Member Info for schlemiel

by 'eck, this is tough going at present... price messing around the 24-27p range - not sure what news will pump the price above this range? a slow burner at present

All systems go!

Well done to holders. I think this could be the game changer the market's been patiently waiting for.

Technical Event: NT Onshore Update and Opportunity Join YEA & YPF for an overview of Origin�s �Beetaloo Exploration Project�. Join YEA & YPF for an overview of Origin�s �Beetaloo Exploration Project�. Origin Energy is a key player in Australia's energy supply chain with operations in Energy Sales, Renewable Energy (solar and wind), Gas Exploration and Production, and Power Generation. Origin hold petroleum exploration permits in the Beetaloo Basin, an area which has been the focal point of onshore exploration activity in the NT for unconventional gas reserves. In February 2017, Origin lodged a discovery notice with the Australian Stock Exchange and the Northern Territory regulator of a contingent resource of 61 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas - four times the capacity of gas of Inpex�s Ichthys field. Hear from Stephanie Stonier, Origin Energy�s Corporate Affairs Manager (Northern Australia), as she provides an overview of Origin�s future exploration plans in the Northern Territory, and then better understand how the Northern Territory�s Engineers and Pipeliners may learn more about this prospective natural gas opportunity. Stephanie will touch on the following themes though will ensure you have the opportunity to ask questions and learn more about specific areas of interest: The difference between Conventional and Unconventional Gas The process of hydraulic fracturing for extraction of Natural Gas How a potential development in the Beetaloo sub-basin differs from Coal Seam Gas (QLD) Plans for ongoing exploration and potential development Young Pipeliners Forum (YPF) The YPF provides a means for young people involved in the pipeline and gas industry to get together and organise events where they learn from more experienced pipeliners. Refreshments will be provided. Proudly supported by Origin. HTTP://test.engineersaustralia.org.au/Event/technical-event-nt-onshore-update-and-opportunity

He said AGL's position in coal power and the complexity of such a deal could limit Shell's appetite, suggesting Origin Energy could present an "alternative target", providing similar benefits but with additional synergies in Queensland LNG. https://www.afr.com/business/energy/gas/wood-mackenzie-floats-radical-energy-ma-ideas-shellagl-tieup-20180531-h10spq

https://www.pesa.com.au/events/pesa-sa-nt-technical-luncheon-thursday-28th-june-regional-studies-mcarthur-basin/ When: Thursday 28th June, 12pm for 12:30 Where: Club Braggs at The Public Schools Club, 207 East Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000 Speakers: Matilda Sheridan & Rhodri Johns Santos Ltd Santos entered the Beetaloo sub Basin in 2012 following regional studies that helped to better define the extent of the Beetaloo sub-Basin and in particular the extent of the Velkerri and Kyalla organic rich shales. The Mesoproterozoic Velkerri and Kyalla organic rich shales of the Roper Group in the McArthur Basin are identified as possibly one of the most prospective shale gas plays in Australia. The Velkerri and Kyalla shales occur within a thick, predominantly marine, clastic succession within the upper Roper Group of the McArthur Basin in the Northern Territory. Santos has conducted regional studies across the McArthur Basin focussing on the tectonic setting, depositional models and sedimentological/stratigraphic relationships of the Roper Group to better understand the prospectivity and extent of the Velkerri and Kyalla shale gas plays. This review has included the study of open file drill core, well log analysis, seismic interpretation integrated with available potential field data. The studies have provided an insight into the facies relationships across the full spectrum of shallow water to deeper marine deposits and the regional distribution of the main stratal units of the upper Roper Group. The Roper Group succession consists of approximately six major regressive-transgressive (R-T) sequences, each ca 500-1000m thick, deposited in a clastic-dominated marine deltaic setting. This analysis focusses on the three youngest R-T sequences. The regional seismic interpretation reveals an overall southeast thickening of the upper Roper Group succession in the Beetaloo and OT Downs sub-basins, supporting a northward prograding delta depositional model. Well and seismic data indicate that the organic rich shales of the Velkerri and Kyalla formations are laterally continuous, relatively undeformed and thermally mature, classifying them as unconventional reservoirs hosting potentially large volumes of retained hydrocarbon. -

Forget the price (those flickering images on your PC screen) and focus on the real world - it's all upside with our 30% - in 12 months time you'll be kicking yourself you didn't add at these prices The value simple needs to be released here and drilling will do just that.. patience is required

Senior Director Petroleum Operations Following an independent, scientific inquiry the Northern Territory Government has determined that hydraulic fracturing of onshore unconventional shale gas reservoirs may proceed under strict laws and regulations to ensure industry best practice management of all aspects of this emerging industry. The opportunity This key leadership role provides an exceptional opportunity to oversee regulation of an emerging onshore gas industry.This is an exciting opportunity to be involved in the growth of Australia�s premier shale gas province and to contribute to the further development of a world class regulatory regime as the Government implements the recommendations of the Final Report of the Scientific Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracturing of Onshore Unconventional Reservoirs in the Northern Territory. $232k pa - there are people on this thread who'd do it for NOWT https://www.seek.com.au/job/36333041

in today's Daily Mail - Hannan and a placing of �55m or something like that

Mather's signalling to the market that he wants to take this to production means one thing, a stagnant share price - the sheer size of the CAPEX required will weigh on sentiment.... I've put my stock in the bottom drawer - and now to forget about it message to NM - you've done a great job here but now's the time to hand over ownership to the big boys to do their thing - gla

I believe they call it democracy. Of course there are countries that reject democracy and embrace totalitarianism. Maybe people with your mindset would find an authoritarian culture more refreshing... Trump and Brexit are testament to the strength of our liberal democracies. Moreover, both events represent a strike against a political elite who are desperately trying to loosen and weaken democratic accountability Like you, people like Clinton, Blair, Lagarde, Juncker etc despise democracy as it interferes with their political project

IC View When China switches to a net importer of a commodity, prices tend to jump. That is a distinct possibility in the vanadium market, according to BMO analyst Colin Hamilton, who suggests that �what is currently a China problem may quickly become a global issue�. And though predicting the Chinese steel industry�s next move is less simple than its juggernaut status suggests, improving quality standards is likely to provide a strong latent demand for vanadium feedstocks. Equally, improving capital market sentiment towards greenfield primary production is probably the best chance of moderating price volatility, and one that is more likely to sustain the vanadium redox flow battery revolution � if it ever arrives. END

The analyst's view Go with the flow Electricity systems already require a range of ancillary services to ensure smooth and reliable operation, requiring a degree of flexibility services, which allow grid operators to react to unexpected changes in demand or losses in supply. Electricity storage will be fundamental to the energy transition, with services directly supporting the integration of variable renewable electricity. Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) represent a breakthrough in this field, and come with advantages over commercially-available energy storage technologies � such as non-combustibility, modular design and scalability. While commercialisation of VRFBs is an accelerating sub-sector of the energy storage market, mass adoption has been limited due to elevated capital costs of battery manufacture. Due to their low energy density (up to five times� less than lithium-ion examples), VRFBs are not suitable for mobile applications, but are useful in load levelling at power stations, peak shaving for industrial users and storage for renewable sources of energy. Unlike lithium-ion batteries, their degradation is limited. Consequently, battery-grade vanadium demand may be considered a market function of global energy storage capacity. Citigroup presents one of the more bullish cases, forecasting VFRB capturing up to 400GW by 2030. The expansive trajectory indicates that the global energy storage market will double more than six times between 2016 and 2030, while deployed capacity will be focused across eight countries; with 70 per cent capacity split across the US, China, Japan, India, Germany, the UK, Australia and South Korea. Forecasts from Navigant and Boston Consulting Group expect VRFBs to capture 15-25 per cent of the market, although superior cost reduction potential of the technology is expected to drive the market share significantly higher. Lazard�s analysis concludes that VRFBs already demonstrated the lowest 'levelized' costs across the sector in 2017. Mass adoption of commercial systems such as those developed by UniEnergy Technologies and Bushveld Minerals should assist with the penetration of VRFBs into the fledgling market. John Meyer, mining analyst, SP Angel cont 5

Favourites Within Anglo Pacific Group's (APF) portfolio of mining royalties, vanadium may only count for 6.3 per cent of exposure by asset value, and 5 per cent of last year�s top line. But as 2017 financial results showed, the company�s title to 2 per cent of Largo�s smelter output at Marac�s Menchen is testament to a recent track record of timely dealmaking. The Marac�s royalty, acquired in 2014 for $22m, triggered the first of two deferred considerations of $1.5m last November, when fourth-quarter output hit a record 2,539 tonnes, and just as vanadium prices were going through the roof. Given current guidance, there�s little chance the second deferred payment will be triggered this year, although with prices continuing to climb, the �2m income accrued to Anglo last year � 155 per cent up on 2016 � should again leap forward. Indeed, revenue from Marac�s hit �0.8m in the first three months of 2018. If that falls back, Anglo is well-hedged by producing royalties in coking and thermal coal, uranium, gold, copper and silver. Outsiders RedT Energy (RED) is in the business of energy storage, although like many Aim-listed blue-sky investment cases it is also focused on keeping investors� energy powered. Last month brought one source of encouragement on that front, with an oversubscribed �3.85m placing, which will be used �to support the continued growth of the business� and develop further products. That fundraising followed two share sales, which book-ended 2016, all of which raises the question as to when � and how � RedT will start to self-fund. The higher vanadium prices rise, the tougher the challenge. Certainly, there are customers for the engineer�s large-scale energy storage applications, such as the unnamed tidal generation project consortium that signed a deal for a 3MWh flow machine system earlier this year. But until this market kicks into gear, the funding situation is likely to be touch-and-go for the time being. As such, VSA Capital�s 10-year discounted cash-flow-derived price target of 22p � a premium of more than 200 per cent to the current market value � looks a tad optimistic. cont 4

On that front, there is some doubt. More than 70 per cent of vanadium is produced as a **** by-product in steel-manufacturing, but generally in insufficient quantities to hold sway in the profitability of any given steel plant. That would be the case even if oversupply had rendered most spare steel capacity uneconomical. Compounding the tightness in co-production feedstocks, both Chinese vanadium mine supply and vanadium **** production have been affected by rising environmental standards. As a consequence, more than 40 per cent of global vanadium capacity is sitting idle. For vanadium co-production to become profitable, Bushveld and TPP Squared believe the metal�s prices would need to double, and stay above $100 (�74.25) a tonne �on a sustained basis�, which would be unprecedented. Even primary production remains constrained, as Bushveld well knows. The Aim-listed miner, whose acquisition of the super low-cost Vametco project from Evraz (EVR) has been spectacularly timed to rising vanadium prices, will soon need to convince capital markets to fund the nearby Mokopane development, which should cost $300m. That project � which would more than double Bushveld's output (Vametco output should hit 5kMt by 2020) � carries a net present value of $418m at a 9 per cent discount rate, and assuming a long-term vanadium pentoxide price of $7.50 a pound. Whether a takeover of Bushveld�s vanadium division is more likely depends on any potential acquirer�s appetite for doing business in South Africa. Glencore (GLEN) is also a primary producer. Last year, the group�s joint venture in Rustenburg, South Africa, produced 20.9m pounds of vanadium pentoxide, which fetches a lower value per kilogramme than ferrovanadium. That may be a small proportion of the commodity giant�s $200bn-plus top line, but is likely to be supplemented by the group�s role as a major trader in the metal. Indeed, one of its major off-take agreements is with Largo Resources� (CA:LGO) Marac�s Menchen in Bahia, Brazil. The Toronto-listed group, which bills itself as the biggest �pure play� on the metal�s rising tide, is an option for investors prepared to look further afield, although there is an alternative way to buy into Marac�s� growing profitability, as detailed below. cont 3

Steel the show For all its blue-sky potential, vanadium�s principal application is decidedly low-tech. More than 90 per cent of the metal is used in steel manufacturing, where the addition of two pounds of vanadium will double the strength of a tonne of product. As you�d expect, China has an outsized role in the demand for the metal, given its dominance in steel, although over the next decade the country's annual production growth is expected to fall to 0.9 per cent � compared with 1.76 per cent globally � in part to adjust to its own falling steel consumption. Yet within those numbers is a hidden driver: growing enforcement in China of high-strength rebar steel standards. According to analysis from Bushveld and consultancy TTP Squared, China used 48g of vanadium per tonne of steel produced in 2017. Were Chinese steelmakers to match European standards, this would require an additional 30g per tonne. Again, using 2017 Chinese steel production as a benchmark, this would equate to another 24kMt (thousand metric tonnes) of vanadium. Some bears suggest a potential surge in medium-term demand (and with it price) runs the risk of substitution to niobium, another high-strength steel alloy. For steel manufacturers, there are obstacles to this, however, including complicated adjustments to production facilities, and the reliance on securing off-take deals from an industry dominated by one Brazilian company, CBMM. As such, there is reason to believe that steel producers have some capacity to absorb higher vanadium prices, particularly if prices of a more important input � iron ore � soften, as many expect. Maintaining the flow Unfortunately, high vanadium prices could be harmful to the second major driver of demand, redox flow batteries (see box below), given the metal�s significant proportional cost to the technology. As energy storage becomes a critical part of the low-carbon energy transition, demand for redox batteries (which are safer and longer lasting that lithium-ion alternatives), should be strong. To put this into context for vanadium demand, the 200MW redox mega-battery developed by Chinese company Rongke Power is estimated to require more than 4kMt of the metal. Alone, that�s half the total global demand Roskill expects by 2027, suggesting there could be a massive secondary source of demand in the years ahead, so long as supply maintains the pace. cont 2

Vanadium: a perfect metal market? Since prices bottomed two-and-a-half years ago, several commodities have vied for the title of �top performer�. That moniker � seen through the eyes of producers and bulls of commodities, rather than consumers � has few stronger contenders than vanadium, a soft, grey metal used in the steel and chemicals industries. In 2017, the vanadium price more than doubled, on top of a 72 per cent climb in 2016, amounting to a fivefold increase between November 2015 and April this year. That puts it ahead of other �hot� battery metals, including cobalt and lithium, whose prices have swelled amid expectations of surging demand from electric vehicle manufacturers. Those London-listed miners with exposure � Bushveld Minerals (BMN) chief among them � have benefited accordingly. Despite this, there are reasons to believe that the vanadium price will continue to rise, irrespective of the market�s history of sudden spikes and violent drops. Interestingly, this is a view broadly held by mining analysts and producers alike. Asked why things will be different this time, they cite two excellent drivers of long-term demand, and a long list of structural impediments to supply. These dynamics are complex, but comprehensible. Whether they will prove temporary or a lasting feature of the market will be largely determined by the strength and size of a deficit that looks likely to persist until at least 2020, according to the base case forecasts of industry consultant Roskill. Steel the show For all its blue-sky potential, vanadium�s principal application is decidedly low-tech. More than 90 per cent of the metal is used in steel manufacturing, where the addition of two pounds of vanadium will double the strength of a tonne of product. As you�d expect, China has an outsized role in the demand for the metal, given its dominance in steel, although over the next decade the country's annual production growth is expected to fall to 0.9 per cent � compared with 1.76 per cent globally � in part to adjust to its own falling steel consumption. Yet within those numbers is a hidden driver: growing enforcement in China of high-strength rebar steel standards. According to analysis from Bushveld and consultancy TTP Squared, China used 48g of vanadium per tonne of steel produced in 2017. Were Chinese steelmakers to match European standards, this would require an additional 30g per tonne. Again, using 2017 Chinese steel production as a benchmark, this would equate to another 24kMt (thousand metric tonnes) of vanadium. cont (1)

A rerating is the increase in market value of a company in response to positive trading expectations. It's got nothing to do with share suspensions or anything of that kind. The price is bid upwards and if you're a holder the price you can are able to sell your stock back to the market is obviously higher than it was prior to the rerating Essentially, it is the market affording the stock a higher price-earnings ratio - the market is expecting future EPS to be much higher than old forecasts

http://minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/canavan/speeches/appea-conference excerpt - 'This is why I am so excited about developing resources like the Beetaloo Basin. It is exciting that we could expand resource exports through the development of these fields. It is exciting that they could provide much needed jobs in the Northern Territory. But it is even more exciting about what the impact could be for Australia's energy security. There is a lot of interest in the Beetaloo Basin. Some of my geologists think that it could be as prospective as some of the shale fields in the United States. That of course means there could be a lot of gas, but there also could be significant discoveries of oil too. The latest estimates reckon that 1 billion barrels of oil could be discovered but more could be found once exploration starts. I think we should be more strident in selling the Australian gas industry as not just a great producer of prosperity but also an industry that is critical to our national security too.' cont.

yes, I thought precisely the same myself - TOTAL will now be looking at expanding elsewhere to fill the gap if they do leave Iran, which looks likely nice rise in volume today - a useful lead indicator (sometimes)