Member Info for Sapi72

When it comes to next 1 month for SP, situation is not bad but much better:

- fleet is 239 instead of 218.

- grounded plane is 34 (14%) instead of 46 (21%)

- which means active planes are 205 vsus 172.

- fuel, fx better

Varadi is a clever guy. He put a lot off cost to last year's financials...plus Easter, etc. Q1 will be strong I suppose. Market could pay attention to cost only, that is the only weaker point now due to inefficiencies deriving from groundings. But I can imagine an announcement of a better landing of grounded planes due to new maintenance center of PW.

Pogo you treat market as stable in CEE the airport visitors are growing cca 15-20% per annum. See Budapest, Warsaw, etc visitors per year. Secondly the technical barriers are there to break through.:-) In short term I do not know how SP fluctuates but who cares. Varadi is far the best CEO among airlines. I trust in him.

Https://aviationweek.com/mro/aircraft-propulsion/eme-aero-grows-gtf-capacity-after-opening-second-test-cell

No, Pogo should remain. The main philosophical difference is that I seek for fundamentally undervakued investments, with temporary issues. And therefore I begin investing when the share is down and sentiment is negative. If the fundamentals recover and highlight with positive sentiments is back on, then share just should be kept until undervaluation disappears. The main difference vsus Pogo and some others that they prefers technical indicators, volume, big investors,etc. You can grab 10-20% with this method but not much higher. When sentiment is changing, noone recognizes first…it is enough if an analyst or an event or a takeover aspirant steps in. Sea Alstom SA.

Off course we can discuss valuation but less than half of people is interested…

The analysts seem to hardly understand sometimes the company. CASK will decrease significantly after inefficieny -grounded planes - evaporates. It is clearly said that dry leases for older planes were prolonged by 2-4 years. Obviously higher maintenance cost belong to this prolongation.

Analysts by the way are right by criticizing management about timely and sincere communication.

Guys, independently of any market reaction, the company is effective and Varadi filled up 20-25 new or returned planes with even increasing fleet utilization indicator. Off course RASK is also importand but we will see.

I do not think anyone who has short position is relaxed before any news coming from Wizz in July. Just a spark and the SP is above 1400. Spark is close knowing the plus planes (see flightradar) and Easther in April.

Pogo,

Simple maths: assume capacity utilization is stable (slightly increasing by the way), capacity grows due tonew planes and returned planes from engine issue, about 20% per year in the next 3 years. Overhead cost will not change so much, inefficency-related costs (paid lease for grounded planes, extra staff cost as they did not lay off staff) will disappear or will be normal working cost - ergo all the costs will hardly increase in the next 2-3 years or much less than capacity growth. Fuel is hedged and cheap. FX is hedged and beneficious. And what it will take out ? EUR 600-900 mio net profit per year. And I did not count Ucraine war finish which make ever easier to utilize extra capacity and increase ticket prices. They can now utilize inCentral Europe every new plane as people travel the third vsus western Europe, but it grows much. So please calculate!

The business model is intact, the new regulation has no impact on it. It is the same to increase ticket or non-ticket revenue.

The fear is overwhelmed though it is an airlines with 25% of the fleet on the ground last year and reached operational break-even. Applause! And Varadi purchased 10 planes in non-operating lease resigning 100 mio EUR profit last year. Yes, the concept is to finance the planes from credit after the credit ratings recover in 1-2 years.

This year will be much stronger, next year will be outstanding. The math is simple, Wizz will produce 8-10 EUR EPS in 2 years. BCaptain calculates well.

They do not carry just operating lease-related debt. Financial debt is minimum and the 2 billion EUR they have more than covers it. By the way why do jot they want to have trasury stock on this price?

Net debt went up, as our -- as did our leverage ratio, and that's driven by the continued growth of the fleet, especially now when we see the fleet deliveries starting to recover. And of course, the EBITDA dragged with the performance of the business. And therefore, that drove the ratio up. We would see that number coming down this year to somewhere closer to 3. That's our expectation for F -- for the end of F '26.

Wizz changes business model, they used JOLCO and financial lease instead of normal sales and lease back Which means 40% of new planes does not have gain in the beginning. But they can split depreciation better as they have to capitalize airplanes into balance sheet and there is no fix leasing period for depreciation therefore. This 80-100 m is missing from operational profit. And I think they collect cash and will continue financial leasing/sometimes purchasing in FY2026. As this gain will be missing and lower depreciation will not compensate it, that is the reason they do not give forecast I think. In 3-4 years they will be closer to Ryanair’s business model. We will see.

The question is in September in ordinary GM that any treasury stock purchase will be among points/decsisions. The market capitalization is the same as cash balance. And financial debt will be zero 2026 January. Other question is when Lufthansa/IAG decide to acquire on this price level or 20-30% higher even. Lufthansa' Eurowings has 10-20 years old airplanes (94 airplanes). They desperately need low cost airline even though they have 10% in Air Baltics and struggling with Italian carrier.

Thanks for your thoughs, Noto. By the way I think the one and only reason for short is the indebtedness. Analysts do not understand the capital-light business model and the related operative lease-related debts . The only way out of this and increase valuation if Ebitda is much higher and relative debt indicators improves. For this the chance is extremely good this year. More capacity, stronger EUR, lower oil price, etc. If Wizz is able to purchase own shares, from January I think after redeemed the last financial burdens (except lease-related ones), it will happen.

I do not understand why the analysts are not optimists...

- oil price at the bottom

- EUR/USD on the top

- interests are expected to be lower anywhere

- Eastern in April

- 10-15 airplanes are back from the grounded ones (see flight radar based on identification as Lucas wrote)

- capacity increases as well as new Xtra long range routes (and planes) are/will be there

- financial debt is going to be paid back fully in 9 months (2026 January)

- the sales and lease model is used in US, used by Lufthansa, etc, seems for me as reasonable as purchase but with less capital allocated

- no recession in Europe, and summer is coming..

- I think EPS estimations are very moderate for FY2026. seems to be significantly more than 2.7 per share.

- EBITDA should be high enough to have EBITDA/net debt less than 3 even in 2026, which makes possibility of treasury stock purchases (cash is overloaded by the way, will be constantly more than EUR 2 billion)

- and what about FY2027 with all the planes back and what about peace in Ukraine...

SP should be doubled, Bernstein has right.

And who will transport the cheap central-eastern-european workers to Germany? And back?…if Lufthansa also get some money, even a takeover could be in the pack. Plus oil plus fx plus Ukraine plus increased capacity, plus Arabic routes, etc.

Dávid, in 1 year the company will have only operating lease-related debt with EUR 2 billion cash. They can purchase themselves as the capitalization is so. They begin to buy treasury shares.

Without any peace deal. Peace is expected this year by the way.

If the monthly data will show 15% capacity increase then big increase! Remember to this in the next months.

Big jump is inevitable!

Big jumpis coming

Big jump in share price is coming, big increase is inevitable