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This is now 50% of my core holding. I'm expecting this to rerate rapidly- in the past I've made the mistake of waiting for the update only to realise the expected was already priced in ,and I was late. Debt was the biggest worry and Rahul has done a good job
A bit more imagination and earlier rns's with updates would be welcome, but equally welcome is the straight bat.
I do not think the opportunity to buy in the 50s will exist in the near future, unless a new variant appears of course
The last time short positions were this low was august 2019. When it went from 200 to 250 in a matter of days.
In and looking forward to this months statement. The institutional investors pay attention to forecasters, so i think 65p will arrive in short order and once further debt plans are shown back over a pound in short order
I've got tlw too now. Good rise there
This will follow v soon.
Just to say, the merger will have been discussed for months- most likely when levels were 60p plus.
So lock me in, I'm happy to wait
As its a reverse takeover, its the easiest route to market but it does mean shareholder vote and dissent is given more1 credence.
Am I, or anyone, happy with 20p? Absolutely not, so to get my vote give us a semblance of fair value. Looking forward to the prospectus
Nov 30 (Reuters) – OPEC members have reached a consensus on extending the existing oil cuts by the OPEC+ group that amount to 7.7 million barrel per day oil by three months from January, Algeria's energy minister said on Monday.
Abdelmadjid Attar, whose country holds OPEC's rotating presidency, said OPEC would work to convince other members in the OPEC+ alliance at their meeting on Tuesday to back that policy for an extension, Algeria's state news agency APS reported.
(Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by Edmund Blair) ((Ahmad.Ghaddar@thomsonreuters.com; +442075424435; Reuters Messaging: ahmad.ghaddar.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)
I do a mix of buying stock and also spread. Spreads show via IG 78% buys in last 1hr. This is a coiled spring!
All being well, this and all oilies are going to soar. Having such large short interest will amplify this increase as they close
From my understanding they've failed before- and by larger margins. With much more pessimistic views on oil prices
So imho this is already in the bag.
But not yet priced in
Once priced in a pound very quickly
A fantastic piece of analysis, it shows the actual true drop in shorting
I'd strongly suggest a sign up, its very useful. And analyst opinions there, both known and institutional as well as some anonymous.
Macro picture here will lift oil tomorrow but I'm adding tomorrow early. I regret being so busy 4pm fri
Looking at the images of whats occurred, it sends shivers. As we come out of pandemic are we heading to world war 3. That single event will have such a big effect on relations, opec and the departing us administration.
In terms of oil, I think it cemented what we were expecting opec to do. But I worry as many of us do, how many civilians are ultimately going to pay the price
I'm afraid it comes across, in my humble opinion bt, that you're trying to talk the sp down.
Everything you said is true- 6 months ago.
The vaccines , plural , are being manufactured as we speak. Plans are underway for giving both nhs staff and all housebound,nursing homes by middle dec. This was the reason we are all being careful since march- that removes alot of trepidation over transmitting to the elderly or sick.
So in real terms by jan, life will be transitioning to normal
There will still be pockets, but as the mass campaign gathers pace, that'll be dealt with
As i said 6months behind. Oil is not surging- its just approaching our previous normality. And for tullow thats a pound plus, especially as they have one single rbl issue left jan. Which they can already appease , but have assets anyway. Its leaner, has a strategy and based its prices on crude predictive very conservatively
What no deal brexit? Its not in the media- the rumour is deals done and will be announced on a day for max impact and christmas cheer.
So big drivers awaited here- vaccine (within days), brexit deal (days), opec (days)=pullback over last 3d now continue ascent imho
Follow the trades- sell off in am with aplwtotw for buying during day to almost start price. Actually bucked market, before fri pm fears kick in from pi
Also interesting how the UT trade=1 million pounds, same as the short size that opened fri lol
I'm expecting crude 46 to 47 plus mon, dow and ftse blue, and so will this be
I was in pmo very recently- but here now as although both have a more secure future , tlw remain their own masters.
At crude 60, how long before debt is actually paid off. For once we have a leader who is interested and talks about the debt elephant in the room
50p by Christmas, before with 3 sparks as above
A poster below highlighted the next blast off in sentiment, sending this up- brexit. This is imminent and will be a nice jump for uk ftse,as well as the world
If deadlock was ongoing, you'd be hearing about it all the time via selected media- effectively "we're trying but europe won't be fair"
You're not hearing this- as its already done
Vaccine- its imminent to drop any week from 1st dec, mhra pending
Cohorts initially will be the elderly, housebound and nursing homes. Then 50s with co morbidities, then everyone else
This was always about protecting the most vulnerable- and they will be vaccinated by Christmas
Given its hedged prices supercoop , how is this in the short term an oil price play
Short term its fundamentals prove it can pay down debt without ri
Stay independent through all the commotion and look to new sites when prices improve
Don't forget also comments about billions for cash floe to return to shareholders- dividends.
So its fantastic for me..reduced costs, strengthening oil price, a 10y future strategic plan.
At 30p? With shorts closing, since 25th too
Great buy
Yesterday's pullback was very strong
Surprisingly so given the market state at the time.
It was not pi buying. Either short/s closing or ii buying.
This is expected to transition to 50p and soon in my opinion based on its data- its been shown also as a viable going concern- and a reverse takeover like pmo is still possible. Although not needed.
The removal of RI threat- fantastic
Post deal this is currently well under valued.
And its not caught up with its similar oilies
4b is the tax relief alone
Couple the fact harbour cannot sell for 1 year as you'll see from prospectus, its now got a future
Dividends- did anyone consider that as a possibility pre chrysaor presence?
Debt interest alone over 5 years would have been over 1.7b. Debt is largely cancelled- pmo was existing to service its debt before
The deal is fab. And its in arcm , harbour et al to have a high sp. Don't forget arcm are to be paid in shares too.
40p by prospectus
Nm
30p plus by end of thur
Perfect storm playing out
22p already