The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
However I think this is where we see some divergence because whilst it may have peaked in the US , unfortunately the same can't be said here.. or at least to a lesser degree of confidence.
Fed looking to slow down pace of rate hikes , this basically means they're seen peak inflation in the US = great for stocks short term.
MGM one look at trades daily post and they're emotionally targeted. De-list IAG , worst performing share blah blah , when in actual fact over the last 6 months iag has been the best performer amongst its peers. So yes I'll give snappy responses to garbage posts , a bit like most of yours. Begone you muppit
Okay so go write to the board no one cares
Ah I'm talking about December/ Jan , so if really expensive actions are taken it will impact the cap price we as consumers pay. Even it its just 2 months , we've already seen £1k/MWh. No doubt we we will see £4k+
Your geographic unfortunately doesn't cover whole of UK;). Getting colder across all over Europe
How about we delist you ? Annoying child
Loyds unfortunately December is looking colder than seasonal norms, it is beginning to materialise already
Fyi last 2 days DA Auction clears for UK power were clearing above £1000/MWh for some hours in the evening peak. This is due to lower wind and colder temps which are forecasted to be below seasonal norms next week. In this instance we curtailed interconnector flows to France , but France have their own crisis with their nuclear fleet this winter so this won't be a reliable option for national grid.
In summary, whilst you may think inflation has peaked, it probably hasn't (though cpi ex energy may peak). Those prices surprised me , shows how sensitive the system is currently..
I will however say that the downside to my analysis is consumer resilience. So whilst I look at macros and say that consumer spending is taking a hit , that may not necessarily apply to the main demographic that flies with BA (which are older gens). This is actually an interesting project to look into when I have time :)
So not dismissing some of your points loyds , some of them are valid.
Also for those that actually watched the q3 webinar , business growth is lagging noticeably, its consumers that have been holding the reigns. No one knows how long this consumer demand will hold up but it certainly won't be forever. Costs are going up not down. Until BOE achieve its inflation target the job isn't done at all..
I maintain a bearish bias on q1/q2 and bullish q3/q4.
Lloyd's,
If you have a look at the cost of orders IAG is fulfilling currently they do not have cash flow to cover it at all. Its is largely debt financed..paying a few hundred millions is not even close. You should look at the current ratio. The two do not offset AT ALL , that's factually incorrect.
Demand destruction no impact on bottom line ? Please look at the q1 report
Also just because interest rates may stop increasing , it doesn't mean the BOE will cut. They'll be relatively high for a while.
Sund here's why:
- outlook for 23 is very uncertain, cash doesn't come from thin air , spending is decreasing. With that is the expectations luxuries like flights will be hit
- as mentioned several times now, jet fuel/kerosene prices are still very HIGH. They're trading at a much larger premium currently to the barrel price. This is the result of unhedged airliners rushing to market creating very high demand
-higher costs: wage inflation and settlements with unions, unfixed debt Subject to higher rates (tho most is fixed). New debt will be at higher rates.
You will get your 200p just need to wait a while..I see more downside than upside looking into q1
Jtan chill no one wants to read this amount of messages
You are even worse than oil help
MAniPulaTED - lol
Think you mistakenly removed me from the poll list , I was in at 1.25
Glad to be of service bobbins
Lemme pull out my crystal ball...
Maybe in the future.. a few years away. But I also see a lot of barrages to overcome. For one I think short haul flights will be reduced massively if there are alternative transport routes due to 2050 net zero goals. Airliners will also likely be forced to change to renewable / greener fuel types that are/ will be more expensive. I dunno you may see £3 again but ath could be a stretch
Yep see you Monday LOL