RE: What’s up doc15 Jan 2024 18:15
TheTrotsky re your reply 15.03
The provision would normally be reduced by cash paid to plug the wells so that those costs incurred do not hit the profit and loss account. The part which has been capitalised as an asset is depreciated over the asset life and that is what hits the profit and loss over the asset life , you are in effect spreading the charge over a long period rather than taking an immediate hit with a "normal" provision eg bad debts , provision for a cost over-run or a provision for remedial costs ( eg builders for defective works).
The provision can also be changed as a result of lower cost expectations or any integral assumptions being revised. However this could lead to various items potentially being mis-stated as any change should primarily be reflected against the fixed asset costs but there is scope to abuse the system and release it directly to the revenue account especially if the provision is being reduced as that creates pure profit - the auditors should pick it up but stranger things have happened.
The problems with the ARO model as far as I am concerned is that the decline rate used is lower than decline rates notified by the company in other documents. The June 2022 supplement page 11 has a very clear major assumption of a 4.5% long term production decline rate. In any other document produced by the company the decline rate is usually twice this figure. The placing circular of 8 Feb 2023 page 6 has a paragraph about the assets being acquired and their decline rates with the company stating " On a pro-forma basis, the Company expects to have a company-wide average
decline rate of approximately 11% following the Proposed Acquisition, below its peer group." So which decline rate is accurate and why is he ARO model using such a low rate.
Furthermore in the circular, same page 2 paragraphs later the company states "The Company estimates
costs for P&A activities to be approximately US$40,000 – 60,000 per well" These figures have yet to be incorporated into any available model as the 2023 version has not yet been released.
Also for the first time the company in the illustration in the supplement states that no sinking fund is required as sufficient FCF will be generated - this is rubbish since in say 40 years time production will be much lower but plugging costs won't be so you have to build up a cash provision to cover those costs.