Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Oak, they crack me up. I've never known so many nobodies comment on a measly £2 share all at once.
Am I reading this right? Was he previously at AstraZeneca as director of global marketing, or have I got the wrong Hennings...
This appointment of Hennings seems as big as or even bigger than Tils's appointment of Neil Graham back in January. It's massive.
Aj, your P3 prediction is similar to mine.
Just to clarify though are you saying that £10 is unachievable when it's all said and done or just after P3 results? Because I think £10+ isn't beyond the realm of possibility at all post-results, even in the current situation. Just my view.
Totally agree White-Rabbit, some good points there yourself. Valuation of this drug is hard to price and it's importance on the front lines can't be emphasised enough if results are good enough which the science alludes to them being anyway. Fluctuations between now and P3 results are to be expected but come results day they will not have mattered in the grand scheme of things.
Agree with this thread Oak. I'm all up for discussion whether positive or negative, but I don't understand why anyone cares whether you're buying or selling.
Just spare us the theatrics because literally noone cares either way.
Hi Mact. It's of popular opinion that we'll be seeing another wave within the next few weeks to months. The B.1.351 and B.1.617 variants are posing a few dangers, particularly with the possibility that B.1.351 may actually be able to evade the Pfizer vaccine now too and herd immunity not even reached yet. I feel like we've lifted restrictions too early even though I'm in agreement that they're going to have to be lifted sooner or later. The R rate's already started to increase already in the UK. Give it a few weeks and we'll surely see whatever repercussions this has all brought about. We've put up a good fight with vaccination efforts but unfortunately this virus has put up an even stronger one and unfortunately it'll most likely hit us again.
Spot on Ghia. Interim CFO at this stage speaks volumes. Clearly massive things beyond the realm of simply analysing HT data going on behind closed doors at the moment. They can take all the time they like but for an interim CFO to have been appointed then in my opinion they've already looked beyond HT data release and are preparing for the final act.
Matt - share suspension after HT results drop would be the dream. I'll hold my horses for now and suggest share suspension upon HT results, Activ-2 to 3 progression and an EUA. But exciting to be having these talks anyhow nonetheless, we've waited far too long.
It's a tad frustrating that it's progressing as slowly as it is. Logistically I understand that a trial of this magnitude is a herculean effort in itself, but when we heard the words 'two months at the quickest and five months at the slowest' I wasn't expecting to still be recruiting five months down the line.
For this reason I'm assuming RM had a plan in place at the time he said those words, or maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I'd be very surprised if primary completion date isn't met in 10 days time given how long we've been recruiting globally and hopefully those extra recruiting sites won't be needed even though a global cohort of patients from multiple backgrounds was what RM was after. Most likely wishful thinking though, seeing as though we're seeing that some sites have only just began recruiting.
Spin, I agree with you and you've made some really good points there. The cat could well be skinned with this issue but with India, Brazil and also Europe possibly about the join the fray I have a feeling volume won't be an issue just yet. I don't actually think the £2000 cost is final and may be tweaked further still but probably not by much initially. I have a feeling a temporary price tag could remain while the company covers it's costs with bulk buying from governments during this pandemic, but as we head into licensing or buyout territory we may well see the drug rebranded in the same nature as Remdesivir and the price altered to reflect longevity in sales by which time we should be in a better position regarding risks and R&D to make those amends. I'd hate to imply that we could be seen as opportunists taking advantage of the pandemic but what I'm implying is that the company may easily cover its initial costs before this pandemic's over.
Our annual R&D thereafter and once we're established could be taken care of with healthcare systems asking for our product in bulk for not only a home setting but hospital setting (including ITU use too?) which would be our longevity in sales taken care of (considering that NHS prices can cost upwards of 1k for some anaesthesia shots and orthopaedic costs, and upwards of 2-3k for other operations, I think an effective treatment like ours would be in reasonable demand if it delivers and is 'widely required' as you quite rightly said). Not to mention that even if Boris and co would want something sub-£500 then his lot can take however much they need but there are certainly other countries that could be queueing up for the rest. In an ideal world our cost would be manageable and not unreasonable so that only the elite can profit, and if it does come to light that the price tag has been finalised which I'm sure we'll hear about soon once pre-orders start coming in then longevity in sales shouldn't be an issue. At least not until a kind soul offers to partner up with us or buy us out. Thoughts on all of this would be welcome.
Doc, your post about the name of the drug cracked me up. Never change mate. Jokes aside though I'm sure the name will change soon enough, much like Remdesivir got the brand name of Veklury months after it received recognition during this pandemic.
Many thanks all. Excuse the tardiness of my reply, been a busy day.
Ghia - I must have missed that advert but cheers for the info. Heading an anti-virals taskforce and being told to only come up with two treatments wouldn't have been much of a taskforce so in the very unlikely event that we weren't one of the two then I'd like to think we'd surely be amongst the other 'pipeline' options. But again, that's the worst case scenario which in my opinion isn't worth pursuing because we know what we have here and like you say, our chances are good.
Spin - very good points raised particularly with your standard of care points. It got me thinking though and usually I'd say I agree with that because you're right - we haven't got that sort of testing on the doors in the NHS yet. However I think interferon beta has been shown to bolster and individual's immune system regardless of interferon deficiency or genetic predisposition and therefore the pulling power of SNG001 may well encroach into the wider demographic of hospitalised patients, and not only the high-risk. And in saying that, I think the ball's in our court in terms of pricing once we jump these final couple of hurdles in the next few weeks. I do think EUA's will demand pricing figures too but I'd be surprised if these weren't ironed out already by now seeing as though manufacturing processes will be under way. Matt's point of Eli Lilly's $2bn from a quarter of their mAb sales speaks volumes of what we could be demanding. Let alone the UK's and U.S.'s orders of AZ's AZD7442 mAb treatments which I haven't heard about since.
A balanced view and argument is needed here and it's important to consider all of these treatments as potential sticking points. I'm going to say that there's a moderate chance that we could be looking at PF-07321332 and Molnupiravir as being the other oral treatments that could emerge along with us and among the treatment options. Both PF-07321332 and Molnupiravir sound very promising and their progress in trials is something I'm watching like a hawk at the moment, but PF-07321332 is in its very early stages and I can't see them emerging before us. In my opinion those two drugs are still quite some way off, much further behind us in terms of trials, haven't jumped through as many hoops as we have, and don't have the clinical backing of medics around the world like we do, especially with the ACE2 receptor science being one of the last missing pieces of the interferon puzzle that slotted into place very recently and the limelight that interferon beta has enjoyed in recent times.
There may be other oral treatments I've missed, but I've listed some of the major players here. And after reviewing all of these potential competitors ad nauseum over the past 24 hours, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and say that I believe SNG001 will be first to cross the line and become one of the main established treatments of choice for Covid-19 once results are out and if they're a success, and if successful then the UK government will surely want to be first in the queue to buy in bulk. Of all the aforementioned drugs, regulatory bodies would surely have the least trouble seeing SNG001 across the finish line after everything we will have proved when the time comes. Fair play to the other emerging suitors, but there's nobody else that's made the airwaves in the science world like we have up until now.
I'm happy to be corrected on any of the above. Nothing is to be taken as medical advice of course and this is all just my opinion and nothing more. Take care all.
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5) Ivermectin. This is an anti-parasitic drug that's been found to inhibit replication of SARS-CoV-2. A small trial was done on 72 patients in a hospital in Bangladesh I believe, where they tested the drug against three groups of hospitalised patients. The first group being used was a group that was given just the Ivermectin drug alone on hospitalised patients with Covid-19, the second group used were given Ivermectin in conjunction with an antibiotic which proved to be less effective, and the third group was just the placebo group. As far as I know, the initial group of patients that were given a five-day course of Ivermectin alone showed progress, but again it was a small trial so more data's probably required here.
6) Pfizer's PF-07321332. This is a protease inhibitor that's shown anti-viral activity against other coronaviruses as well as SARS-CoV-2. It targets the 3CL protease of the virus which the virus uses to, in layman's terms, break up longer protein chains or polyproteins into smaller protein chains so the virus can use those smaller protein chains to make more copies of itself. Quite innovative I must say and I hope they do well with this one, but it's a drug that's in its infancy at the moment with only being in P1 of clinical trials. It'll be a while before we see this come to fruition but I'm sure we'll be hearing more about it in the near future.
7) Merck's Molnupiravir. This is one of the promising front-runners in terms of outpatient treatment of Covid-19. This is a drug that's been showing promise in terms of replication inhibition in RNA viruses. In a P2 trial, statistical significance was found between number of patients that had negative nose cultures after five days compared with the placebo group, and a potential link was also found between a reduction in transmission. However, I don't think their hospital trial is going very well and as far as I can tell they've switched their efforts to the home setting. The drug's hospital trial showed no clinical benefit in hospitalised patients and therefore won't be proceeding to P3, however their outpatient trial has progressed to P3 to evaluate the efficacy of the 800mg twice daily dose of the drug. Don't quote me on that though but I think that's correct.
8) SNG001. An inhaled anti-viral agent containing interferon beta, a naturally occurring protein in the body and an existing treatment for MS. Our P2's (SG016) hospital arm was a huge success. SG016's hospital arm showed a staggering result with a special mention by Matt H in the House of Commons last summer. SG016's home arm has finished and results are due imminently, Activ-2 is underway, and our P3 (SG018) is being fast-tracked on a global scale and recruiting 610 patients worldwide. A publication in the Lancet, the short ACE2 receptor out in the open, and manufacturing being scaled up, something tells me Synairgen are on the brink after over a decade of waiting in the wings to emerge onto the world stage.
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