The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Well maybe you have read my posts on Avanza around Africa Oil. I’m extremely impressed by that company! In only 22 months time they have reduced debt by over $1000M (inc debt reduction in Prime 50%). They are now debt free by the end of Q1 2022 in all their companys and MC below $700M!! This means an EV/FCF around 1-1.5 with oil at $75!! Even sicker than ENQ lol. They also have other assets (beside 50% Prime) wich could very Well end up being sold for as much as current MC of the group!
They will also declare how much buybacks/divi to come in Feb! So verry close, not likeENQ haha ;)
I now have about the same amount in AOI as I have in ENQUEST. Belive in OP going forward and both theese companies will do great!
Well, when will the world see oil is heading where gas is now! ATH!!
EIA Report
Total Stocks: -9.5M (inc spr)
Crude Oil: -7.3M
Comercial OIl: -4.7M
SPR: -2.5M
Gasoline: +5.5
Distilite Fuel Oil: +.4
Propane: -.8
Residential Fuel oil -.3
Production: -100 (11600) Drop in production!!!!
Imports:+489
Exports:-766
Seems Bullish
No, 44K is the year with Magnus in trouble, Malysia at 60% and Kraken a bit low AND no GE. Year ”proforma” inc thoose problems and inc GE is 54,5K as per 31 Oct. Of they fix Malysia, Magnus and include GE we will have 55-60K next year. But i say 50-55 to be on the safe side! Still unbeliveble cheap campany! 1X FCF and NO taxes in the next 5 years :)
I sent the question to IR and they didn´t whant to give a strait answere. Think I agree with Kraken here that Magnus is prob not working 100% yet. But for me it´s not the end of the world. 2021 is kind of a lost year, except for GE that was a truely great deal! We are now back above 50K in 2022 and if oil hold +70 we will sit in a bigger boat by the end of next year. If reduce MC from net debt the SP should be up 100% at least =)
Up?? Russia out of spare cap? Libya back in war??
”Russia's oil and gas condensate output has edged up to 10.90 million barrels per day (bpd) between Dec. 1-19 from an average 10.89 million bpd in November: RTRS cites two sources.
#OOTT”
#OOTT #Libyaoil Worth Watching: 3 Libyan oil fields reportedly joined today's shutdown. Wafa also home to gas field supplying EU gas through Greenstream pipe, no information yet on whether supply affected.
Crude oil: -4.6M
SPR: -2.0M
Gasoline: -0.7M
Distillates: -2.9M
Impld mogas demand: 9.47Mbpd
Total Pet.products -17,8Mb!!
This is just sick! And from already low levels!!
I also think total implied demad is at ATH with 23,2Mbpd!
I think they will have a hard time to disappoint from here! The market is pricing in our 45K at the moment and a new target shoud be 50-55K at least wich should take us higher and the reduction of net debt by +$500M during 2022 should also take us way higher in the comming 12 months! This is a no brainer hold for next 24 months! =)
My bad case for 2022 is:
Magnus: 14K
Kraken: 20K
Other UK: 3K
Malaysia: 5K
GE. 10K
Total = 52K
I really don´t see that we should end up any lower than 52K in total for 2022! I think +55K is still more likely -> FCF +$600M =)
We still have great potential for $50M/month debt reduction in 2022, is that not a good pace?? Not big diff for us at current OP vs $85 if you factor in the hedge ($74). We will benefit from higher OP in H2 next year without hedge in place now! Current lower oil prices sets us up for even higher prices in H2 2022 if you think about shale CAPEX etc leading på lower production than otherwise in 2022/2023. I say we are in for h*** a ride here in 2022/2023! =)
NO sorry! NO matter how many times u write that you can’t have my shares below 60p :)
” Dr Angelique Coetzee, the South African doctor who first spotted the new Covid variant Omicron, says the patients seen so far have had "extremely mild symptoms" -”
From all we hear there will be no lasting lockdown on this :)
Well I think it’s a bit early to call it terrible! From what I read no severe case in vaccinated so far. This is from the two latest in Australia not even feeling it:
” The two positive cases, who were asymptomatic, are in isolation in the special health accommodation. Both people are fully vaccinated,” NSW Health said.”
So production outside of OPEC+ Wasn’t really comming back fast enough at Brent ~$85. Let’s try $70-75 with lack of labour, extreme prices on steel n other supply! Maybe it will be better?? LOL. This will only lead one way! Even though the road there might hurt a bit. 60p PARTY!!! :)
Totally agree on that point Jan! They will act and keep supply under controll. In 1-3 months time this will be positive on OP! More SPR gonne and Commercial stocks lower anyway! And ENQ hover around hegde roof atm so no diff there :)