Member Info for Sapi72

Concorde target price in 2023 was 30-35 when SP was 23.. That is what I wanted to say.

Wizzup,

I look for shares with temporary difficulties. At Wizz tenporary is longer than expected but still temporary…:) Concorde first proposed it at 23-24 GBP. I am Hungarian as well by the way.

Check Grenke leasigng, I think they are in the same shoes (temporary problems).

Earlier I had Kion, Societe Generale with good profit, I expected Novo to be good but it seems Lilly’s Mounjaro is a better product. So I sold it.

By the way the depreciation is the reason why Ryanair is able to show efficiency as they depreciate the owned planes over 20 years...which is the half of 8-12 years of leasing. And they also can sell them still to Africa/Asia after.

The question is whether Wizz' much younger fleet is efficient enough regarding seats/fuel consumption/real maintenance to offset the extra depreciation (compared to RYA). I suppose it is about the same.

Later if Wizz debt has investment grade and they can issue bond again to buy new planes, this difference will be eliminated.

But the difference deriving from cheap headquarter cost (Hungary) and cheaper cabin crew costs (CEE) will remain. All together it is hard to imagine that an Irish company can compete with a CEE company on (overhead) cost side...Wizz has a bright future.

And one more thing: after paying back the last financial debt (In January 2026) I am sure the treasury share purchase will be a topic in next AGM. For 100k (which is nothing compared to 2000k or more they will have) they can buy 7-8% of the shares on current SP.

Yeslam,

I tried to check accounting policy, which is on page 119-121 in last Annual report. I can not answer precisely to the questions but some aspect are there:

- if the maintenance is based on contractual liability, they have to put it to yearly depreciation. (So this will not have a peak in the last year). The leasing period is 8-12 years by the way.

- according to IFRS 16, the sum (NPV) of discounted operative leases (all years) as rights-of-use and the the related liability are in balance sheet

- this right-of-use and the liability is split according to the leasing period (8-12 years), and if they pay more in a specific year (which is sure due to discounting), the difference is financial cost (interest paid)

- I suppose the CASK is high because the total operational cost (including the depreciation of right-of-use of grounded planes) is split by the operating planes's divider (available seat km)

- theoretically they could stop depreciation of right-of-use of the grounded plane saying the depreciation is not split on years equally but kilometers (usage) but in this case the right-of-use value would only split to less years (later) and would distort the depreciation later (too high)

So the CASK is distorted now for sure, it is answer to the second question.

Maintenance - I suppose they "overused"( ie. used more than determined in the leasing contract when there was/is shortage of working planes) some planes and will have additional maintenance cost at the end. It is normal for leased cars in example. It can adjust the residual value which is the approximate value at the end of the lease. So either it is plus maintenance to restore the contracted quality of planes at the end or absorb the reduction of residual value from overuse...but these are assumptions only.

Anyway I would encourage them to present adjusted EBITDA and other indicators without grounding impact, also wrote to investor relations. I suppose it would be a good direction, perhaps if more of us ask them to do this it will be heard.

Yeslam, I am CPA, go ahead with IFRS 16.

My tip is for 14 Nov. For Y/E I would say 1500.

I suppose they learn how to present the q3 figures. If the grounding impact is separated and adjusted EBITDA is described that would be enough…some better news on engines would be a catalyst as well.

My tip is 1235.

Gary,

The will not refinance 500 mio bond just pay back. As the further debt is net present value if operative lease costs, which will due simultaneously with usage (and revenue) they cannot pay more back earlier. Perhaps There are some planes which is not in operative lease but mixed financing, probably they can purchase those aircrafts from free cash flow.

By the way as soon as EBITDA increases to high enough, they will purchase aircrafts instead of renting them ( op. lease is renting more or less) and issue bonds with investment grade ratings.

With this operative leasing they have far the youngest and most efficient and environmentally friendly fleet by the way among all major European carriers. The Wizz fleet is about 4-5 age on average, all the others are above 10 years incl. Ryanair.

Financial debt is 500 mio GBP.

All the others are the net value of future operative lease cost.

Guys,

It is so strange…if any friend of yours tells you in real life ( not in stock exchange) that you can have an investment, for bargain price, whose market value is low but after getting through its temporary difficulties in 2 years it will produce 5x bigger profit than now, 9 from 10 run to participate.

Now we are in the stock exchange and face similar case just couple of analyst see only next 3 months instead of more quarters, and computers trade lower and lower checking technical charts and only 1 from 10 people think immediate investment…

Good thing that the same computers will buy it when technical indicators (and analysts) change.

The company has more than EUR 2 billion cash, last financial debt will disappear in January.

What do you want the company to save from? It does not have to be saved at all. Share price will recover when first spark of business recovery is seen.

From EX Abu Dhabi planes some are flying between Oct and New Year, 1 is reregistered.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airlines-lessors/wizz-air-revives-abu-dhabi-routes-weeks-after-shutting-jv

I suppose the reason why shorters are brave is the fresh news about dismantling not so old planes for GTF engine…but RTX (P&W) Q4 GTF engine production will be 30-40% more than previous quarters…we will see. Plus Varadi must have very good relationship with RTX and Airbus.

By the way every vector points to accelerated maintanance and shorter/shortened grounding time. More engine, MTU capacity etc.

Interesting…even less airplane remains…

https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2025/10/21/new-airbus-jets-are-getting-scrapped-for-parts/

It looks like Q4 will be hyperstrong for P&W…about 300-350 engines being produced.

https://www.flightglobal.com/engines/pratt-and-whitney-aims-for-8-10-gtf-production-increase-in-2025/164986.article

Guys,

The main difference is again the investment horizon. If a share will increase 300-400% in 2-3 years, it is an outstanding opportunity. I search for such possibilities, earlier it was Kion, Societe Generale and other European banks, Alstom, Scor. The common feature of these shares is a temporary problem which will be overcome in the foreseeable future threfore it is worth investing on cheap prices and sit on it 1-2-3 years. So I agree with Captain, and instead of chasing 10-15% in couple of days/weeks I would stick and hold good quality shares, which are deeply undervalued like Wizz.

If you need one more current share with this feature please check Grenke AG.

Wishing big profit to everyone!

If someone is curious, has more time and patience, from two sites namely flightradar and plainspotters, it is identifiable the full fleet and status (active or standing). I.e. I found HA-LDC is reregistered on 15 Oct from Abu Dhabi (old reg A6-WZA). As the fleet is 240-245 planes it is pretty time-consuming…

Https://aviationweek.com/mro/aircraft-propulsion/pratt-cautiously-optimistic-gtf-mro-outlook

Johnbree,

the share price moves only short term on believe, and the faith is crucial longer term for the management only. In long term share valuation is simply mathematic not belief.

By the way it would reach 40-50 if not taken over earlier for 30-35.

To have a spark for rocketing it is enough if Wizz present grounding separately in financial report. On the other hand if next summer is with 25 planes grounded that would be 10% then. Not 20-25%. So every aspect points to high increase in SP in the coming months.

Guys, the difference is the investment horizon. By the way obviously the share will jump for the first spark, in 6 months or so.

The most profitable thing is buying deeply undervalued shares which has temporary problems and good management. Like Novo Nordisk now, earlier European banks, Alstom, Kion. Though we have to wait for changing sentiment by the analyst (who foresee 6 months usually, not more), the gain is normally more than 100%.