Member Info for schlemiel

'The @AlboMP
must not spend $1.5 billion of taxpayer funds on a giant climate and health wrecking petrochemical plant in Darwin Harbour using fracked Beetaloo gas as a feedstock.

It’s a massive public subsidy for an appalling new gas project.
7:37 am · 21 Aug 2022·'

https://mobile.twitter.com/EnviroCentreNT/status/1561241146361540610/photo/1

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/17/fears-second-darwin-port-and-industrial-hub-could-have-significant-adverse-impacts-on-health

Although Omnivision are there and Junko Yoshida (EE Times)

https://www.businesswire.com/news/beverlyhillschamber/20220823005223/en

https://auto-sens.com/incabin/speakers/

SEE not in attendance but Tues 13 Sept PMC in London

RG- thanks for that

RG - Well, if your calcs are correct and I don't doubt that they are, Beetaloo is preparing for a hell of a number of wells to frack....they're making preparations for Beetaloo's wholesale development, that's my guess

'This water will be used to clean sand for a huge sand mine which may supply up to 10 million tonnes of sand to fracking companies in the Beetaloo Basin.'

Is 10m tonnes a lot of wells?

And how would a new partner alongside Origin affect Falcon?

''Meanwhile, Origin is seeking a partner to take up a stake in its Beetaloo assets where production testing of the Amungee NW H1 returned gas flow at a normalised rate of between 5.2MMscfd and 5.8MMscfd.''

31 minutes ago. 22 Aug 2022

https://stockhead.com.au/energy/heres-why-the-beetaloo-is-starting-to-heat-up/

Beetaloo poised to fly

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/saudi-prince-says-oil-futures-disconnect-may-force-opec-action

excerpt

'This vicious circle is amplified by the flow of unsubstantiated stories about demand destruction, recurring news about the return of large volumes of supply, and ambiguity and uncertainty about the potential impacts of price caps, embargoes, and sanctions.
In your view, how is the current volatility impacting the functioning of markets?

This is detrimental because without sufficient liquidity, markets can’t reflect the realities of the physical fundamentals in a meaningful way and can give a false sense of security at times when spare capacity is severely limited and the risk of severe disruptions remains high.

Nowadays, one need not look far for evidence of this. The paper and physical markets have become increasingly more disconnected. In a way, the market is in a state of schizophrenia, and this is creating a type of a yo-yo market and sending erroneous signals at times when greater visibility and clarity and well-functioning markets are needed more than ever to allow market participants to efficiently hedge and manage the huge risks and uncertainties they face.
Will OPEC+ have to respond?

In OPEC+ we have experienced a much more challenging environment in the past and we have emerged stronger and more cohesive than ever. OPEC+ has the commitment, the flexibility, and the means within the existing mechanisms of the Declaration of Cooperation to deal with such challenges and provide guidance including cutting production at any time and in different forms as has been clearly and repeatedly demonstrated in 2020 and 2021.

Soon we will start working on a new agreement beyond 2022 which will build on our previous experiences, achievements, and successes. We are determined to make the new agreement more effective than before. Witnessing this recent harmful volatility disturb the basic functions of the market and undermine the stability of oil markets will only strengthen our resolve.'

nice article, thanks

Last week Upstream did refer to 'patience' in relation to Beetaloo commercialisation but it cannot be denied there is now a cemented, recognisable timeline.

Wed is the start of SEAAOC at Nat Res week in Darwin with all the players in attendance but as ever Origin maintainig a low profile. I am convinced this is deliberate and indeed politcal with Origin being a retail provider as well as a producer and explorer

https://ntresourcesweek.com.au/seaaoc/agenda/

https://www.publish.csiro.au/aj/pdf/AJ21018

'ABSTRACT

This study assesses the prospectivity of the world’s oldest known stacked petroleum systems from the Proterozoic greater McArthur Basin (Northern Territory, Australia), which has immense
potential to host both conventional natural gas and oil, in addition to shale-gas accumulations.
The Mesoproterozoic succession of the Beetaloo Sub-basin and surrounding region hosts the
Territory’s premier shale-gas play and is at an advanced stage of exploration for shale hydrocarbon plays. However, there is also potential for natural gas in older sedimentary packages, with flows and shows reported in underlying Paleoproterozoic successions. At the continent-scale, four regional petroleum supersystems are identified and described in order to provide a platform for consistent nomenclature at the sedimentary package and group level; in ascending stratigraphic order;

these are the Paleoproterozoic Redbank and McArthur supersystems, the Paleoproterozoic–
Mesoproterozoic Lawn Supersystem, and the Mesoproterozoic Beetaloo Supersystem. The
Redbank and Lawn supersystems are newly named and defined, and the Beetaloo Supersystem is renamed from the former Urapungan Supersystem. Eight possible conventional natural gas plays and six shale-gas plays are documented within the McArthur Supersystem, which incorporates Glyde Package successions of the McArthur Basin and the Birrindudu Basin. Petroleum play concepts are also described from this supersystem to assist with assessing the potential for gas resources. A better understanding of the petroleum systems of the greater McArthur Basin is critical to the targeting of areas for geoscience data acquisition in order to facilitate the reduction of exploration search space; and it enables a more rigorous assessment of the potential for conven-tional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources at local (play) and regional scales.'

'404'd'

Origins EMP - 'ORI11-1: Amungee NW Delineation Program EP98 Environment Management Plan' has been 404's on the NTG site. I can't find it. I'm sure this was the EMP that Unlock the Gates to impoverishment said was the pilot production project in disguise

Newcrest is the second-biggest shareholder in London listed SolGold, which is developing a prospective copper and gold project in Ecuador.

SolGold aborted an attempt to raise funds over the past month leading to the exit of chief financial officer Ayten Saridas after just 45 days in the job.

Newcrest and SolGold’s biggest shareholder, BHP, have traditionally wanted the pre-revenue company to raise cash through share issuance, but the previous management of SolGold defied their requests and instead opted for high-cost debt.

Mr Biswas reiterated on Friday that he was disappointed by that decision and expected it would not happen again.

“At that time there was also a public announcement by the company that that was a one-off and that future raisings would be more along the lines of allowing existing shareholders to be part of the fundraising activity in relation to an equity raise,” he said.

But Mr Biswas said SolGold had again sought to raise funds through methods other than share issuance over the past month.

’They chose not to do that, they went back to what happened last year and we...did not support that proposal,” he said.

Mr Biswas said he was also keen for the Papua New Guinea government to help Newcrest and Harmony Gold push ahead with the long-stalled Wafi-Golpu project.

Newcrest shareholders will receive a US20¢ final dividend, taking total dividends for the year to US27.5¢.

Barrenjoey analyst Dan Morgan predicted that Newcrest shares could rise during Friday’s trading session based on the better-than-expected profit, the solid production guidance for the year ahead and clarification from Newcrest that the Cadia mine had resumed after a recent disruption.

“Newcrest share price has underperformed peers on Cadia outage risk and a lack of FY23 [financial year 2023] guidance. We think this result could spark a relief rally,” he said in a note published shortly before Friday’s trading session.

Newcrest said on Friday that Mr Biswas’ total remuneration for the past year was $US6.22 million including bonuses, with $US1.74 million of that being fixed remuneration.

Newcrest said Mr Biswas’ fixed remuneration would rise by 2.9 per cent after October 1 as a result of a “benchmarking” process.

While Newcrest said the decision was based on price, it may also be an important tactical move designed to avoid a price discovery event for Greatland Gold, which many observers believe is a logical takeover target for Newcrest.

Had Newcrest agreed to pay $US60 million for the extra 5 per cent stake in Havieron, it would have put an implied $US300 million value on Greatland’s 25 per cent stake in Havieron.

Greatland’s market capitalisation was as low as $US466 million in early July before the independent valuer handed down its verdict; aside from Havieron, Greatland has several other copper and gold targets in the province around the Telfer mine.

Newcrest has acquired stakes in some of Greatland’s other projects around Telfer and Havieron, suggesting Australia’s biggest gold miner sees value in Greatland above and beyond its stake in Havieron.

Greatland’s market capitalisation rose after the independent valuer’s verdict was published and was $US549 million at the close of Thursday’s trading session in London.

Newcrest’s decision not to take up the option to buy the extra 5 per cent effectively undermines the valuation boost Greatland received after the independent valuer put the implied $US1.2 billion price tag on the Havieron project.

Mr Biswas said on Friday that Havieron was not the only option to extend Telfer’s life; Newcrest was also studying options to extend the life of the existing open pit at Telfer.

AFR Article - Newcrest / Havieron + SolgoldToday 14:22

Paywall: Cagey Newcrest Baulks at Havieron Gold Price Tag
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/cagey-newcrest-baulks-at-havieron-gold-price-tag-20220819-p5bb5b

Extract Australia’s biggest gold miner will snap a three-year streak of declining gold production and has surprised expectations by declining an option to buy more of Western Australia’s Havieron gold project.

Newcrest Mining vowed to raise gold production by at least 8 per cent to between 2.1 million and 2.4 million ounces of gold in the year ahead after announcing a $US872 million full-year profit.

The profit was better than the $US845 million analyst consensus published by Bloomberg but 25 per cent lower than last year on the back of lower gold production.

Newcrest has been spending heavily on growth options over the past four years to offset the fact its flagship Cadia mine in NSW has passed its peak in terms of gold production volumes.

The increased guidance for the year ahead is largely because of the recent $US2.8 billion acquisition of Canada’s Brucejack mine.

Although Brucejack has given Newcrest an immediate injection of extra gold production, the Havieron gold project in WA looms as a crucial medium-term growth project because without it Newcrest’s nearby Telfer mine would likely need to shut.

Havieron was discovered by London-listed Greatland Gold and Newcrest has acquired a 70 per cent stake in Havieron over recent years by spending $US65 million and completing a detailed feasibility study on the project.

The agreement between Greatland and Newcrest gave the latter the right to buy an extra 5 per cent of the Havieron project last month at a price to be determined by an independent valuer.

The valuer put a $US60 million price tag on that extra 5 per cent stake, giving Havieron a notional value of $US1.2 billion.

Newcrest is rapidly developing growth options to avoid a decline in its gold output by the middle of this decade.

Despite Newcrest’s strong balance sheet – it has a gearing ratio below 11 per cent and an investment grade credit rating – the company said on Friday it would not buy the 5 per cent stake at the price determined by the independent valuer.

“We’re happy with our 70 per cent stake,” said Newcrest chief executive Sandeep Biswas on Friday.

Mr Biswas said the price published by the valuer did not meet Newcrest’s investment hurdles.

“We didn’t think it would deliver the sort of returns and the sort of thinking our shareholders would expect from an owners’ mindset,” he said.

“We have got a lot of projects to allocate capital to and we have got our shareholders to think about too.”

Who knows except Origin, FOG and the NTG but either way FOG is now heading decisively in the right direction

nm