of a quality and consistency required. While the new units may be larger, the concept and methods are presumably the same. With luck this should mean that it will be easier to get approval. Unfortunately one of the unknown unknowns relating to this share.
I don't think a slow down in new aircraft production will necessarily be a problem. Turbine blades often need to be refurbished or replaced so the tungsten coating will still be required. Same applies to the large turbines used in electricity production. Engine manufacturers usually make more profit from selling spares than from the sale of the original engine.