Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Cheers pmjh, I thought so. I think that penny is dropping faster than we expected with regards to the role of Interferon.
This just proves how hard SNG have been working behind the scenes and the progress they're making without announcing every bit of little news. I'm hoping we get that Activ-2 RNS soon though as we seem to be gathering major momentum, and get us back to the level that truly reflects the stage of our development and the progress we've made.
I'm very happy with the BBC's coverage and but to be honest I'm wondering why we haven't had the mass coverage this morning, surely they had enough time to pick the story up. If the BBC have covered it already this morning then I'm doubtful any other media outlets will run the same story tomorrow. I hope they do though.
Faye - a more accurate analogy would be why a company like Facebook would buy Whatsapp or why a company like Amazon would buy Twitch. Your Tesco/corner shop analogy makes no sense as you're implying Tesco already has the product in question rendering the corner shop obsolete.
You're so clueless that you give Whylie a run for his/her money.
Cheers for the reply Davey. I was just thinking about whether moving over to the main market may have a somewhat negative effect on the SP or not.
I've never been involved in a stock that's changed markets before so this is new to me. Would the SP be the same once the stock switches over or would there be any changes?
Does anybody think that the move to the main market may lessen the effect to the SP on TLD release?
I assume that the release of TLD should ordinarily be a positive rise on the SP (by how much, who knows). But will the move to the main market lessen the SP rise in anybody's opinion by way of some warped form of dilution, or would we most likely see a normal reaction of the SP?
CW, POI and Oxford. Glad to hear you'll all be seeing this through to the end as well. We'll have gone through so much up until that point so waiting a little while longer wouldn't be too unreasonable for me.
CW - your number predictions are similar to mine but I'm thinking the pre-readout figure may be a little higher on the back of home trials and EUAs. But your post-approval and roll-out predictions are very realistic in my opinion. I just hope the roll-out that occurs after P3 read-out can keep the SP steady, afloat and rising until our journey here comes to an end. I hope we don't see any dips or tanks in that period but if the roll-out after P3 readout is consistent and successful then I don't see why there would be.
POI - that figure of £20 would be the dream ending to this journey and I don't think it's unrealistic to be thinking of figures like that. RM himself has alluded to companies post-approval being bought out for huge numbers and I think our product could be invaluable.
Oxford - I couldn't agree more. I can see this journey ending within a few months and I'm looking forward to it. I doubt we'll ever see a share like this again and I'm happy to hold too.
All speculation (but educated speculation) of course but no harm in it. Wishing everyone the best of luck here.
Ghia - that's a good point about P2. I remember the uncertainty during that period and how quickly the plans seemed to change and how all of our timelines changed after weeks of waiting. I agree when you say it'll be a clear roadmap after P3 results.
I've recently gone back to the webinar and presentations and I feel more encouraged than ever that we're heading for a specific event after P3 results and approval.
Thanks again for the replies Ghia.
Ghia - many thanks for your reply. It's reassuring to know that others such as yourself will be seeing this through past P3 results right to the end. There's been a lot of negativity on this board as of late but my plan of holding past P3 results to partnership/licensing/takeover has never changed, so it's pleasing to hear that LTHs still realise the potential here and will be doing the same.
It's been a turbulent few weeks with vaccine news so I can't imagine anyone who held past P2 results has had the most comfortable of holds here, and I'm sure those that didn't sell a single share on P2 results have second-guessed their decision not to do so many times. I often think about holding past P3 results and the nerves of steel that will be required for it, but it seems like it will be a very different story and I think when the time comes the LTHs will be a lot calmer this time around as we approach the endgame.
Ghia - speculation is definitely more than welcome. I appreciate threads like these as clearly this is what we're all here for.
Mid-March for a P3 readout and shipping in April sounds very reasonable. However I think, and all speculation again of course, that we'll have home trial results and a possible EUA or two by P3 readout which will do wonders for the SP. This will hold it steady until the P3 readout which I'm assuming will have an effect not too dissimilar to Manic Monday. Therefore I'm going with a March - May SP of £6-8 (conservative), and then with product being shipped after that a steady tick up from there past the £10 mark into the summer. Hopefully a buyout between £15 - £25 in Q3.
I find your speculation about SNG ceasing to exist in Q3 very interesting Ghia. I know this is a personal question for many but would I be forgiven for assuming that you'll be holding no matter what past the P3 results for that potential buyout in Q3?
Bumping this thread as I think the original post was a great post. However I agree with Vorag, I think the third week is too early for FDA approval and half way through Feb for interim results is optimistic, however not totally impossible. With a whole arm of the trial of 300 patients being eradicated I do think we'll see results quicker but the primary endpoints still remain.
I like the idea of the product being produced as early as March with the £8-10 SP at that point. Ambitious, but I like it.
Very curious to know what everyone else's thoughts are on the original post timeline.
Thoroughly enjoyed this thread. I don't doubt the numbers that have been discussed here; the science is good enough for the company to get there eventually in my opinion. Still a few doubters but I'm sure opinions will change once P3 starts and sales start going through. Those bull cases will suddenly start to resurface.
No problem, sorry I can't be of more help just yet with that!
I can't imagine short stay departments such as A&E or AMU having too much experience with MAPs with the time it apparently takes to source medications via that route. So I'll no doubt have better luck with the guys over in ICU/CC/Resp regarding MAP as they're more likely to have more experience with this.
Oil - I don't know much about it I'm afraid because I haven't come across any consultants who've used it thus far so no real answers of substance just yet. The one I did ask after our MAP & Clinigen RNS came through though just told me a bit about how it works, in that medications can be requested and ordered only by the patient's responsible consultant for an experimental drug if certain criteria are met such as if all therapeutic avenues have already been tried already or if the benefits outweigh the risks, so long as the experimental drug has the backing of local law. Apparently it takes ages. It sounds very possible to do but I haven't heard of it happening yet for us and I'm not sure how our drug ties in with the MAP, what the relationship is between our trials and MAPs, and what the criteria are for SNG001 to be accessed through this programme either in or out of hospital. I'll ask around and let you know what I find out.
Bella - no worries.
Scinv - no problem. I don't think they do it for admissions or long-term patients but more of a general surveillance scheme which can either be on site or off site? I also suspect the data would be anonymised as well. I'm not certain on this though so if you manage to find out do let us know.
Yeah I agree, it differs on area for sure. There's a hospital I know not far from mine that's doing alright with cases and capacity which is strange.
Artdralor - I haven't asked them about Synairgen yet because the opportunity has never come up to be honest. But I'll be closer to the guys in Respiratory and Intensive Care next year so I'll be able to ask them about it then. I'd be more than happy to update the board when I get any useful information though (if it's legally appropriate!).
Bella - that's quite alright, I'm a doctor. I don't think I've answered it previously. As far as I'm aware there are a few of us on here so I've never brought it up myself.
Scinv, I'm not sure about the sampling and the parties analysing the samples but as far as I know they're being tested with the standard combined throat and nose swabs (as well as acute serological samples being taken for other viruses if needed such as Influenza A, Influenza B and RSV), and analysed in house with the results being back within a couple of hours. I'm not sure if that was what you meant or not but apologies if I've misunderstood your question.
In answer to your second question, the majority of patients that present are having some form of exacerbation anyway so generally a lot of them are being admitted. I'm not sure how many of those admissions progress to severe disease but I was having a chat to them about the ICUs as well which might answer the question.
The ICUs are apparently struggling to accommodate the rise in Covid cases again and space is running out for patients requiring ventilation, CPAPs and recovery beds in general as daily admissions are ticking up. Elderly patients sometimes aren't even being seen at all in the demographic of admissions this time around, with a lot of them being younger and healthier in their 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s. A lot of them have been ventilated for a while and complications are making recovery a painstaking process for some of them. Bacterial pneumonias secondary to Covid Pneumonitis, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, renal failure, decompensated sepsis with multi-organ failure, as well as other progressions, seem to be big complications in ICUs at the minute and causes that seem to be tragically affecting a lot of the ICU patients of all ages this time around, no matter how young or old they are. There are patients that do end up getting discharged quite soon after adequate treatment, provided they respond to treatment the first time around (getting tested upon discharge as well), but there are a lot of patients that are being admitted longer-term due to disease progression too. The effects and after-effects of Covid are very real with a lot of admissions turning into long-term patients not only on the pop-up Covid wards but in the ICUs as well.
Herd immunity via mass vaccination was a concept that seemed for all the world like it was going to end this pandemic once and for all within months. However we now know that it will take years for herd immunity to be achieved this way. With manufacturers not being able to churn out the sheer amount of doses we need in time, lack of vaccine uptake by the public, as well as populations such as pregnant women who fit the exclusion criteria during vaccine trials and therefore for whom we don't know for certain whether it would be safe for them to be vaccinated yet (therefore risks vs benefits having to be considered for these people), it's going to take a long time for vaccines to have an impact such that the virus can be deemed under control.
My colleagues in the Acute Medical Unit are telling me that almost every patient they're seeing seems to be testing positive Covid-19 at the moment. All the Covid wards at my hospital are now full again for the first time since the first wave and just like in the first wave, we're prepping to spill into another ward next door to keep it confined to one floor at the hospital. My former colleagues in General Practice have told me they're already struggling with the vaccinations due to a lack of rooms and understaffing. Each person that gets dosed has to be observed for 15 minutes to make sure no serious reactions occur after the recent allergic reactions that have occurred in the UK. This has all consequently led to a huge slowing down in vaccinations.
The dissemination of the new VUI-202012/01 variant has already occurred with it already being detected in Scotland, Wales, Netherlands, Denmark, Gibraltar, Italy, and Australia. Unfortunately, an increased transmissibility via a higher viral load particularly via the N501Y mutation in the spike protein's RBD and therefore an increased uptake through ACE2 receptors, may likely lead to an increase in cases and therefore potentially an increase in exacerbations, admissions, and deaths. Like the '20A.EU1' variant, VUI-202012/01's evolutionary changes have allowed it to spread easier (and possibly spread easier in children too). It now has the potential to become the new predominant variant in not just Europe but around the globe.
With an increase in lateral flow testing in particular, I suspect the filling of the home trials will speed up exponentially. With a smaller amount of patients now needed in the fast-tracked Phase III trial, SNG001 now has the opportunity to get back in the running - to get enough patients dosed and quickly analysed for urgent action to be taken. Whether that's via home trials, Phase III, Activ-2/Warpspeed across the pond, or closer to home, Synairgen are back in the race and will in my opinion provide governments around the globe with the quick answer to this pandemic they've all been looking for. And if our drug is as effective as we think it is, then it's going to be needed for a long, long time.