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degsy - do you know how to read an rns

mr ferguson's tr1 states non uk issuer. Non uk issuers are required to declare at 5% holding

did you see a trade on the market today for 16m shares - because I didn't. Mr ferguson will not have bought the vast majority of the volume today in the sizes shown in the trades reported today.

Had he taken that much today, as well as all the other buyers then this will have been much higher.

He has steadily bought at lower prices over a period of time and then a purchase today has taken him over 5% and he has declared in accordance with DTR.

Do you actually know what you are doing or just punting.

This has US$39.3 million NPV10 assigned to 2.5 MMbbl 2P gross oil reserves, which is about £30m - Paul was complaining when the mcap was £8.7m and did not reflect this value.
He felt the valuation anomaly would close. He was correct and here we are with a mcap of £27m

its about there and the market is now valuing this at that NPV based on what has been seen so far.

Whilst it doesn't show anything for the 2C gross contingent resources of 72.9 MMbbls of oil and 626 BCF of gas across the three licences, it may begin to when these get proved up further, however, for now, the market feels that the full valuation for the 2p is about right.

sentiment may drive it further, one way or the other, however, 10p is where i felt it was correctly priced, for where they are in the development program now, after the WR initial rns.

Mr Ferguson has likely been buying over a protracted period at way below these prices and only went above the notifiable threshold today - hence the rns. I suspect his overall cost price is much lower than people are buying at today. If such a large buyer has completed his buying, then a large player, soaking up any sells has gone. If the buy side volume is not replaced, then this will come down.

yes - we will - been waiting for this to begin its upward move

no - i would say they are telling the truth, however, even they do not know what the ultimate production profile will be until they are pumping daily.

I expect it to be throttled back to preserve well integrity and keep it on production for as long as possible, as it will be feeding the cost base of the future plans for this company - they have several drills line up and they do need to book some more revenue, because, despite they hype, they are still loss making, from a balance sheet perspective at this time.

possibly little earn and we may have something that actually delivers on this market for once.

I have been investing and trading the AIM market for twelve years and when I see a stock do a vertical lift off, like this has, no matter how good the news, I top slice, book profits and wait for the retrace - it usually comes soon enough.

degsy - that is right 1100bpd - that is barrels of fluid per day - they have not stated an exact BOPD - barrels of oil per day.

These are aim stocks and you must read the fine print.

They state - some of the best in georgia - that is fine, however, that is window dressing an rns - the details are in the fact that they used BPD and not bopd - I have seen aim stocks give high bpd rates before only for the well to be high water cut and the ultimate bopd be much lower and investors get spiked.

This is aim - trust nothing

degsy..

The well flowed at 1500bpd not bopd and that was a combination of drilling fluids and oil.
it stabilised at 1100bpd not bopd - they made no mention of whether it was oil or oil and water.

They may put this on production at a much lower level, for a longer more stable production rate.

If an rns drops stating a much, much lower production rate, after the initial run, whether intentional or not and they decide to keep it there, then some may be heading for the exits, fast, after such a meteoric rise.

thanks gary.

Yep - definitely had a few stocks I would rather forget over the years - all makes it worthwhile when a stock like Block gives a good return, with a good story to tell.

gary,

no problem - looks like you have been in this game a while then!!!

level 2 gives you a deeper view of the order book, so that you can see how deep the market is on a stock.

Level 1 just gives you what you see here, albeit live and not delayed - bid/offer volume, trade, price

level 2 you can see which mm are on which side, how many buy/sell orders are waiting to be executed.

DMA - direct market access, meaning dealing directly with the market and not polling the RSP's is a completely different thing, although if you put your order directly onto the market and it is queued, you should be able to see it on level 2, depending on the stock you are trading - SETS you should see no problem, some AIM stocks just show where the MM's are positioned.

Level2 is great if you trade frequently, but of little use, if you are position trading or simply holding long for an indeterminate timeframe.

I guess we should be thinking - 1100bpd from this 522 metre horizontal. Perhaps another 1100bpd from the next well, when drilled soon.

How big could the field really be - perhaps they have underestimated it. The CPR does talk of incomplete data in some areas.

from a poster on another site....

Just thought I would share: they have enough storage for oil at WR for 22 days @ 325 bopd . So 7 days at 1000 bopd . They have an option to rent further storage, not sure how that works?
Also if they discover commercial gas it would take 3/4 months to tie back and they have 3 options : large pipe , small pipe and local industrial plant .

The above from contact with CEO .

They ran this for 6 hours, then shut it in for 12.5 hours, then ran it for eleven hours, where it quickly stabilised at 1100bpd

So, if they ran it, then shut it in for 12.5 hours, then ran it again and it quickly stabilised at 1100bpd, then we should expect them to run it for more than a day or so, to see if the 1100bpd continues. We will hear once they have put all their data together.

They have a naturally flowing well from a horizontal section 522 meters long - looks like a good producer, so far.

yep - i have done that a few times!

New financial year on monday, new isa allowances, new money looking for a new home and we are due news.

Monday should be good

miton holding adjusted due to equity issued.

another stunning day - monday could be even better, if the expected RNS drops 0700

hi ezhik,

thanks - yep - when we think that they are getting ready for sidetrack 2 and other updates, then this is definitely getting interesting.

Block estimate that we should see netbacks of $42-45 a barrel - at 1100bopd that is about $16m a year. That would be £12m.GBP pa.

If they come anywhere near that, then you would expect to see the share price at the 15p level, for starters.

pershing nominees is owned by pershing securities limited, which is ultimately owned by BNY Mellon

Norio,

Capital costs, including an historic cost recovery pool of US$20 million, can be recovered from 50% of the production
revenue before sharing with the government

Satskhenisi

Capital costs, including an historic cost recovery pool of US$ 10.276 million, can be recovered from 50% of the production revenue before sharing with the government.

west rustavi..

The provisions of the agreement include that cost recovery of both capital and operating costs is limited to 50% of the revenue from sales of hydrocarbons before sharing with the government.

Only three wells in West Rustavi have penetrated the Upper Cretaceous, the 1, 3 and 16a. The 16a well had been tested at a rate of 1 MMcf/D gas

and

Since these are fields with established hydrocarbons, there is a 100% Probability of Success in finding hydrocarbons in the Chokrak, Maikop and Sarmatian in Norio, the Upper, Middle, and Lower Eocene and Upper Cretaceous in West Rustavi, and the Maikop and Chokrak in Satskhenisi. The main risk in both of these areas is commercial. The probability of establishing commercial production of all the Contingent Resources is estimated at 75%. The Probability of Success for the Prospective Resources in the Maikop at Norio is estimated at 60%.