RE: I want them to9 Oct 2019 22:31
Let’s try and put some numbers on this Lenovo “commercial agreement”
There are around 6,000 secondary schools and higher education colleges in UK. You can be sure that not every student will be sat all day, every day, wearing a VR headset while the teacher plays Candy Crush on his/her iPhone. No, it’s for a specialist class, including careers guidance.
Perhaps 20 VR headsets would allow the whole school of 800 students to use them for 4 hours a week, although the careers software is for the more senior classes.
The VR sets cost $1000 each.
So the maximum market up to total saturation is 20 x 6000 x 1000 = 120 million dollars for Lenovo, but that will never happen and definitely not in year one. Many schools will meet the Gatsby benchmarks through the talents of teachers to inspire the imaginations of children, as all the best schools have always done for centuries.
The Victar software is preloaded on the VR headsets as part of the commercial agreement, just like MacAfee is preloaded on your PC, but you need to buy a licence key to access it. How many schools will do that? How many folks buy MacAfee?
Surely the licence key is a fraction of the cost of the headset? I have never seen evidence of £20k for a licence as is touted on social media.
If the take up of VR headsets is 80% over three years and the Victar licence is say $250 per unit, and only half the schools buy the licence, the result is …
6000 x 0.8 x 0.5 x 250 / 3 = $200,000 per incremental year, leading to a sustainable income after year 3 of $600k.
You can multiply this income by 10 or 100 and it’s nice business but not Office 365 or a disruptive technology.
As many have said, we need the company to provide some real numbers and until they do there is no incentive to invest.