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If you think about it from the perspective of a director of a company that has been persecuted by a corrupt government for many years, it’s a logical play to make. Lose millions of personal wealth or play the same dirty game as your oppressors. Easy decision IMO, coupled with the probability of an easy cover up - not to ever permit the release of the arbitration awards.
The only valid question being, (if the GOGC are telling the truth) what’s to stop them releasing the arb docs without the permission of FRR.
Don’t get me wrong, I want this to come good as much as Rainbow, and I invested in this company after much research. I still believe Zaza is a gentleman and has not forgotten about his shareholders, his not communicating directly with us has a valid reason.
Political posturing on part of Zaza, in that he will create so much negative press around the GG that it will further damage an already tainted view of the GD that will ensure they don’t get re-elected. The only way for the GG to stop him will be to cancel the contract termination notice. Therefore a possible deal can be drawn up (if we believe this), Georgia can get its energy independence and the GD can take credit for it. Win win. As opposed to the alternative, Frr lose it all and the GD lose power in Georgia. Lose lose.
That should read. Or everybody wins.
No SR... the GD may withdraw the termination notice to save their chances of re-election and avoid the negative press. .. Zaza could be saying either everybody loses all everybody wins.
Another possible theory - the Georgian government did win the arbitration and it’s exactly as they say, they are entitled to terminate the contract. That being said Zaza has now set out to discredit the GD and ruin their chances of re-election by spreading false news and having America turn against them. The GD Now need to make a decision, as to whether to proceed with the termination or withdraw and come to some kind of deal with Frr so as to avoid the negative publicity.
The reason why I say this, is due to Zaza now having been on all media outlets (newspapers, radio and tv). If we consider that the GD read these statements too, Zaza may be speaking directly to them when saying that “it will take time” to redact the 152pg document, it’s a genius touch, in my opinion it rules out any chance of release if the arb awards to the public before the elections. At which point should a west facing government be elected it will be too late for the Georgian dream.
Just my opinion.
Given that the arb results are over 150 pages long, You could probably find a lot that will back up the statement, however supposed there’s also a ruling that panel also implicitly ruled out termination of contract.... the question we need to be asking ourselves is, did the auditors read the entire 152pg doc or did the GOGC just reveal the snippet of information that backed up their statement? We don’t know.
Politics is seldom ever clean but often dirty, now I’m by no means calling Zaza a liar, but perhaps he has to play the game dependant on his opponent. The world is corrupted by fake news, perhaps it’s one thing to tell a lie or two to the press to bring about a change in government and another thing to lie to his shareholders. Just thinking out loud.
If we are to believe these estimates that’s a fair point, StarRage. Just don’t see this saga ending that way. :)
Maybe I’m misunderstanding, On what cash if there’s no asset?
Given the shenanigans and foul play of Outrider, It’s my thoughts that Zaza would prefer Fold the company than give Hope a penny. If Zaza is adamant that he has gotten what he wanted out of the arbitration, if I were Zaza, my next move will be to ensure that Outrider gets less than what they would have, had he just played fair from the outset. In other words, either Hope gets nothing, or he gets an amount that he would consider nominal in comparison to what he could have, had he gotten the shares before (if we are to believe) a supermajority buyout. The grass not always being greener on the other side and all that jazz.
Tsbs1- there is a chance, though I’d say it’s small given what’s happening to Bidzina. In my opinion it’s a game of chess.
Hi Looed, there’s nothing to stop them from serving the termination notice, there is something to actually carrying it out, so on this point we will have to wait and see. Zaza somewhere states that the GOGC cannot terminate the contract and that the 99% will be handed back as per the Arbitration award at the latest possible date. If it’s all about that 1%, What would be his purpose of waiting if he had nothing to gain? It’s my opinion that he is running done the clock..which is the same reason for not halting the termination. . As dire as the situation may seem with the Georgian Dream in power, a west facing government after October will not want to get off on the wrong foot by terminating a contract with an American company. ..
The GOGC May also know that FRRS financials aren’t great... can they afford another court case? The GOGC might want to find out.
That said it would be nice for B20 to shed some more light on the situation as he does appear to be closer to the action.
Despite my not understanding a single word of the TV interview, what I did pick up is that Zaza didn’t have the demeanour of someone that is on the verge of losing a great deal. I think all this posturing from both sides is just that... posturing. As a west facing Georgian, Zaza wants the deal done when the right government is in power, and I think that’s all there is to it now. The threat to terminate the contract is a means to force his hand before he’s ready so the Georgian Dream can take the credit. Because this could increase theor chance of reelection, I wouldn’t be surprised if the FRR goes to court to challenge the GOGC actions to terminate he contract and it drags on until after the October elections. Either way, I think we have nothing to worry about.
I’ve read this board for years but never had the courage to contribute, just want to thank you all for keeping us silent dreamers well informed, the good and the bad.