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Well i think 55K/d is at the high end since ENQ keeps letting us down on prod. I have 53K as basecase now, But with protential of +58K.
I think 35% has (~ 7M/20M) $76 ceiling. So my guess for OP is $80. Still belive Goldmans bullcase ;)
Debt reduction should be at least $600M on this…
Kraken the worst hedges are over now, better times ahead AND GE not hedged at all = +$80 for that part! Think we could be between $75-80 until next summer and then if the oil gold up even reach higher! =)
I have us at c $600M FCF next year. So if MCAP stays flat and debt are down to $6-700M this EV/FCF will look sooo strange!!
Yea I see. And I was reffering to the fact that they have already done that, and more LOL!
It´s not like they will be able to flush 30M out in a week or two anyway. And beeing at a 18 year low do they dare to continue?? How many days of supply makes you safe?? 30? 20? 10?
I think what is heard to little in this "debate" is the fact that they realease from SPR every week now (3Mb last week alone!) and are now at a 18 year low on the SPR level!! How low can they take it before it´s not filling it´s function anymore??
Hahaha! Checking in here today and find myself at a funeral. Must be a good time to fill up then! I always try to buy when the feeling is on a real lowpoint on this board! They are making extreme FCF at theese OP no matter what some here are saying! Numbers on Marketscreener confirm what 5-10 people here see in our own spreadsheets. Once Kraken get it´s loading going again next week we will head for 30p and in 2022 on to 50-60p =)
Have a great weekend!
Well some may call it a build, I say it’s a big draw. SPR down to lowest level in almost 20 years in US!!!
Reuters:
” Crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 1 million barrels in the week to Nov. 5, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.1 million barrels. The increase was due in part to a 3.1 million-barrel release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the largest since July 2017.
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has been discussing whether to announce more releases from the SPR to restrain rising oil prices. The SPR is generally utilized in times of emergency, or through routine sales previously approved by U.S. Congress. Wednesday's decline in stocks brought the SPR to its lowest levels since July 2003.”
From IR a few daysw ago...
"The asset is producing, albeit at reduced rates currently from our usual output as we continue our remediation efforts. We expect this to be short term disruption to production.
To answer your other question, we are obligated to disclose material differences to market expectations (on the upside or downside) under the listing rules.
Kind regards
Ian"
Update from IR!! Feels good, thoug bad :)
” The asset is producing, albeit at reduced rates currently from our usual output as we continue our remediation efforts. We expect this to be short term disruption to production.
To answer your other question, we are obligated to disclose material differences to market expectations (on the upside or downside) under the listing rules.” (Question about if the impact is severe..)