Member Info for schlemiel

I'd wait for a price dip but don't 'pile in' on a spike, should there be one. That always ends in tears, well it does for me anyhow. That's the only advice I can give. gl

I hope the MMs do smash down first thing. Purging the stock of weak holders would be a healthy development. What I like about this stock is the embedded demand for it. We know there's lots of of developments down the line and that expectation encourages further buying interest.

A strong shake (they're not advertised so it takes experience to spot one) of the price does suggest a buyer looking to fill their order. Of course not every price fall is a tree-shake. Many price falls are a response to heavy selling due to a variety of factors both company specific or market specific.

Rick Rule's been predicting this and that vis a vis metals prices for decades. Does he ever call it correctly? No. He's got a worse record than I have

The lower the price of gold the better for GGP. My logic? A lower gold price puts pressure on Newcrest to up their search for sources of high grade ore for gold-copper to feed Telfer. Biswas is on record on saying that the best hedge against volatile metal prices is not a Hedge instrument but a lower AISC to maintain margins. Well, he needs higher grade ore to inject life into the margins at Telfer

Tiggerman

A cat that wakes you up at 'market time'. Crumpet sounds even more excited about this week's events. Does Crumpet own shares in GGP as well?!

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-quarterly-activities-and-cashflow-report.5362033/

'During the quarter Rumble announced multiple first order targets at its newly formed Warroo Project, located in the highly sought-after Fortescue/Paterson Province region, which has attracted renewed interest following significant recent discoveries by Rio Tinto Limited at the large Winu copper-gold project and the Newcrest Mining – Greatland Gold joint venture at the exciting Havieron gold-copper project.'........Rumble's excited by Havieron ;)

'The Paterson Province is one of the most highly endowed yet under-explored mineral provinces in Australia. It hosts the world-class Telfer gold-copper mine and the Nifty copper mine.'

'Impacts of Coronavirus on Exploration Activities – Lamil Project
On 26 March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia, the Western Australian Government in partnership with the Commonwealth Government implemented restrictions for access to designated regions in the State to protect the health and wellbeing of residents in remote Aboriginal communities. The designated regions include parts of the Shire of East Pilbara that encompass the communities of Jigalong, Martu homeland communities and Kiwirrkurra. The southern part of the Lamil Project (most of tenement E45/5271) is impacted by these restrictions and as such all fieldwork is now on hold until the restrictions are lifted. The duration of these restrictions is uncertain as at the date of this report.'

release on PNG. Why would they do that? An attempt to reassure the market? PNG is politically risky for NCM. They really do need to find a huge discovery in a safe jurisdiction..oh, wait :)

cheers fellas..

let the countdown begin for an early release

Newcrest news up at 11.15pm? Or is the ASX closed for ANZAC Day?

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/todayAnns.do

Womo - I like your thinking fella. GGP need the price up to prevent a low-ball bid for the entire share capital of GGP. PRIM expect an offer sometime after the release of the MRE (late Q2, early Q3) - I'd say that's around June-August window..I'm holding for the possible pay-off and more corporate and drilling developments...there's so much more news to come both in a wider corporate sense, in the wider Paterson region and for GGP specifically....though I am certain we will see hefty profit taking at some point, which is natural..I've got enough cash to pay my family's bills for the next 6 months so I can sit back, ride the volatility and await developments

Good luck to all holders in whatever you decide...enjoy the wealth, life's too short

'maiden resource estimate for a small part of the overall mineralised system.'...The MRE is just the start for uncovering the total value at Havieron

“Our view on the end-game (exit) for our investment in Greatland is very simple. In our opinion Newcrest Mining will seek to acquire the entire share capital in Greatland in the near future, possibly just post a maiden resource estimate for a small part of the overall mineralised system. We expect this maiden resource in late Q2 to early Q3 of this year.”

Is Primorous talking their own book or do they genuinely believe that this will event will become a reality in the next few months? Moreover, are they expressing the opinion of Heddle? Primorous did say they enjoy regular contact with the management of Greatland Gold. Is PRIM Heddle's conduit?

Time will tell

lode

An intriguing play is Falcon Oil and Gas (FOG). Irish gas company with JV with the Aussie giant Origin Energy. They found a huge gas play in the Northern Territory (Aus) at Beetaloo. 6.6tcf already declared. It's similar in many ways to GGP except it's gas not gold-copper. No debt on balance sheet.

Risks - exploration risk. Political issues though the NTG are now heavily committed to the project but green fascists constantly harass and incite fear. But the asset (or FOG's stake should I say) will eventually be taken out by either Origin, INPEX (Japan's desire for Aussie gas is insatiable). Jemena is planning to monetise the asset by building a pipeline from Beetaloo to Darwin for processing the gas to LNG and for export to Japan and China

It's not without risk though so not for risk-averse, nervy investors. I did hold quite a number but reduce that massively. Once drilling resumes in the Northern Territory

FOG's aim is simple. Prove up the asset, monetise the asset. No capex obligations.

It's a medium term play but not without risk but then that's exploration and drilling for you. Accept the risk or don't get involved. Buy Marks and Spencer

My only other holdings are, in differing quantities but veering to GGP, in the main

GGP
SEE
SOLG
FOG

apologies for o/t

It's worth noting that the Farm-in agreement (and the tolling agreement) that was agreed last year was before Newcrest discovered a massive gold-copper discovery. I reckon Newcrest have been taken aback at what they have uncovered. If Havieron was a T2 asset then I suspect we'd see a move to production with GGP involvement but now we believe it's a T1 high grade find Newcrest will want the entire shebang for itself and they'll pay for the privilege

I admit to being intrigued by the massive rise in activity on this board since Friday PM and Saturday. That triggers my suspicions. Attempts to confuse. Attempts to inject uncertainty into the minds of holders. Maybe to unnerve? It's not coincidental that we have news due next week.

SXX was unable to raise the necessary finance to pay for the massive capital investment needed to bring their main asset into production. Small investors (and I am guilty of this myself) always focus on the theoretical value contained within a virgin asset (oil, gas, gold, copper, lithium, nickel etc) embedded beneath the earth's surface without understanding that to extract and exploit that asset for income and hopefully profit requires monies to be spent and those pennies must come from somewhere. That somewhere is YOU, the SHAREHOLDER in the form of dilution. Equity financing. Debt financing. The shareholder pays in one way or another. For SXX its shareholders paid the ultimate price (they sold their equity at minimal value so that the asset could be at last mined. The buyer wasn't gonna pay over the odds and then spend billions more in capex bringing the asset to production)

At least with GGP there'll be no capex demands. As Reddirt said in one of his posts, 'Newcrest want the whole of Havieron and probably our other Paterson based licences as well expect Tasmania' (loosely quoted). The 30% is all pure profit ignoring tax consequences of course

There's no such thing as a free-lunch unless of course you're a Labour politician or a Tory politician who abuses the private sector taxpayer to finance political spending (throwing cash at the socialist client state without any regard for value.

Cash is king and cash talks. Agreements can be re-written. Nothing is sacred.

I'm just speculating mate-mate-ess

We have 30% of a T1, high grade gold-copper discovery to monetise. I don't know and neither does the market what is contained at Havieron. Heddle and Biswas will have an idea. Is the cash value of our 30% worth more than he current market capitalisation of GGP? (excluding all our exploration and other assets on the balance sheet)

Note, that Havieron is still expanding in size so the cash value of our 30% continues to increase assuming of course the pay-dirt is still being uncovered

30% = what's it worth?

the market loves monetisation...we have that, 30% of it. We have the discovery. yes, GGP is still an exploration company but one with a very special discovery on its books and one that is so desperately wanted by Newcrest

If you were Rio watching events at Havieron, you'd be thinking. Wow, that's special. Let's takeover Newcrest and try and get Havieron for peanuts

How is the absolute monetary value of Havieron (the 100%) actually determined? It can't be the MRE as this is only a partial determination of what Hav contains. Will it be the PFS or the FS study itself? Will it be a resource and reserves document under JORC rules?

I suppose, the final price will be a judgement based on many factors

I'm of the opinion that Newcrest will want 100% of Havieron. it boosts their balance sheet with a high grade, quality asset and will boost their EPS from a high margin asset (once they retire their silly hedge on Telfer production)..PRIM did say GGP will not be involved in production...they're right imho

so what price will Newcrest pay for the 5% and then the remaining 25%? I believe the price will be more than the market cap of GGP

and then we have the other nearby licences...now the area has been proven to contain decent mineralisation they have become MORE valuable as a result..the prospectivity of the region guarantees more JV's and cash injections into explorers...i'm convinced of that.

but, let all share-holders act according to their own best interests and that freedom to act, to take control of our future, to take responsibility of our decision-making and to accept the consequences..that's the market for you..it's the one part of life where you rise and fall directly as a result of the decisions you and you alone take

f-ck politicians (especially Labour slime) and their attempts to encourage State dependency, to destroy personal responsibility, destroy morality and to take your capital from you so that they can spend it on a massive increase in State power and political control....

sorry, I'm off on one now but beware the siren calls of the CV-19 propaganda authorities with their emotional blackmail advertisements on tv...Labour's client state is now in full propaganda mode and the Tories haven't got a clue how to react to it...

Stick it into an ISA. sorted, no CGT, no income tax, no need to include it on your tax return...it's a tax wrapper..