Member Info for SB_1964

I sense that finally, after a lot of false starts via political turmoil, some slightly irrational exuberance from the board (I can partly forgive optimism) and just plain bad luck.. the stars are aligning for Kefi.
I’ll say no more.

Copper inventories are a huge problem going forward.. as they are extremely depleted and future supply is very limited and uncertain.

There hasn’t been anywhere near the depth of exploration work needed to produce new copper supplies in the decade leading to now, making this a long term problem which will push prices sky high, (simply on ‘supply & demand’ metrics) and keep them there.

The Saudi’s are looking at their replacement of oil dependence right here and they will experience another golden era on the back of fuelling the electrification of our planet.

When we join the dots in Saudi and get to project close and mine build commencement the stock price for Kefi will explode….

This may be medium term, which won’t please the jam tomorrow traders… but for investors taking a medium term view.. this is a massive, massive game changer and a very significant investment to hold.

In the case of Kefi as a whole.. we bring gold on stream in Ethiopia prior, which is a perfect financial catalyst for the wider business.

IMHO the art will be in avoiding any further dilution of our partnership with Artar. 30% will do very nicely thank you.

When we close Tulu Kapi mid year, it not only gives certainty to our Ethiopian ambitions for gold, it also lends certainty to our future copper aspirations in Arabia.

Put these two together and you have an incredible metals portfolio, just at the right time in history.

Mid ‘22 seems realistic. There’s quite a bit to do here, and quite a few moving parts. Understatement.

However, we are now already in March and all parties are proactively engaged on this clearly.

We have a roadmap, and something to benchmark milestone achievements against from here on in.

It’s a BIG project, an international public private partnership with both debt and equity players.

Just the legal side will be a significant process.

All things considered - it’s a strong RNS, and one that shows determination and clear intent.

In the spirit of a "new thread" ..

It's notable that within the Kefi website 'Investor Q&A' section, the last narrative (posted 16 Feb 2022) states "a detailed timetable will be sent out by RNS" and this relates specifically to all of the work needed to be undertaken to reach Project Close around "May/June 2022"

It would be extremely beneficial for all stakeholders to get this RNS sooner rather than later, as it will act as the progressive benchmark from now through close. I sense that all updates from thereon in would reference milestone achievements, according to that timetable, and this would then give us all a clear understanding of how we are travelling against plan.

Needless to say, the impact on share price would be meaningful.

Timetable RNS soon then please Harry ....

Agreed brainspark

You could train an orangutan to get this deal done in the current climate.

Over the past 5 years (my investment window) Harry has proved to be a man of many, many gushing words.. a poet possibly… but he has not as yet remotely proved to be a man who delivers cold hard deals. Not even close.

I’m not sure he has the grit and tenacity to hussle and deliver greatness.

He seems to lack the edge needed to physically TRANSACT

We shall soon see.. but if all we need is a semi-trained orangutan in the current climate, we might just win big…

Very Big

Thanks for sharing tintin.. a positive development., with a progressive structure to it (not just diatribe)

We are foremost predicated on the safe harbour asset which the herd always runs to in the event of financial and/or geopolitical risk.. Gold

… and before some bedroom 2 specialist pipes up “but we’re not mining it yet are we?” ….

That’s not the point is it…… the overriding point is .. we OWN the asset, the asset is ever increasing, and the nearer we get to taking the asset (which isn’t going anywhere let’s face it) out of the ground and putting it into the market.. the more we profit….

Simples

My money is on 0.8p not remotely proving to be a log jam.
The next positive RNS blows it into history, or before wouldn’t surprise me….

agreed mate…. I sense we’ll be broadly okay tho personally.
The majority went to those who won’t be living ‘hand to mouth’ and will also/equally have a pretty good handle on how the next few months will likely shape up..

Tintin..

If these shares are predominantly held by people who won’t sell them (for obvious reasons most will not imho) does that constitute an overhang in your view?

Thanks for your insights PP..

I think the bigger picture going forward for Kefi probably lies in copper (CU), although our nearer term success will be largely an early Gold play (Tulu Kapi).

Copper is what will take Kefi from 4p to 40p in 5 years.

Gold gets us noticed and takes us from 1p to 4p by May/June. Plus the equalisation upside to a higher NPV.

All up, and with a background of a commodity super duper cycle… things will get very interesting..

(Despite the meanderings of Kock Ready Steady)

I touched on ‘ascendancy’ a week or so back and some found this amusing/incredulous (most likely nursing large short positions - good luck with that!!!!)

In essence though, a progressive release of milestone achievement RNS’s is ideal now for a steady, incremental share price rise into financial/project close… nothing crazy, just steady, ongoing market cap ascendancy.

If we found ourselves at c. 2p prior to project close in say May, then you’d have to say we’d logically re rate to 4p+ going into mine build phase, maybe considerably more…

That in itself will trigger further ‘ascendancy’ through material, on the ground progress and supporting RNS flow against achievement.

The nearer we get to a reality of production, the nearer the share price gets to NPV..

PP…

I think you’ll find that contractors are in place for both mine build and subsequent operation. They also form part of the Consortium.
I don’t believe that has changed.

Quite a lot has actually been put in place here..

Good news indeed, and practically very helpful for TKGM at this juncture, with an end to curfews, roadblocks and general transportation disruption. All of which would cause on the ground delays with progress from here on in.

Let's hope that we start to get tangible milestone achievements early doors, and don't get anywhere near July with much left to do.
Early, strong, definitive, tangible real-world progress is the brief Harry. Time to over-deliver for a complete change...

It’s a syndicated senior debt piece from two large domestic banks + equity (all agreed subject to security sign off), totalling >US$300MM…
If you want the specifics it’s all on the Kefi website. Enjoy and good luck, your timing is far better than mine.

Thanks Rob..
The monthly updates required by the MOM are precisely what’s needed now aren’t they.. ; they will act as a disciplined and progressive realisation of the pre-determined goal we all seek.
I believe they will all individually warrant an RNS, so we are effectively walking down a corridor, shutting all the doors as we go.. all that then remains is to walk through the one remaining door at the end - Project Close.

I reiterate that I am not a huge fan of HAA.
I am however a huge fan of the underlying KEFI assets here (across the ANS geography) and any progressive process which systematically aligns the in-ground asset values to the prevailing share price has to be an emerging win for stakeholders

It’s 64 … and FRO

I’m happy with that RNS.

It’s been a really tough time for those of us with big shareholding’s here.. not helped remotely by a few big mouthed, cerebrally challenged tw4ts spouting rubbish - but we are now in the ascendancy with momentum. .

pleasure…. an immediate RNS following the “main” meeting on Monday (so soon) might have been the TK game over narrative we dreaded, ie licence withdrawn.

We’ve had no such advisory this week. I’m not a big fan of “no news is good news”, because no news is just no news - however, I’m quite pleased to have heard zilch.. it makes me believe a lot of conversations have been happening..

.. angler I feel the same.

That said, there are a LOT of moving parts to this deal, both financial and human.

The former is across a sizeable, syndicated senior debt structure and numerous private equity peeps,
It also involves equity coming in from “suppliers” and a sovereign government.

They all have lawyers.

The latter is a significant movement of people out of their homes and into new lands, and buildings. That’s a big process in and of itself.

It’s easy for all of us bedroom 2/3 specialists to type away and want things NOW.. heaven knows I’m guilty of this - but, this is not a one dimensional play with a few basic components.

I think we will have a full update by Monday next, and I think there will be a sensible & workable structure to completion. That’s my take and best guess.. based on a quiet week on the back of a positive RNS.. coupled with a knowledge of how we’ve arrived at where we are..

It’s not a pack up and go home scenario to me. Too much invested by too many…

All of that said, I’m not a big fan of HAA for a number of reasons, not least a total lack of emotional intelligence and an ability to both handle and manage the expectations of stakeholders in/around a deal.

Despite the absence of solid, dynamic and progressive leadership, I sense we will get a good result here, coupled with a logical roadmap to project close.

GLA