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The last disastrous presentation in December had three pieces of bad news, one sort of expected (Royston 1-ST did not flow on pump) and the second and third totally unexpected (2. need to increase credit facility to keep drilling schedule and inability to secure that increase as of the date of the presentation; and 3. Production at 48 mmcf/day and not the lower end of projections which initially was 60-90 by year end and had been dropped to 60 just recently) . Hopefully this presentation will have a few expected and unexpected positive items.
It would really be helpful if he had something positive to say. Like any one of these eight items, most of which we were hoping for at the disastrous December presentation. Needless to say those hopes were dashed.
1. On-shore bid rounds finalized. (Cipero and Charuna blocks)
2. Rio Clara asset swap approved.
3. Cascadura facilty production stable at 60 mmf/day. (did not happen, at this point would take some rework at Cascadura Deep with completion of additional pay).
4. first well at Cascadura C pad spud (we know that has happened so won't get much of a lift from that).
5. Coora committment wells spud with another rig.
6. Pick-up in Coho production after the plug to control water inflow from lower zone. (underwhelming results at disastrous December presentation)
7. Favorable negotiations on the NG pricing for Cascadura output. (or maybe a higher price for gas from Rio tied to approval of the swap).
8. Loan facility sign off to give them more flexibility (the need for that increase in loan facility was one of the negatives from the disastrous December presentation.
At some point a presentation has to offer something positive. An unexpected positive would be even better. In December we were also hoping for positive results from putting Roston 1-ST on pump (but no cigar there ) and news about Coho Development wells to include Coho-2 and a second Coho well that would take a peek at Gibba (now delayed to late 2H 2024.)
The fact is that Slater may do very well with 71 million additional very cheap shares, but I cannot do that. Plus his early shares were incredibly cheap. So JLP at this price and share count has a minimal chance of increasing my wealth but might have a huge impact on his wealth. For me there is a better chance it goes to zero than it doubles from my US 20 cents a share basis. Still I am holding on to it because I am stubborn and would rather lose the remaining 40% than sell it and have regrets if it does follow the rosy path outlined in that podcast. The loss from here will not be that significant to me and there is a small chance of real success if the story I bought in to (JBL becomes a major player in tailings reclamation with extraction of valuable minerals and environmental improvement as well ) actually plays out. I would like to see that happen for many reasons.
This narrative below was nice. But averaging down in a company as it is about to collapse is the worst idea. A phoenix rising from the ashes is also nice but is an unusual and mythical occurrence. Most dead birds lie there on the ground until someone picks at the carcass. I am hoping that is not the case here, but I fear it may be. I did decide to buy some rather than try to rescue the 4% of my investment that was left. But the dollar amount was small and I did it with eyes wide open.
Averaging down is in principle, fine. If you believe the market has over reacted, or that in fact the story hasn't changed, and the market has mis-interpreted the "news" then it can be an opportunity to increase your stock holding at a lower price, allowing for greater profits when you decide to sell.
Right now able to buy on US OTC at price near equivalent to .25 pence.
But would like to make small comment about impact of ultra low share price.
As you know US shares get delisted from NASDAQ if share price slips below a dollar and stays there. There are some tricky manipulations with reverse splits but there are some advantages. Mainly the impact of spreads and fees. Spread is often a penny or less, reliably under 2%. With shares at a quarter of a pence, spreads can widen out to 10% or 25% or more. Makes it hard to get back to even let alone sell at profit. Then there are the trading fees. I have to pay $50 to buy AIM shares OTC in US. Theoretically on 100,000 shares that is only 15% but partial fills can get very pricy since not pro-rated. I also have to pay the $50 to sell so it takes a big move to get out even.
There is a reason why most shares under $1 on US OTC eventually go to zero. I am sure there is data on AIM shares that trade less than one pence. I would say that overall it is not good.
Happy New Year everyone and good luck. Hoping for a problem free drill, a helium discovery with flow of gas to surface (and not just helium in water). That could bring shares back over a pence.
That is the one good thing for TXP. We have had the opportunity to buy the plan at a reduced share price for a very long time. This brutal downtrend continues. It started on January 2, 2021. TXP is so undervalued that a reversal and a little optimism could drives shares up fairly quickly. But it is getting hard to imagine what it will take to make that reversal happen.
It's like trying to catch a slow falling knife until the funding lands.
The knife has already fallen and has stuck deeply into the body of Helium One. It has absolutely now become a case of whether a Phoenix can rise from the ashes, or more accurately from the rapidly cooling corpse of the company.
You talk utter bolockkks my friend.
Noble just raised, and are doing fine, HE1 have headroom, albeit tight
I don't see how you think He 1 has headroom. That is crazy as a loon.
And Noble 1 did a dilutive secondary at a depressed price to raise enough money to test an already drilled well. That is not ready access to capital. If they have a discovery that is fantastic and commercial they will need more than $50 million to drill a couple more wells and build some production facilities. Peanuts for a big company. Noble will have to make a deal deal with someone.
There may be a commercially viable primary helium resource in Tanzania.
Unfortunately Helium One does not have any money. Ready access to capital is a requirement to move this forward. Once they prove a commercial source then someone with capital will likely step in. Same goes for Noble Helium to a slightly less immediately critical degree. The exxons and the total energies and all the major industrial gas suppliers would like access to new helium resources in different parts of the world to meet the growing needs of local supply chains for relaible access to helium.
I was able to buy 50k at 2 cents on US OTC this morning. (about 1.5 pence). It will be my final purchase one way or the other. I lower my average share price by doing this and will better participate if the company survives. If the company goes under I don't lose that much more beyond what I have already lost, and I will have a tax loss. Somehow I could not bring myself to simply sell what I have left (a small dollar amount) with an important drill in January and the company all set to evaluate the resource immediately if they do get that elusive discovery. Just too much risk of seller's remorse if I bail out now and they do pull a rabbit out of the hat. Anyway, that is how I am playing it. Good luck to the long term holders here right from the start - it is a great story. Just it is not yet clear (despite analysis by Oxford Noble Gas group) if it is true that there is a massive primary helium source in Tanzania that is commercially exploitable and will position the country as an important supplier of 10% of world's helium needs.
If a company is issuing new shares to raise new capital because their business is thriving and growing, then it can go well, especially if each subsequent offering is at a higher price point.
If a company is only issuing new shares out of an attempt at raising new capital because their business is hurting, then it does not go well, especially if the hurting part is getting worse and each subsequent offering is at a lower price point.
I guess one has to decide which of these scenarios is happening in making an investment decision. But it is never good if the share count is massively increasing with flat revenues and profits. Show me one example of that.
Enjoy today, maybe we will build on it.
I have done a little research since our last go around on this. Almost impossible to get a 10 bagger with a share count of 3 billion shares. If I buy 100,000 shares for 30 pence and someone else later buys 1,000,000 for 3 pence, it is highly unlikely that my original investment will do well. It may recover somewhat of course. Selling shares to raise capital at ever increasing share prices (like Tesla or Amazon) works well as efficient source of capital. Trying to raise new capital by selling shares at a tenth and then a hundredth of the price paid by early investors almost never works out that well for those early investors. The AIM spiral of dilution valuation destruction is seldom the road to riches. Unless there is a massive mother lode of value uncovered against all odds. Anyway it is a good day today. I have never sold any JLP. Even added on the way down, to a point. Getting better access to capital is very good.
Especially with high interest rates and tight credit markets which are hindering many if not all small resource companies.
This could be a big game changer. Unfortunately the AIM spiral of dilution induced value destruction of early investors has been going on for some time so the upside is not what it once was. But it is still several multiples from here.
Depth of discovery well was 1778 feet. I will just answer this question then move on from Pulsar. Hoping to see good news from Tai 3 testing this week. Could be very exciting to get strong indication of a discovery and to see the helium concentrations on gas samples they hopefully obtain.
Helium Discovery on Pulsar project.
In 2011, a previous explorer was drilling a series of boreholes targeting nickel and platinum group element (PGE) mineralization when they unexpectedly encountered a pocket of high-pressure gas in at a depth of 1,778 feet (541m) in borehole LOD-6. The gas pressure was sufficient to blow the core tube and associated drill fluid out of the hole and is therefore considered to be an over- pressured reservoir. The borehole was allowed to flow with the expectation the pocket would be depleted in a matter of hours, however the gas flow persisted for four continuous days with no obvious drop in pressure. The gas flow velocity was measured using an anemometer designed for domestic wind speed, reaching its maximum speed recording of 150 km/hr prior to breaking under the gas pressure.
Two gas samples were collected from the flowing LOD-6 borehole. The samples were analyzed by Dr. Barbara Sherwood-Lollar at the University of Toronto and at Pace Laboratories. All samples showed some air contamination as can be expected given the underprepared field conditions in which they were collected. Nonetheless, gas compositions reported by the two labs were in good agreement, with the least air-contaminated sample composition [measurements included 10.5% helium, 0.1 % O2 and 2.4 % methane and other hydrocarbon gases]. After analyses of the gas confirmed that it was non-combustible [mainly CO2 and Nitrogen] , LOD-6 was sealed with bentonite and permanently abandoned.
Geology
The Topaz Project is located within the Mid-Continent Rift Zone (MCRZ) in northeastern Minnesota, USA. The MCRZ is a 1.1 billion-year-old rift that extends from Kansas through Minnesota and into western Ontario, Canada. The Topaz Project is situated within the Bald Eagle Intrusion (BEI) of the Duluth Complex, a large mafic igneous body that intruded into the Biwabik Formation of the Paleoproterozoic Animikie Group. The Duluth Complex can attain a thickness of over 15 km and is associated with the MCRZ.
Pulsar just started trading on US OTC as PSRHF so it has become easier to buy without extra commissions.
Just want to say I have many more eggs in He 1 basket. But I have been chasing primary helium opportunities around the world. And I live in MInnesota which many do not even know is in the central rift valley of NA extending fron northern MN to James Bay in Canada. So I want a little bit in Pulsar so I do not miss the prize in my own back yard while investing in Tanzania, Saskatchewan, and other places. I do know that the 2011 results were amazing and Helium One so far has proven nothing like that. High pressure blowout well with 10.5 % helium is different than some 10% helium seeps. It is worth it to see what a proper appraisal well with an advanced oil and gas rig finds. And that drill is fully funded. I also was a little influenced by the fact that a founder of helium 1 is all in on this prospect.
Not pumping this issue, may not be for anyone else and the MN connection influenced me. Not pumping Noble either though I have investment there too. I like having money on a few horses in the race for primary helium.