ineresting discussion on II IMM19 Jun 2019 09:37
hope that the guys there dont mind me copying this across..
Thanks xxxxxxx. Can you see any visibility of Lupuzor where it might end up in the end? One for the bin or still has some hope in it?
xxxxxxxxxx
18 Jun '19 - 20:49 - 34231 of 34232
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xxxxxx - this is a difficult question, especially since I don’t have a crystal ball! I think you need to look at this from a Big Pharma perspective and ask 2 questions 1)What is the cost to run an large 800 patient study in SLE patients, in order to show significant efficacy 2) What are the potential rewards for bringing Lupuzor to market? The answer to the first question, in my estimate, is USD$80 million (rounded up to $100 million once you consider regulatory costs). For the second question, I am more pessimistic and think that Lupuzor, if approved, can generate revenue of $2 billion over a 10 year period (or perhaps $1 billion in profits). So, the overall question is whether you would invest $100 million, in order to deliver USD $1 billion in profits, if the probability of success of the Ph 3 trial you run is about 50%. This is an overly simplistic way of looking at it, because sales revenues will grow over a 10-year period, and there are various ways to provide better estimates eg net present value (NPV), discounted cash flows, etc. You can see how if any of these estimates change - the overall equation will change. Example, if you think that Lupuzor can deliver annual revenues of $400 million ($4 billion over 10 years), then suddenly investing $100 million for this potential return looks very attractive. So, in summary, I think some companies may look at Lupuzor closely and conduct their due diligence on whether to partner with Immupharma. My personal opinion that GSK, who already have Belimumab, will be one of these companies. Bear in mind also that Immupharma will probably want 20% royalty fees on the profits, for being owners of Lupuzor patent. Finally, disclosure that I have not looked at all the Lupuzor data (including patent expiry), so all the discussions and estimates I have put forward are purely hypothetical scenarios.