Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
There will be new wells and higher CAPEX for sure, 100%! I see it like this right now for full 2022:
Magnus 15K
Kraken 21K
Other UK 3,5K
Malaysia 6,5K
GE 10K
TOTAL: 56K
BUT since ENQ ALWAYS manage to disappoint I´d say 50-55K should be fine. If we have brent above $85 then the FCF should reach +$700M and our SP +100% at least =)
Hahaha!! So very funny Indeed Pelle! Think he has failed big time here..
But maybe he can turn this around now!! They must do a remarkable bad job in 2022 to not deliver value for us! With the new better field-structure (low cost) and OP +$85, FCF +$700M, this is set for at least +100% this year!
Haha! Might be so Pelle But let’s hope not! Maersk has for example 10X profit vs pre covid so they should be able to pay ;)
Nice to know the we get +$90/barrel for our Kraken oil! 2022 must be the year we finally take of! We should do so even if production stay bellow 50K/d!! +$700M FCF can’t be ignored can if?? Probably inline with Netflix FCF LOL :)
Agree on the DUCs! They have gone from ~8900 to ~4800 in ~20 moths! This can´t go on! I belive at least half of the remaining DUCs will never be drilled but are only there for the "balance sheet".
EIA say US enters 2022 producing around 11,6Mbpd and exit around 12,2Mbpd. I think it´s overstated but I also belive they will grow if OP keep up. Maybe close to 12Mbpd in dec 2022.
But what I belive is even more overrated is OPEC+ spare capacity! They are to raise production by 400K/m and I really don´t see it since even the big players starting to slow, like ZERO groth for Russia in December. It will be interesting to follow! I think this will create the real panic! =)
Enquest I refer to this:
” but following performance issues in 2021, I'm quite confident that there will be an impairment or write-off to a number of Enquests' assets.”
This has all to do with FPSO problems and not the fields…
Very complient, even Russia now. No more dry powder?? +400K/d/month?? Nooo :)
” Total OPEC+ quota compliance climbed to 116.5%, the highest since the alliance instituted record output cuts in spring 2020, the survey found, with the 19 members subject to production targets pumping some 620,000 b/d below their combined caps”
This is so Bullish. Soon out of spare cap?
” #OPEC oil output boost in December again undershoots target
OPEC output rises 70,000 bpd from November
Compliance with OPEC+ cut pledges rises to 127%
Angola, Nigeria among producers unable to reach targets”
Ye! They need to get thoose pumps going! Seems Russia is all out of spare cap. Dec OPEC+ increase not even 200K, vs allowed 400K. Prob some 800K/d under quotas..
”The global crude inventory declines by 16.4mb last week, AGAIN. That is 2.3 million barrels per day!
#OOTT”
” US SPR crude inventories fell by ~1.3mb w/w to 593.7mb last week. That is the lowest level since November 2002 - #OOTT”
Re L3: One week of FCF. Matters ZERO
Who will make these ”400K/month” increase now?? Panic is comming to town ho ho ho…
Giovanni Staunovo
#Russia: Production of oil and gas condensate in December stayed at around 10.9 million bpd, in line with November, despite Russia's OPEC+ quota rising by 100,000 bpd #oott
#Russia seen missing its May target for pre-pandemic oil output #oott https://reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-seen-missing-its-may-target-pre-pandemic-oil-output-2021-12-28
#Russia seen missing its May target for pre-pandemic oil output #oott
So boring Pelle! FCF = 10% MC 2021 and 20% next year. Why would you wanna go there? 2+1% divi..
If you want good boring just add some Tethys Oil in Sweden. Should give 10-15% divi for next year :)
I do belive that in a 3-5Y timeframe AOI and ENQ Will do much better..