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This drop is 95% Delta. The curve has now flatlined globaly for about a week and looking at the past covid peaks it should turn down in a week or two, easing pressure on OP. Of you belive a correction is comming you should own cheap stocks -> Enquest, Africa Oil etc are the places to be!! If a correction is 2-3 years out you will miss hugely on the sideline!! :)
Ye then you assume OPEC+ will change output if markets turns out tighter than expected. I’m not so sure. Quite tasty for many members if they could have oil closer to $100 for a while.
US might have 400Kbpd to ad the comming year But I just can’t see them back at 13.1Mbpd! DUCs running out fast and the best well areas are drilled..
I do agree Kraken, in the short term. But as I wrote yesterday, IF theese draws continue through H2 there will actually be a real lack of oil-supply and then we will see huge spikes in prices! But sure one week draw of 12-13Mb make No huge diff.
The numbers in H2 will be verry interesting becouse we enter Q3 well below 5Y avg stocks already…
Well I agree but only to a certain point. We are already well below 5Y avg in US and also below 5Y avg WW now. If we see the same draws in H2 as in H1 2021 I think we will have a price spike. Not to say it’s the best that can happen…
I think we will see many new covid variants during H2 but I think we must focus on deaths and hospitalisations. Considering low numbers there I think we can rule out new lockdowns and mobility to slowly pick back up month by month. I think we will have oil around $70-85 the comming year and that is fantastic for ENQ :)
”Crude inventories fell 4.7 million barrels last week, more than the expected draw of 3.4 million barrels, according to data released Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute.
The API report said gasoline inventory fell by 6.226 million barrels and distillate stocks fell 1.882 million barrels.”
The summer will be mad…
” BREAKING: According to GasBuddy data, weekly US gasoline demand has risen for the 4th straight week to a new pandemic high, up 0.8% from the prior week. Friday and Saturday were barely under prior week, but a strong Sunday early on helped boost the week.”
So we are up VS Memorial day week...Driving is ON in USA!
” BREAKING: According to GasBuddy data, Saturday US gasoline demand rose 6.2% from the prior Saturday, and was 8.1% higher than the average of the last four Saturdays. Weekly (Sun-Sat) gasoline demand hit a new post-COVID record, up 0.6% from the prior week.”
Big demand comming now...
” BREAKING: According to GasBuddy data, Friday US gasoline demand surged 7.4% vs the prior Friday, or 9.4% over the average of the last four Fridays to the single highest daily demand since summer 2019. Demand was 42.6% higher than the Friday of Memorial Day last year.”
So Mr Biden talk the green talk but fear high gasoline prices and the hate of the people so he invite Iran to his livingroom and start emptying SPR for oil. Here you have the real numbers for today! As BULLISH as ever!!!!
Crude oil: -0,6M
Gasoline: -2.0M
Distillates: -2.3M
Refiner utilz: 86.3%
Impld mogas demand: 9.22Mbpd
There are still plenty of gasoline to buy so only positive yet! People are out Driving to fill up, truckers are moving gasoline instead of pipeline = diesel demand up! Boats are moving oil -= Kraken oil to fuel them ;)
All is well lads! Take care! I added a good number ENQs today!