ScampTheDogs' Christmas Monologue. (And a very happy Christmas to each and every one of you!)24 Dec 2022 21:11
Based upon IslesworthSpys' answer (yes) to my open question here is my Kretinsky scenario.
1. Kretinsky increases his stock holding in I.D.S up to the 29% thresehold; he has to exercise the correct amount of decent hesitancy of course...as per the Secretary of States' insistence that he (Kretinsky) gives the ongoing dispute every chance At being amicably resolved. (all in my opinion this).
2. Kretinsky urges the Board to split R.M UK from GLS...more than likely he will be encouraging the Board to do this whilst Steadily increasing his holding over the next several months (or weeks...whichever is the case).
3. The Board, under considerable (privately and behind closed doors) pressure from Kretinsky ("do this or I initiate a takeover attempt") announce that self-preservation is now of the utmost importance (they must protect the profitable GLS' monies from the scheming CWU for the investors sake)...they split the company.
4. Kretinsky would own (at the 29% level...in the present form of IDS)) approx 278,400,000 shares (he owns approx 220,000,000 at this moment). Divide this amount in half and he would have approx 139,200,000 shares in each newly formed company: R.M UK and GLS.
5. This means that each new company has approx 480,000,000 shares...with, as I previously stated, Kretinsky owning approx 139,200,000 in each new company; by my math that works out at about 30% holding in each one of the two.
Conclusion.
Kretinsky does not have to takeover IDS in its present form to take control of GLS...all he has to do is strong-arm the Board into splitting GLS away from IDS and making it a seperate company...then launch a takeover of GLS itself.
And as for the then marooned newly created R.M UK? Its share price just collapses!! I think the share price would be somewhere around £1.00 a share...or even less perhaps. It just might be that Kretinsky instead of going after GLS would then reveal his true hand -- and pounces upon a defenceless R.M UK!! He gets Royal Mail for buttons...and then chops it to Hell and back whilst in the process making himself an awful lot of money. As for GLS? Well that takes care of itself...and in 12 months time probably doubles in value thus ensuring Kretinsky (and us) another extra, mighty big windfall.
A beautifully orchestrated bloodless coup! What price that 4% buyback now then I wonder? Lol. And I think I can hazard a good guess who it was suggested it to the Board in the first place also.
'The Plans of Mice and Men.'