RE: CA results28 Sep 2021 08:24
Whilst the Fund would have preferred not to have had to endure the past 18 months as a shareholder in Hurricane, the share price weakness enabled the Fund to take advantage by more than doubling its shareholding from 1 January 2021 to 30 June 2021 to 22.6% and it successfully defended the interests of all shareholders on a crucial point of law. The Fund currently owns more than 25% of Hurricane and is the largest shareholder.
In August 2021, after a further request from Crystal Amber, Hurricane finally launched a tender offer for up to 50% of the outstanding bonds. Allocating up to $80 million of its cash, initially the tender was priced at up to 72 cents, but this was increased to 78 cents. Whilst the Fund fails to understand the amount of time taken by the board to implement the buyback of the bonds (in early July 2021, the bonds were trading at just 49.25 cents), purchasing just over one third of the bonds in issue has reduced Hurricane's capital and interest obligations by approximately $22 million. This represents an important and material saving. Without the Fund's successful intervention at the High Court, this would not have happened.
The Fund now believes that Hurricane must secure an extension with Bluewater Energy Services B.V. (from whom Hurricane leases the Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel). This will secure the prospects of significantly increased free cash flow generation for equity holders. The Fund believes that a twelve month extension is required.
Latest production information from Hurricane is that its P6 well is producing 11,100 barrels per day. This compares well with the company's production forecasts (released in May 2021) estimating production for August 2021 at 9,500 barrels per day. Production for June and July were also ahead of forecast. The latest production shipment in August 2021 was for 505,000 barrels and it is estimated that this generated around $34 million of revenue.
At anticipated production levels, the Fund estimates that by February 2024, 8.3 million barrels will be produced. At a selling price of $68 a barrel, $570 million of revenues will be achieved. Based on historic margins, this would deliver operating cash flows of around $250 million. By the time the bonds are due to be repaid, the Fund estimates that 3.3 million barrels can be produced, generating $227 million of revenue and around $110 million of operating cash flow. These revenues and cash flows are taken from the current oil producing asset within Hurricane's portfolio. Set against this context, whilst inevitable production risk remains, the Fund believes the prospects for Hurricane are far better than has been presented by its executives.
The Fund notes and welcomes that since the court hearing, actual production achieved has been running materially ahead of budget and in August, it exceeded budget by more than 20 per cent at 11,467 barrels a day.
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