focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Hi, we've traded 9m shares today alone. Cumulative volume since the last TR1 is well over 12m shares. If they're not out now, they certainly won't be far off.
Itisagame... what do you think they can realistically achieve via the strategic review?.
Also, has the company really got £90m of assets post paying off all debt and liabilities?. If so this looks like a good company.
Ok, so the bad news is now out the way and the only thing to look forward to now is the forward plan. This is now trading at 10% of what it once was 11 months ago.
Opex per therm is very low at 13.9p. Sale price per therm was well over 300p for Jan. Current price per therm is 150p and is expected to trade within or above this range for a couple of years due to the Russian invasion. Therefore, netback is very high from current production and uptime has also drastically improved. If fluid handling capacity is improved onshore then Blythe can produce at higher rates.
They're sat on more than £32m of cash and have a work programme to potentially drill 4 wells this year. Ideally they will complete the A1 well now that they have the logs and data from A2 but rethink the completion as clearly the frack job on A2 was overdone and not in the right zones leading to water ingress from the aquifers. They may opt to drill into a known thicker zone of the reservoir rather than go for the east and west approach, at leas that way you have lower chances of breaching the water zones via stimulation. This would make more sense and would be a safe and quick option as the well is already permitted and rig ready.
If they announce to skip A1 and go to Blythe instead, this will likely be spud in March or April as some permits are still outstanding. Nevertheless, they have a plan and they still have 3 or 4 assets they can drill to further increase production.
Remember, revenues last year were almost £80m so the payback and profitability is very high and real when it works.
Some people bringing up the bond repayments etc. These are not due till Sep 2024, so plenty of time this year to turn things around and then renegotiate (which is standard practice) if you can show the assets are throwing off plenty of cash.
bottom line is that there is no other producer I can think of at this MCAP, generating this much revenue and with remaining assets to drill. This is cheap. Yes it's risky but if one of the next drills comes in then happy days.
They are partnered with a top company with plenty of cash and it's all about gas for the next decade or two.
Gross production in 2022, our first year as a producer, averaged 27.4 mmscf/d from First Gas in March, with total IOG revenue of £79.6 million and cash opex of 13.9 p/therm. We ended the year with £32.4 million in cash, of which £5.7 million is restricted.
Not what we wanted to hear given all the resources and effort deployed on the well. Nevertheless, it better informs them on the A1 plan. Luckily we still have a few drills lined up, which if done properly could really see this flourish. Till then I hold as it's already at rock bottom and most failure is priced in from the drastic drop from 17p a couple of weeks ago.
Thank you SpArmada. Much appreciated. Fingers crossed and we're likely to hear some news late this week unless they're ahead of the game.
Keep an eye out for the trades this week.
Remember, there are a lot of people and contractors involved in this project and the word goes around quick. Friday's book and trade behaviour was fishy (positively) so lets see what they have to tell us. Remember there is still chances for failure but if it was a disaster they would have plugged and abandoned it 2 weeks ago. You don't deploy this much resource on a offshore well if there's little chance of success.
Hi SpArmada,
Can you kindly check if there's any new images from either of the satellites?. Not to draw any conclusions but it would be nice to see.
If anyone else has access or the coordinates then please let me know.
Appreciate all the commentary and research on this BB. Much better than several other BBs.
Thanks
Hi SpArmada. Nobody is saying for sure that the water problems are fixed, but you would have expected them to have sorted it by now given the identification of the water producing zones and the fact that they haven't said all the zones are water producing after logging. The RNS was clear that they're isolating the water zones with straddle packers. If all 6 zones were water producing it would be plugged and abandoned as it's too costly to deploy the man power and kit for weeks on end. So the company (and advisors) are hopeful they have the resolution to isolate water which then should in return increase gas flow with the well not being weighted down.
Regarding the satellite images, all images being circulated on here or twitter are from the links you posted and they are very helpful indeed. Obviously there are many factors like altitude, filter used etc by the satellites but in general comparing the one from early jan to the one most recently posted, the thing on the right hand side (flare) does look more substantial.
It would be fantastic if you could continue to post these as they are informative and good for knowledge but as you say, they do not represent anything on the ground in real terms.
You post some good content so it would be great if you could continue to do so :)
SpArmada. The images in that tweet are basically both of the images you posted but side by side. One is from the link you posted on 13th Jan, one is from the link you posted today. Just looks like they have been zoomed in to to show the size or scale or whatever.
Can you compare the picture from 13th and today and let us know what you think.
Hi SpArmada. Could you share the link of the live satellite imagery website?. Great shot but I just want to check it out for myself if at all possible.
Available on barclays this morning. Bought and hold. Expecting this to go up circa 50% just on fundamentals alone.
Hi. Does anyone know why i can't buy these shares through barclays stockbroker? Never come across this before but i can't even find the company on thier list....
Blairpeach. You seem to be obsessed with HARL. You've been putting a negative spin on it for months. What's the agenda?. Clearly it's nothing constructive or informative. If you're holding shares then you should sell as you're obviously not content. If you're looking for a rock bottom low entry you've missed it. Just relax buddy and do your research. Things are coming together now and hopefully we will get the news we want to hear very soon.
Some stocks are a pump and dump by the usual traders but if you've done your research into H&W, looked at the recent press coverage and watched yesterdays parliament questions on the FSS contract, you will be amazed at how low this is trading. Everything out in public is currently signalling towards a Team Resolute bid. H&W are a massive stakeholder in that bid of £1.6 billion. Minister of Defence said it will be announced 'very very soon'. Some speculation it will be announced after the Nov 17th fiscal statement as they need these vessels, as well as surveillance vessels ASAP.
H&W have significant spare dock capacity and are best positioned to execute the contracts from a UK perspective. Yes, the other bidders can also execute the contract but the Govt is looking for value for money, delivery on time and who has the spare capacity now. Many other docks are currently filled with orders including the new Aircraft carrier.
At £12 market cap, this is frankly ridiculous. Order book is in the region of £100m and FY22 will close with £75m revenue and 22% margin. Once you get the higher value contracts through margins increase as gross overheads (site/rates etc) stay the same.
If and When they announce the contract for Team Resolute I genuinely expect this to be at many multiples of today. If Team UK are awarded the contract I still see this moving upwards as H&W are part of that consortium too. It really is a win win.
Gool luck all and lets get some good returns on our investments...
Many have become distracted by todays news on Islandmagee. Bottom line is that the Islandmagee gas storage will get the go ahead eventually as the gas crisis has changed the whole energy dynamics in Europe. The big prize for the company is the potential award for the FSS contract. This is a £1.6 billion contract. Looking at the info out there, the recent noise by MPs and the budget cuts etc, I will be very surprised if Team Resolute are not awarded this contract over the next few weeks. It's a huge deal for the UK and for HARL. The second runner up is Team UK, in which Harland have a fair share of work too so either way it's a win win situation. Priced at £10 million, an order book of £100 million, revenue of £75 million this year and tenders for several other contracts due throughout 2022/2023, this company is well placed for a significant rerate. The market disconnect is unbelievable and so is the current share price. Holding firm on this as it should be around £50 million.
Just cast your eyes over the sites they operate and you will understand the scale of the business. 2 of the biggest dry docks in Europe and ample capacity to take on work. They've just recently won a contract for £55 million to refurbish a royal navy hunting vessel.
Good RNS this morning. The fact we have a few suitors means that it's either 1) very cheap or 2) an attractive business opportunity.
I personally think it's a combination of both. It's not a good standalone business in my opinion but as an merger with an existing business its a prime candidate. Reduce the overheads, admin costs, warehouses and showrooms then all of a sudden even on the current figures it swings back into profit massively. This is why i reckon it will be a all share buyout.
Someone like cotswold company (back by venture capitalist), wayfair or dunelm can make a good return on acquiring the customer base and order book which is currently more than £50m plus stock of £43 million. There will be redundancies no doubt and its bad news for those in at IPO but anyone in at current levels should be rewarded handsomely.
Whoever wins the bidding war, they will be integrating Made.com into thier existing business saving upto £110 million a year on admin, overheads and marketing costs. This instantly makes it very profitable as the overheads are significantly reduced (shared offices/warehouses/staff etc) but it maintains the order book.
They won't bail it out unless they have a good Streamlining plan but it needs upto £60 for the next 18 months. Rather offer £40 and take it all and integrate into something already in place.
This will be a bidding war as the price is too cheap, order book strong, cash position decent and revenue is not to be ignored.
The second gas well, well A4, is to be brought online and introduced to the system shortly!!!!!
We know B2 has overdelivered so I'm expecting A4 to come on strong too.... Right place, Right time..
From yesterday's RNS
Ian Stalker clearly mentioned in his interview last week they are well funded and have not even touched the £10m raised 3 months ago. He specifically clarified that they're not going around with a begging bowl. Only thing they need is a little bit of time to see whats at Tai. The lack of research on here amazes me.
Second thing is it took exactly 7 days to get to 70m on Tai-1. They have to cement casing at 55m then proceed. They started drilling last week Thursday meaning they will most likely hit the 1st zone of 4-6 metres of Helium this Thursday. So likely RNS Friday or Monday.
This is only falling as we have a large holder dumping shares. This is normal as they all have their own targets. Once they've done this will see a sharp reversal to the 20p range.