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Absolute clown show - goes to the media and gives an impression that Shell is making "more money than God" as ExxonMobil is actually doing. And the next day company says we are not good at out jobs of making profits. This is what happens when management is detached from shareholders expectations and busy losing money and then asking to be taxed. He is definitely going out with not much fond memories for the shareholders or any parting gifts.
Cheers dip. That's helpful.
Say what you will - but GGP made a great call with sorting the funding issues before the currency and interest rates market blew up. With the development capex and equity funding sorted - before the GBPeso went into gutter thanks to you know who - ggp definitely has derisked a lot. Then the Feasibility study this quarter should reaffirm the IRRs that Hav has. It would attract a ton of attention from other suitors apart from NC, and for other licenses, especially Hav look alike ones. Its all about IRRs.
One silver lining of the pound collapse is that its better to be holding gold or GGP, than the pound as cash. All imo.
Cheers all for the links and pointers. My previous thread seems to have gone missing.
Zoros' post on timelines for future catalysts was helpful.
What are peoples thoughts on the Feasibility Study due this quarter? Are we expecting it to be transformational in any way or do people reckon we have it baked in the share price already given the funding raised?
Cheers all.
Mark- the $60mn valuation I'm looking at is from a floor price perspective. So if I know that 5% was valued at $60mn, for x reserves then by doubling that x reserve doubles the 5% valuation? So the same 5% becomes $120mn worth if the reserves are doubled from the time of last valuation. Then very simply our 30% of Hav should be valued at around £600mn or 15p per share - of couurse its conservative as does not include non Hav assets. So basically the value and floor for the share price would be 15p at the back of Hav alone? Does that look right?
Drover - the 5% even though conservative will give an idea about the margin of safety in GGP as an investment at current market cap. So if someone puts in an offer for GGPs Hav share, the 5% share valuation might be taken as a benchmark for valuation of the entire GGPs 30% stake given its agreed with NC as a reasonable value amount. I'm still trying to find a list of bits on top of this valuation to come up with a per share value.
Btw apart from the PFS due in Q4 do we have a list of news or catalysts to look forward to?
Cheers lebugue.
San - Cheers. The reason I'm using the 5% valuation is because its a more or less market determined price for a significant part of GGP. So hence taking that valuation as a percentage of estimated reserves and then extrapolating that to extra reserves should give us theoretically the more or less true market determined value just for Hav and extended fields.
Lebugue- can you please point me to the sheet? Not heard about gggpchat sorry?
5% of GGPs Hav stake was valued at $60mn recently. That would put GGPs 30% at $360mn or roughly £310mn. Very close to current share price. So current share price is not accounting for anything over the $60mn valuation for 5% equivalent?
What other bits would you add on top of this $360mn number that would take into account the most conservative numbers? A sort of sum of the parts calculation? Cheers
Apologies if its been answered already.
Jerry - from the 12th sep RNS - "11.9 pence (representing a 45 per cent premium to 8.2 pence which was the price at which equity was issued in the recent placing announced on 24 August 2022 and a 46 per cent premium to the five-day volume weighted average share price to 9 September 2022)"
So the exercise price will be 11.9p at which 100mn shares will vest. Once that's exercised at 11.9p - the worth of the shares would be 100mn multiplied by the share price on the day or after. So if the chair exercises at let's say one the day the share price is 12.2p he will have 100mn shares - which can be chosen to be offloaded at 12p, 13p or 7p? Its basically free shares which can be sold on any days price ?
Not sure how you get 23.9p for £12mn? At 23.9p the 100mn shares would be worth £23.9mn? The Chair is not purchasing
Can someone please explain why the Non-Executive Chairman has been granted 100 mn share options?
from 12th Sep RNS, between the 3 directors that's about 200mn shares being awarded at a really low price of 11.9p .
At 11.9p, for the Chairman alone its close to £12mn windfall - and that much rise GGP can easily have due to gold/silver price rises. And they end up getting the benefit of that commodity rise as well? 11.9p is a really low bar, isnt it? Not like GGP doesn't have a derisked asset already?
Those two funds seem to have been hit harder than Ftse100. Hard to find 10% yielding stocks in uk with low risk. Sepl needs to have a yield of 9%+ to be enticing for the political risk associated so that there could be some more liquidity in here. The spread and liquidity are very off-putting for any decent size transactions.
Temple - curious what sort of funds do you have for income - mostly ETFs and closed end funds? Unfortunately UK doesn't have as many funds to invest in especially higher yielding ones. US has a decent range of income funds that pay out monthly dividends and currently given the wider stock market slide, have decent ETFs and CEFs funds yielding more than 10% even after the 15% withholding dividend tax. The downside for UK investors is that currently we have a weak pound due to the trussonomics effect, so losing fair bit in FX.
Agree with trek, DEC seems to come closest in terms of near 10% yielding bond equivalent type of security. Dec does have less volatility and more liquidity than sepl. With sepl I recall struggling to get any quotes for a decent sized sale transaction.
If the new assets purchased gives us exposure to the high nat gas prices by being unhedged volumes? At the current nat gas prices - the billion dollar hedge loss would have been a gain with share price double of today.
Even after the 15% withholding dividend tax, the yield at 1.15 GBP USD FX rate is above 9% at £1.30 per Share price.
If the share price moves in 10% range - this is as good as a 9% yielding bond post WHT.
Next year the low price locked hedge volumes drop to 80% - more exposure to upside and higher dividends. Surprised why DEC didn't buyback their hedges like quite a few US operators have done so that volumes get sold at market prices instead of locked low prices. The $1bn hedge loss could have wiped out the net debt all together?
Good to have management with such big holding and skin in the game.
Have you adjusted those numbers for GBP weakening against the USD by over 10% the past few weeks and months? If buybacks are getting converted daily from usd to gbp, then there is an additional boost to buyback volume.
And dividend yield with current exchange rate is above 4% which seems decent, only to be boosted by increasing the dividend further.
Little - how are you trading these? Curious to learn how people are trading, with what percentage of the holding and how they chose entry and exit points? Keen to learn and see if there is a way to boost holding by trading these especially with the management being so business as usual focus and possibly a 4% dividend yield with current gbp FX rates..?.
Little - that 21p for this quarter is mainly due to the FX rate for GBP being in the toilet. With the old 47c per quarter dividend should translate into above 40p per quarter if Shell choose to revert its dividend back to old levels.
Shell still saying that they will increase dividends after the buybacks reduce share count further - although what the spreadsheet experts at Shell don't understand is that if oil and gas prices drop back due to, say a peace deal in Ukraine - the Shell execs will find another excuse to not raise dividends by as much and all these buybacks would be under water. When prices are high shareholders should be rewarded and not wait for oil and gas prices to drop. New CEO will keep bau I think.
This management who is happy with business as usual don't need to put in too much effort. They just keeping WFH, no answering to shareholders with still dividend halved - let's hope a US investor takes a sizable stock position to flush these comfy execs. With the second biggest LNG business in the world - at a time with record LNG prices, if your share price, shareholder returns and market cap is not hitting record then you need some answers from these execs.
This from another bb summarizes well;
"The other 4 successors seem to be again from within the company! We need fresh blood, someone from outside the company preferably a US exec to undo the damage the current CEO did by cutting the dividend. More of the same is not the answer. It will just be a name change with the same BS strategy being followed."
Get an external American CEO and move the HQ to Houston.
Shell is still down 10% from yearly highs of £24.50. While bp is nearing its yearly high and catching on Shell YTD performance after they announced bigger dividends and buybacks than Shell. That's after their $25bn write down in Russia.
While Shell's CEO and management are busy asking enlightening questions like why is our share price so undervalued? If Shell's management don't know why our share price is so undervalued - and what can they do to increase its fair value - maybe they should move aside and let activist shareholders who know answers to such questions run the company.