RE: Coal shortage15 Jan 2023 18:24
Evening newfish, I hope that your keping well.
For my sins I do still have all my holding since 2009, although I obviously have traded along the way, and still do continue to add to this day when I have some spare funds, especially at todays prices. I will try to answer your question, but its probably easier just to put in in bullet points (in no particular order), in truth I probably believe more than ever now, that Phulbari is possible, BUT, it is a pure gamble, because obviously GCM, have no other investments and because it relying on the GoB and Hasina, which is a big gamble, so it’s an all or nothing bet.
• The elections will be held in late 2023 or early 2024, if not forced to be earlier, my hope is that Hasina will not remain in power because she is a massive stumbling block for Phulbari
• The worlds views on coal have changed and are now very much pro mining, although this will not remain so for long, so it is my opinion that it’s now or never that Phulbari has to be given the green light
• A positive is that Bangladesh needs coal, but obviously cannot afford to continue to import it, so Phulbari screams out to be the obvious thing to do
• You would not believe it, from the attitude from the GoB, but the value of lost crops is miniscule compared to the value of coal
• Combining coal with solar makes the whole project easier to sell to the people, so this was a great step by GCM to try and implement
• The big players, PC, Dyani, Tang etc are still fully committed, I am sure they would not be wasting their time if they did not think getting approval was positive.
• As if we did not know it before, but after reading about no coal being available at Rampal due to the government not being able to afford it, it makes it an even more compelling argument for Phulbari to be given the green light.
• And to finish, because of coal prices and availability, I feel that GCM, are now in a position to do a deal with the GoB and offer coal at a big discount to world prices, and still have a great return themselves ….
So yes, overall I do still believe in GCM, and Phulbari, but as I said previously it does worry me that we are relying on what appears to be a corrupt government so there is only a 50/50 chance I guess…. Unfortunately I am not going to be able to be at the AGM, but hopefully those that do go, will have some positive feedback to give…
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