BHP and Solgld - Investors Chronicle - 25 June 202027 Jun 2020 14:06
IC article last week regarding a possible offer for SOLG from BHP but no reference to Newcrest. Last week Newcrest also withdrew its nominee Director from the SOLG board. I wonder if Newcrest has decided to completely sell its stake in SOLG and focus on GGP?
Mergers & Acquisitions - June 25 2020
Survival of the fittest
''Among the developers, SolGold (SOLG) is the focus. It has said for years it wants to take copper-gold project Alpala all the way to production, but a cash takeover offer from BHP (BHP) somewhere above 40p is likely to be persuasive to shareholders.''
-Mine for the taking
Below the majors, the whole mining world is built on mergers and acquisitions. Why? Finding and building a mine is hard and expensive, so juniors often want to find a big deposit and get rich by selling it on to a bigger company. Covid-19 has done little to disrupt that dynamic.
Even at the top level, buying ounces of gold, for example, is more attractive than spending 10 years up a mountain drilling holes. Even before gold spiked a year ago, the industry had seen major consolidation, most keenly felt in London by the loss of Randgold Resources through the merger with Barrick Gold (Can:ABX). Now the playing field is different.
The big company moves have largely been made in the gold space and the largest players are looking further afield, beyond the pure money creation of gold mining. Barrick chief executive Mark Bristow has floated a takeover of major copper miner Freeport-McMoRan (US:FCX). This would have been unthinkable two years ago, when Barrick was worth under C$20bn (£11.9bn) and Freeport worth around $24bn (£19bn). The diverging paths of copper and gold since then has seen Barrick jump up to a C$58bn valuation and Freeport remain the same.
Further down the chain in London, miners with some cash flow are looking around for expansion options. Hummingbird Resources (HUM) has just bought a project in Guinea that suited it better than an existing development it had in Liberia, while Centamin (CEY) has cemented its West African interest by hiring former Toro Gold boss Martin Horgan. Mr Horgan moved on from Toro, a private company that brought a mine to production in Senegal, when Resolute Mining (RSG) bought it out last year.
Among the developers, SolGold (SOLG) is the focus. It has said for years it wants to take copper-gold project Alpala all the way to production, but a cash takeover offer from BHP (BHP) somewhere above 40p is likely to be persuasive to shareholders.
It’s harder to say whether this amounts to a window of opportunity for investors. While the pandemic’s economic scars will change the outlook for all commodities – thereby raising the cost of capital for some producers – miners must always take a multi-decade view. But for those groups that are newly flush with cash, the temptation will always be to recycle profits into empire building. AH
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