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Back in to auction ..... Tick up coming

Looks like 7.75 is about to give way :)

Still in auction ..... Buying at 7.50 now though

Great news, and shows the confidence shown in GCM, I am soooooo pleased to finally have this out of the way!!!!

Looks like the Energy Ministry want to let the people know that they were working over EID

"Government workers have returned to their offices at the Secretariat – the heart of the administration – after five days off for the Eid and Bangla New Year holidays."

"Eradul Haque, deputy secretary at the Ministry of Power, told bdnews24.com that he was at the station on Eid day, but he went on a day trip to his village home in Bagerhat the day after Eid. He was at the office on time on Monday.

Power Secretary Habibur Rahman exchanged greetings with ministry colleagues in the morning."

https://bdnews24.com/amp/story/bangladesh%2Fqzffvcrnnb

Now the press are obviously back at work, it will be interesting to see if we get more articles or news on using own coal as we get closer to the 21st…

You would think that the power crisis would be at the top of their agenda and how to resolve it!!

Thankfully not to long to wait until we find out …

So it seems that the press are starting back up again after their holidays..........

Could the 21st April be an important date, I wonder if on their agenda they will have -

Item one - Discuss using own coal resources?? - Either way the question has to be asked soon

1st Meeting of Standing Committee on Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources

Date: 21-April-2024

Time: 11:00 AM

Location: Bangladesh Parliament

Venue: Cabinet Room

https://www.parliament.gov.bd/meeting-details/78/1st-meeting

Power cuts surge amid persisting heatwave!

“But power demand has begun crossing 12,000MW since April 13. On Monday, the highest load-shedding of 305MW was recorded at 10:00am.

Different parts of the capital suffered power outages more than once on Monday.

Bangladesh’s current installed power generation capacity is nearly 27,000MW. The fuel shortage owed to the dollar crisis keeps many power plants unused.”

https://www.newagebd.net/post/country/232697/power-cuts-surge-amid-persisting-heatwave

Nice to see and very positive imo .... :)

Yep, totally agree mankiniparty, as frustrating as it is to watch, as you say, its always going to get volatile, especially as if we believe we have a buyer in the background and they make every effort to get hold of as many shares as they possibly can... With only 355k shares traded and a drop of nearly 9% tells its own story imo

Doze…

You state ..

“If GCM are to be part of the mix going forward then Tang should raise finance post approval since we will need the working capital to boost the team and avoid unnecessary dilution.”

Trust me, if we get approval before a fund raise is done, then the SP will be a hell of a lot higher than it is now, so dilution will be even lower than I have suggested…

Conclusion

The above is an honest NO B/S review of how I see things as we stand, but because I keep coming back to the main question for me, would Nasrul Hamid and PowerChina publicly state that they were going to present the project to PM Hasina if they were not confident of the result being positive, I don’t think that they would, I have therefore decided that although nothing is 100%, I’m probably happier with my investment and feel more confident now than I have ever done!

I’ll be holding unless I feel the situation changes! 😊

Final Thought..

It really is each to their own now to make their decision especially with the conclusion hopefully coming sooner rather than later, but GL in what you decide…

Sorry for the long post :)

• At the AGM, Gary confirmed that they had done a lot on the ground with the Phulbari people and within the interview from Pappi it was said that the people of Phulbari had been offered 5 times the value of their property if they relocated, which they have said they do want to do! This point is important because Anu his mob of outside influences used them as an argument back in 2006 - In fact I can’t remember when now, and can’t find the article but I am sure that there was an occasion when a anti-mining group turned up in the village and the were chased out by the locals!

• Another massive positive, is that Anu and his anti-mining group have been very very quiet recently, in fact in one of the reports he even acknowledged that the government had not dealt with the energy crisis properly, so they now had little choice, but to now make another bad decision (in his mind) and now go ahead with developed of Phulbari as well as all other mines within the country.

Small negative seen by some (not by me) –

• Is the placing that we know is going to happen sometime before the end of “May”, IF we don’t have news form the government before then, which will obviously change everything!

• The placing as voted for at the AGM, can only be for a maximum of £1 million more if they have to take into consideration the other 500k already raised earlier, so, if done on Monday at a 25% discount from Fridays close of 9.50p will be at 7.12p and only be about 13 million extra shares in issue, this is nothing in the big scheme of things and, as the previous fundraiser the SP will only drop slightly back anyway so will not hit the 7p imo, I believe that because we know that news could come at any time the scramble for buying shares will be intense so I would expect a quick bounce back after a very short period, I also believe that most trying to buy any quantity cheaper will be unsuccessful because of the shortage of shares now believed to be in issue. This is obviously only if the F/R was done on Monday, if left until the end of May, who knows where the SP will be!

Actual Negative

• Although other options do appear to be very thin on the ground now because it seems Bangladesh simply cannot afford to continue to import coal to feed existing and newly up and coming coal fired plants, and although the Energy Minister Nasrul Hamid has been very positive about Phulbari and open pit mining as well as mining other coal mines within the country, and I honestly just cannot believe that he or PowerChina would be presenting this project to the PM if they were not 100% in their minds that they will get approval, it still does all comes down to one person’s decision!

I know that this is a long post, but while we are on a weekend relaxing, I decided once again to go over recent news articles and info from recent GCM RNS’s to make sure that I was looking at both sides of the arguments, obviously my investment is very important to me, and potentially life changing, so wanted to double / triple check that I wasn’t wearing rose tinted glasses and being blinded by my own positivity!!

POSITIVES –

• GCM, AGM, probably the most positive and informative that the company has ever presented.

• GCM End of Year Report, written by Gary, Keith and CWT, was probably the most detailed and positive update ever, lots to take in, but regards timescales they reported (more than once), that they were to have discussions with the newly elected government in first quarter 2024

• Power China, Infrastructure Construction and Overburden Stripping Contract RNS – “covering mine development works of approximately US$1 billion necessary to facilitate coal extraction at the Phulbari Coal and Power Project”

• “A joint proposal with development partner, PowerChina, will shortly be presented to the newly elected Bangladesh Government” PowerChina are not a two-bit company who would enter into this contract lightly, and would not be presenting in to the PM, if (imo) they were not confident of her saying yes!

• Tang / Polo’s loan, from the Interims – “The lender has agreed that it will not serve a repayment request on the company for 5 years from the date of the agreement replacing the previous provision that it was payable on demand with 90 days' notice.” (to do this Tang must be confident in taking this forward)

• Nusrul Hamid (Energy Minister) repeatedly in press interviews talking about Bangladesh needing to use own coal and specifically mentioning Phulbari and open pit mining, he has also stated that the proposal would be put to PM Hasina in first quarter of 2024

• Trading volume in last 3 months (Feb, March, April) is so far at £12.23 million pounds which is more than the last “8 months” trading put together which in total was only £2.08 million pounds, that in its self is a massive indicator that something is going on.

• Forex position in a dire state, and today stands at about 20 billion, (Just enough to get the IMF loan granted)

• General energy crises in a dire state, with power cuts for long periods daily, due to ALL fuel shortages go on throughout the whole country, we read about this daily.

• To me really “important” to note that there have still been no words from MP Hasina, even after all the press reports and video interviews stating that the country should use their own resources - this would of happened in the past

• The recent Power and Energy interview that Pappi kindly got translated, calling for the countries own coal to be mined, but specifically mentioning Phulbari all the way through the interview.

Hopefully Bangladesh will follow India’s example and become import free for coal in the coming years …

“The country for the first time crossed the milestone of 1 billion tonne of coal and lignite production in 2023-24, and is not very far from its next target to eliminate coal imports by 2025-26, Coal and Mines Minister Pralhad Joshi had earlier said.”

https://www.energybangla.com/india-by-year-end-20-coal-mines-likely-to-come-into-operation/

😂😂😂😂 how funny… pleased that I have been out for the morning now 🙄

Don’t honestly know what’s been said, and in truth I don’t really care…..

As I said yesterday, GL whatever your trading strategy 😊 pleased that I am in for the weekend though, because now all are going to be back from their Ramadan / EID holidays you just never know what’s going to be said in the press!

Have a nice afternoon and hope you bad boys play fair 😂😂

And no reason why we should not see exactly the same again in the next four months …

• We have a constant 100 / 200K buyer

• Positive news regularly in the press about mining own coal

• Nasrul Hamid (Energy Minister) stating in the press he recommends OPM at Phulbari

• GCM updates in recent RNS’s that they will be talking and engaging with the government in the 1st quarter of 2024

• Recent RNS about the “Phulbari Coal Mining Infrastructure Construction and Overburden Stripping Contract” covering mine development works of approximately US$1 billion necessary to facilitate coal extraction at the Phulbari Coal

• All the other company RNS’s with really informative information of what’s happening and how we are moving forward

• With all this press speculation, there has been no negative reports within the press or riots on the streets as in 2006

• With all this press speculation, there has been no word or negative comments by PM Hasina (This would of and has happened in the past)

So as I say, there is no reason why we should not see another 1000% in the coming months, LTH will all tell you that we have all seen this and more in the past…

The only thing I would say, is JUST ONE comment from either PM Hasina or from Nasrul Hamid that they are going to Open Pit Mine Phulbari, then all bets are off as to the timescale of that rise 😂😂

GL all, whatever your trading strategy!

10p close, so nicely into double figures, and hopefully with the weekend upon us and the press starting up again after their holidays, you would like to think that people will be holding and buying, not selling, so should also be a good end to the week as well.. :)

Famous last words, I know, but looks like another solid day that should finish blue again, and hopefully be the day that we finally once and for all, say goodbye to single figures ;)

While everyone is at lunch, it looks like they took another 100k lol

2024-04-11 13:03:52 10.20 100,000 £10,200