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As it failed to break out above yesterday a drop was possible
But if proven to rise into the pm, 4th occasion of same. Mopping up the shares from scared pi’s
There is a floor underneath which is steadily coming up and it’s not in the 40s in my opinion
Look at the graph and volumes, 1h 4h and 1 day charts
Bounce and bounce hard
And new update will boost this fast and they’re due as already drilling
Rns re drilling if price sensitive has to be declared not wait for March
Advfn xj made a great point 150m extra ash flow WITHOUT the 75m total
So
J, the statement shows it's not just a going concern, but a working strategy to get debt down - and quickly
50s doesnt even reflect that- that's why 60s and onwards is coming up fast
The previous price encompassed risk it could all be a failure
That has been properly demonstrated to be not our future- derisked growth is ours.
So the sp will move to reflect the same
My previous post showed the extra bopd not within forecast, as I guess it isn't physical - yet. So some gameship to allow it to be unhedged which is fantastic.
So you have
- derisked core income , even if covid hits again
- unhedged extra oil coming from multiple rigs
- big money being actively spent to maximise current output- over and above hedged forecast
A sniff of kenya news and we would inc by 25p I'd guess immediately. I know kenya has been talked about for ages but the prices motivate the minds of politicians
Look at the 1hr and 4hr charts.
The run up to 61p was a deviation above and we came back to the line decisively
62p feb start .
Expecting to have some holding rns very soon.
And news of output from the new unhedged wells...
Share movement will occur way before that
Conversations occur, pi’s are always the very last to know
Analysts will get it
Today’s statement is the official one- meaning updates to forecast going forward makes no difference to hedge as the figure of 45k is locked in
Rahul is a clever guy- the statement requires a few reads
How with 4 wells this year, plus all the extra investment and tech does output not really move in the statement
Answer is due to the deal with debt keepers, the requirements to hedge the output
“75% of FORECAST OIL”
Forecast. So that’s circa 45k bopd. But read the statement, 4 wells jubilee extra, new additional output from operators adding 10. He has even commented on jubilee being down but measures to improve it are already ongoing
It’s a promise of under delivery re hedge forecast vs the nuggets he has put in , which could be another 40k on top unhedged
This statement was one to keep debt guys happy and provide the Easter eggs for us
Oily, you mentioned pictet buying bonds and hedging
My own suspicion is they bought the shares this am at open and dumped them hence the rise of 4p or so. The base is in and solid with big upside
I don’t care about the obsession with the enq guys on hedged volume
That needs to be looked at in context- it is a core amount. The new work will produce extra substantial amounts- it says so right there but no figures given
Strong buy
The officials were in kenya 2 weeks ago- the application was in in dec, having been revised to the upside and more efficient. The eco assessments and others were already previously submitted
Kenya desperately want the fields running and will make sure it happens asap. Especially with oil so high
And tullow have partners in it with total and africa oil- they may not need an external partner. We certainly have the neccessary share in the bank...
Expecting kenya news imminently
Unhedged for those of you obsessing lol
As the investment continues to maximise our current production, I can't see anything which dictates that the new oil is hedged
Ie all oil over and above?40k is free of hedge
So in RD and our best interests to maximise production. I think he's been overly conservative as the new well is substantially going to increase volume and at market value too
Its safer for institutional investors.
Enq has real issues. Is magnus online?
If an issue you will absolutely tank
Tlw has done what's needed to secure its base and survival. And upside,especially kenya, is massive. And at this time unhedged
Gambling for high stakes and risk is not what institutions generally buy into. So the difference between tlw and enq is important. Tlw will pay its debt down, and survive even if oil prices collapse.
Private investors are only a small part of this share
The moaning about not enough risk taken- that's geared for institutional investors.
This is now derisked and the big money will come in. It has a clear debt plan, and as II come in we benefit from the rise in sp.
150 mill extra cash =10p per share. Extra.
The sp is manipulated down, and pi's were spooked 3 times this week- and those shares are now in the pockets of savvy investors.
Finally the hedging- there is every chance of a 3rd and ongoing waves of covid as new variants appear. This is derisked for institutional investment who know what the floor for this is
And it will not only survive but prosper.
Onwards and upwards
Depends on how solid we expect the statement to be. I see it as consolidation of the business plan, a solid company that has shaken off it's skeletons leading to a sub 30p share price where once 250.
Debt reduction being proven, institutional investors can safely move in to a bigger extent than now.
So to what extent shorts close?
If tomorrow and wed especially are blue days ie today was macro oversold, I think anyone shorting has the real risk of having to buy to cover their shares at 50% plus today's price.
And 3 entities hold more than 0.5% short stock- when one starts cover, its calamity for the other 2 so I would love a short squeeze
You say the inc from 50 to 60. The resistance is small
So in essence
If tomorrow macro shows todays red everywhere was overdone, its a really good run up to wed.
A springboard at 58p , when I woke up, would have been preferable but hey ho
What a day, the macro didn't help at all, hopefully some semblance of normality tomorrow.
The background events were taken advantage of- pictet increased by 0.03%; in context that's only 410k shares, 200k odd pounds. Compounded by herd mentality, big drop.
You could see the automated packets of shares triggering the drops. And see the PI's following suit.
The increase last week was large open trades- so the institutional investors are present in my opinion
What news wed- if there's an announcement on kenya within the 7am rns accompany this, and data for institutional investors to act on ie pile in, this is very risky to short. As if it does rocket the opportunity to close shorts below xxxp disappears, hopefully for the foreseeable
Brent now 8550, 110 higher than today's low
Personally- expecting to see shorts close tomorrow early, and that cover along with pi piling back in, 60p and higher.
If I'm wrong then nothing makes sense to me and I need to give this game up
I see today as setting up a platform to close shorts tomorrow
The fundamentals of tullow are now infinitely better than 2 years ago- the spending of capex on bettering productivity rather than speculation is well received.
Wall st analysis is an interesting piece if anyone has a look. Some of it is a bit speculative but based on known current data they have npv at 58p
But. Crude at 70 yields an additional 50mill. At 80 or 90, what does that equate to, net of taxes etc
Plus the big tax write down to carry forward i assume
66% institutional investors- and once this critical statement is out expecting that to jump sharply
I personally expect 120. But if they reveal kenyan deal done with partners, 200 plus easily achieved. And quickly
Expect shorts to close this week , looking forward to the open. Gl all, many fortunes to be made here. PE 5, wow
Previous poster is right in my opinion, there is loading up. Shorters also work with those loading up to give a good entry point
Expecting the volume to continue to increase
Oil 100 a barrel is expectation now. 550mill bottom line increase, and if 2 years would put net debt at 650mill
Wow
Hi Slift
What about this from their site
"We were due to end 2021 with 85K BOPD from Jubilee, has this been achieved?
A. Yes. Further guidance will be provided in the January Trading Statement.
"
Either way, for myself I'm seeing a more balanced company formed, maximising assets but still with a big piece of kenya oil coming. The recent dignitary visit was to lead to a mou, i wonder when we hear re this
https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/kenya-government-sizes-up-development-plan-for-3-4bn-oil-project/2-1-1146391
Specifically mentions tullow submitted plans
Will try to get the article
Last time this was at 3% short it ran to 66p
Oil price higher,debt lower, resource larger. The current sp is artificially kept here while short interest reduces. The serial 900 sells are my suspicion amongst other trades, especially automated
60s are no where near where it should be. We're conditioned into accepting scraps at the mo, which will change.
Once the trading update clicks debt as fully mananaged hedged and sustainable- the institution buying starts in earnest. Thats the journey I'm excited about
Gl all holders
Ps if there's an extra 50 mill due to oil prices, ie 150 mill free cash flow, that 50 mill extra would give a 3p dividend..
If they so chose of course