Too many promises but also too many shares. Slope of share count increase has been massively steeper than slope of revenue increase and profit increase . If they make 20 million pounds but have 3 billion shares, that that is .006 pounds per share for shareholder returns. But then they are currently using all that profit to grow the business so the potential to return to shareholders is zero now and the future potential shareholder return is diminishing with each share count increase, so the future return is being diluted faster than than that potential pot is growing. Not a really promising situation.
22 pence in May 2021 and 18 pence in October of 2021. Absolutely linear grinding slide since May 2021 (29 months) without a hint of a pause. Of course there was a big run up before that May 2021 high, but I was not on that train. The AIM train overall is now back at levels of March 2020 when the world shut down with covid. If pessimism precedes a reversal, this is certainly maximal pessimism. (or else delusion if one is not pessimistic). Cheers.
These last few months have been like watching a slow motion crash. All that is left is for the crashed vehicle to catch fire and explode into a ball of flames. Ugly sentiment. Never though we would see 5's. Never thought we would see 4's which is the next station of the current trajectory.
October 5 through October 12 is 7 days or one week. One more week to meet timeline given to source parts and repair rig.
Meanwhile board has gone totally bonkers. Nothing to worry about. It is human nature and seems to happen eventually to all stock boards when they reach a certain size. My personal theory is that 10% of all people are JPN. (just plain nuts). Each one has potential to introduce political, philosophical, or theological ranting or to simply rile up and agitate and get personal for no particular reason. If a board has 50 active members that is five JPN and that can be handled and will self regulate a little. But if a board gets to 200 active members, that is 20 JPN and the noise tends to start amplifying and become an uncontrolled chain reaction. That is too bad because there is often (as here) timely and useful information from posters with a wide range of expertise and experience related to the company but also to the industry and the geology and geography and even the geopolitical environment. But as I said, deterioration does tend to happen. That is the way it goes.
Dai Belts: you write - Its AIM its gambling, even more so when the company your money is on is reluctant to provide useful information as things progress..
It is very discouraging that the AIM index in this little recent patch has retreated to levels it hit at start of covid when the entire world shut down. You cannot blame all of the drop in any particular company on any specific behavior of the company, likes its communication style.
Wyndrum: you write - This is about as high a risk stock as it is possible to purchase.
All I can say is you are not well acquainted with the AIM universe. There is five years of work into planning this drill. The geology is very interesting and their is potential that Tanzania will be a major province for primary Helium, a commodity in big demand. Helium One is an early mover. They have a very experienced team. The prospect has been somewhat derisked by the Tai 1 well which was drilled with a mineral rig and had well bore integrity issues. They have the right rig on site and they will dril Tai 3 and another prospect back to back, with all supporting well services components there as well. The country is also politically stable, with good business climate, and hungry for this resource to be defined and developed.
If you think this is the highest risk stock on AIM you are off the mark. I could easily make you a long list of higher risk darlings. (I even own a couple).
Hi Sturm,
Production is steady and is restricted at 60 mmcf/day. They would have to provide and RNS if that is changes, either up because of optimization if Casca Deep well cleaned up, or down because of some problem.
I did read the valleura update. What I was saying would not have value is the cash balance on September 30 part, because the first cash from Cascadura facility will be October 25 so none of the September production will show up as cash. It will show up as revenues because that is booked when the gas goes through the metering station.
"What I really would like, is a simple RNS with Q3 production & cash update (e.g. Valeura gave one today)."
Trouble is the September extra production from Cascadura facility will show up in revenues since it is booked as it passes the pay meter at entry into NGC pipleine. But that revenue will be in receivables but not in cash until October 25.
So a simple preliminary update like Valeura would be misleading. The big jump in revenues and cash will start showing up in the 4Q report and if they get production to 90 mmcf/day by end of 4th quarter then Q1 2024 will have another major jump.
LegalWolf: You write: Do I see any positives worthy of discussion? My honest answer to that is NO, I do not.
I can see your point, you have clearly laid out your reasons why you think there are no positives. .
There is alternative way to look at it.
1. There is no way that a mechanical breakdown of the rig that will be fixed in less than two weeks changes anything. The positives are the same as before.
2. This well is the culmination of five years of work by highly skilled people including Noble Gas group at Oxford and has a reasonable chance of proving the hypothesis that the East African rift valley in Tanzania will be a commercially important primary helium province.
3. The results of Tai 1 increased and not decreased the odds of success at Tai 3, by proving a working helium system.
4. Base on results of Tai 1, the company spent two years putting together a campaign that will drill Tai 3 at optimized location and also a second prospect. They are on track to accomplish this with drilling team and whole range of support services on site.
Those are positives, surely not negatives. It is reasonable to have a small position here as part (the speculative high/risk high reward part) of a balanced portfolio. That is just my opinion. As you say IMO and DYOR. Just saying that acknowledges the possibility of other opinions (besides nothing positive to discuss) based on other interpretations of research into the company and the geology and the preliminary results and how they have gotten to this point with a working camp in the field -soon to be moving ahead again.
62 million on AIM and 34k on US OTC. I could not fill 30,000 shares at 5.5 cents here but was quickly able to buy 30,000 on AIM for 5.35 cents or 4.4 pence. That includes 100 basis points for AIM trader. There is also a $100 SCHW global desk fee which is only a third of a basis point on that many shares. That way (trading direct in London) I could also cap my trading cost at $100, rather than risk paying $50 each on multiple partial fills OTC.
Not easy to trade AIM shares directly but this one worked smoothly.
So my basis is down a bit, I own a tiny extra sliver of the company, and will see what this drill and the next one bring. I also own some Noble which I am happy about on a day like this. And some Pulsar in Canada on Toronto Venture capital who will spud their big reveal well in northern MN on December 10. Fourth quarter will have a lot of drills toward my goal of finding a primary helium company with proven and large scale commercial helium discovery heading toward production and sales (revenues!).
That is not a positive thought. Well is cased and cemented and has well control device in place. They are ABOVE their main targets. Why on earth would they stop there and head off to the other site. They also have had none of the well bore issues that ruined the first drill, which makes sense because that is why they drilled a bigger hole and cased it through the most unstable part of the drill path. Why would you think your advice to "cut their losses , stop the drilling and move on to the next drill site" is a "positive thought". It is a pretty ridiculous thought, IMO.
Thomas A-J is still on quest for primary helium. He now has land rights in an area in Minnesota with an accidental helium discovery from 2011. Someone was drilling a man metal core in an intrusion looking for copper/nickel in the NA rift valley which includes northern MN. The ran into overpressurized gas zone that flowed at high volumes until it was plugged after 4 days. They obtained gas samples and it was not flammable and had 10.5% helium. If only Helium One finds a well like this. Pulsar went public 40 days ago, I bought some Tuesday at 19.64 cents US$. They are spudding an appraisal well December 12 with oil and gas rig from good outfit in Wyoming. I think you will find this little report of the details of that 2011 accidental discovery interesting. A little more helpful than a deep.
Helium One much further along in many ways and there is a lot more known about the geology in Tanzania- and I own more Helium One and more Noble. But I am intrigued that Thomas A-J is still hunting primary helium and stumbled across this old well and turned it into a project and has a contract to drill a well 20 meters from the original discovery - with an option for a second well - all permits in place.
Tell me what you think of this technical report as we are watching Helium One and Noble drill two wells each in Tanzania.
https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/643e9b04697598ab2651d990/64751d8f418a4f486be27192_Topaz_2_pager-compressed.pdf
They have separate licenses. The will test their own wells. They might need their own purification plants , or if close enough they could co-operate but would need pipelines to a common facility. They have to ship the gas in containers to Dar Es Salam port where it can be loaded on ships. Depending on size of the resource they might want to have access to a liquification plant in Tanzania, which would likely be a joint venture involving a number of producers and the government. All that has to be sorted out. First step is for one or both companies to prove a commercial helium resource.
1. Helium 1 well spud with new video from Lorna, well done. Next month will tell a lot for sure. We have been waiting for this since the well bore on the tiny mineral rig drill (Tai 1) crumbled and shut us down.
2. Noble Helium on parallel path targeting slightly different structures but same working helium system. They will spud within a few days and their targets (they also plan two wells) are shallower. Between Helium 1 and Noble the results will go a long way toward establishing Tanzania as a potential commercial helium province, or not. Total of four wells to take a shot at that.
3. Pulsar Helium. Lots of action. They have a discovery well from 2011 in Minnesota, the rift valley of North America. That well was a mineral rig drilling mineral cores (for copper nickel deposit) and ran into an pocket of over pressurized gas that was not flammable (no hydrocarbons) and tested 10.5 % helium. Primary helium, no hydrocarbons. After 12 years of inaction, this new company gained control of the land and mineral rights, went public 40 days ago, just signed a rig contract and will spud an appraisal well on December 10. That well will be of huge interest. I have been chasing primary helium investment opportunities all over the world, could MN (where I live) really become an important commercial helium producer? A totally interesting fact is that the founder and CEO of Pulsar Helium, just in Minneapolis drumming up some interest, is none other than Thomas Abraham-James. He was a co-founder of Helium 1 with Josh Bluett and they were the two who went to Oxford and got their Noble Gas group interested in starting the intensive work they have done in Tanzania. I do not know the details of why Thomas A-J left Helium One (I think in 2019) but he is still very much chasing Primary Helium, in my neighborhood and also in Greenland. Does anyone know why he left? The 40 day seasoning period for new foreign microcap IPO's ended today and I bought 10k to follow along.
4. Another very different primary helium source is in Saskatchewan (and neighboring Alberta) where there is trapping of helium in benches that are often quite thin. There are a number of players there but one public one is Royal Helium. They have some interesting discoveries including a wider zone called the Nazare that needs a horizontal fracked well to test for commerciality. They are about out of money having invested a lot in a production facility at Steveville in Alberta to produce two primary helium wells there. They have great off take agreements in place and once that facility starts producing and generating revenue, they will have better chance of pursuing a growth path by testing an producing some other similar prospects and then the much larger Nazare, higher risk and higher cost but bigger reward. That facility surely should come on withing weeks (it really better).
"We look forward to providing further updates once TD has been achieved and once the logs and initial analyses have been completed."
The English language is tough. That sentence could easily mean two updates or only one. Probably means two since the plural noun updates precedes the word and. And the word once is used twice.
Could have been more clearly written. Or just put ChatAI on the job.
It is nice to have two horses in the race. Both have the same idea, find primary helium in east african rift basin.
Both have broadly experienced teams. Both are under-capitalized. They have slightly different type of targets, but still are both looking for reservoirs where migrating helium is trapped with good seals, and can be exploited commercially. Tanzania is supportive and will be happy if one or both develop a robust helium franchise in the country, or even if they get a good discovery and pass that on to a deep pockets multinational oil and gas company like exxon or total, or to a big industrial gas supply company like linde or air equipe.
Yes there are steps to get to 200 mmcf/day that will take 12-18 months.
BUT the path from 60 mmcf/day to 90 mmcf/day at Cascadura is very simple, just gradually open the valve on the Cascadura Deep well while monitoring it closely as the formation cleans up. That should happen within at most a few months with ZERO additional investment. Adding another 30 mmcf/day is huge. That alone adds 3000 more boe/d and pushes that number over 13000 boe/d - when last week the entire company was producing 2000 boe/d. Ramping Cogo to 24 mmcf/day needs a couple of new well s and some modifications at Shell facility receiving the gas. But it is dry gas and the facility at Coho Pad and the existing gas pipeline to central block facility can handle it without modifications. Could be added early next year.
Then there is so much more that will be unfolding. Asset swap and finalization of bid round award/s. Royston on pump. Cascadura C pad wells, Coho development wells, Coora legacy commitment wells. Exploration resumes with Kokanee, Steelhead, Kraken.
Then Cacadura ramps to 200 mmcf/day after new wells, tie in, liquids pipeline, and some additional equipment at Cascadura facility. There is a lot to do but it is all designed and permitted and not that complicated. And that alone, with minimal risk and modest capital DOUBLES the size of company again and boosts production to over 25,000 bopd. Lots to come.