RE: Hannam14 Dec 2020 18:55
Upcoming catalysts & timeline to production
Offtake discussions are ongoing with a large multinational trading company, and we note the company "anticipate[s] reaching a commercial [offtake] agreement very soon". Bluejay expects the agreement to cover a minimum of 200ktpa and potentially up to 300ktpa, roughly 2/3 of Dundas' annual production. The combination of an Exploitation Licence and Offtake deal would give a solid platform to explore various project financing options, in our view. There is also the potential for an offtake deal to come with a funding commitment, allowing JAY to accelerate the ongoing optimisation of its PFS and commence a full Bankable Feasibility Study. We have modelled first production from 2023, subject to Governmental sign-off of the exploitation and closure plan by the end of 2022, as stipulated in the Exploitation Licence awarded today. With the PFS review targeting capital and operating cost reductions, we have assumed in our DCF that the initial capex budget will be ~US$200m, compared to the US$245m in the 2019 PFS. Meanwhile, we note JAY is considering the installation of renewable power capacity; while we believe this may involve additional capital, it could also attract very low cost state-backed loans or grants, whilst reducing energy costs.
Valuation - sensitivity to price upside
We retain a Dec'21 target price of 20p per share, implying 62% upside from the current price. This is based on a WACC of 8% and long-term real ilmenite price of US$200/t (FOB), more conservative than the PFS inputs of 5% and US$232/t, respectively. Based on the potential size of the Resource, we model 17 years of production beyond the 9-year PFS Reserve. On this basis we reach an NPV of US$268m for Dundas, to which we apply a 0.8x multiple. We then add a further US$60m in nominal value for JAYs earlier-stage but equally attractive exploration assets: US$30m for Disko, US$10m for Kangerluarsuk and US$20m for the Finnish licences. Adjusting for working capital and G&A, we derive a total Dec'21E SOTP of ~US$257m (20p/sh). Furthermore, we note for every US$10/t delta in ilmenite we would see a ~US$32m change (~12.5%) in our Dundas NPV, equivalent to a ~2.6p change in SOTP; marking-to-market for current ilmenite prices of ~US$260/t, this would imply ~80% further upside to our PT.
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