Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The RNS of the 13th Dec 2022 states
“NOTICE OF CANCELLATION OF ADMISSION TO TRADING ON AIM
Following a Reverse Takeover the following securities have been cancelled from trading on AIM with effect from the time and date of this notice.”
Surely the only meaning to the word cancellation in todays RNS is what they say which is that they are extending the cancellation of trading on AIM until Feb 1st. I don’t see it can be interpreted as cancelling the reverse takeover or delisting the shares.
ADV were suspended from 17Dec to 31st March, if SAVE run to a similar time scale then 3 and a bit months would mean we should hear something around mid September.
Couple of references to M&A in the role description
The day-to-day work will vary depending on the business’ priorities and will include:
· Assist in project execution for strategic projects to meet commercial objectives, including support work for negotiations with third parties.
· Supporting M&A activity, including due diligence, analysis, maintenance of project plans and post transaction integration.
· Preparation, analysis and presentation of economics/valuations for potential corporate and asset acquisitions/divestment as well as capital expenditure project decision making.
· Preparing presentations and reports for Board and Exco.
· Supporting the identification of business development opportunities, using technical and economic evaluation and investment appraisal processes.
· Preparing and monitoring project/M&A timetables ensuring on-time delivery.
· Maintain deal tracker and CRM tools.
· Regular interaction with other business segments, including technical, finance and operations.
· Support in the management of group’s debt facilities, ensuring an optimum group capital structure.
· Preparing documentation for lenders such as information memorandums, quarterly update packs and other ad-hoc requests.
· Support analysis and implementation of hedging strategies.
· Peer group analysis.
· Involvement in meetings with lenders/banks.
Excellent article Zengas, thanks, Nigeria exports electricity to Togo, Niger and Benin
https://africa-energy-portal.org/news/togo-niger-benin-remit-n204-billion-nigeria-power-supply
With 996 m shares in issue a £12 million dividend, as was suggested is 1.2p per share so for 500k shares that’s £6000 and if you have your shares in an ISA that dividend is tax free. It’s not inconceivable that as earning increase then so will the dividend such that SAVE could be generating in excess of £10,000 of tax free income per year for a number of investors here. It’s time to make sure you transfer as many shares into an ISA as possible and top up while these are in single figures.
I don’t see that ministerial sign off is the issue as I don’t see how he can sign off a deal until all parts are completed and from the RNS we know all parts of the Seven Energy Deal are not signed off hence the ongoing work streams. So surely if the deal succeeds we should first see an RNS saying all components of the transaction completed prior to getting ministerial sign off. I think Zengas alluded to this a few weeks back. Lets not worry about who the minister is until SAVP announce there is a deal for the minister to sign.
So I think we all know that tomorrow we won’t get an RNS saying deal completed and signed off my the minister as that would need to be announced immediately and not held until the end of quarter. Best outcome is that one or two more components of the deal are completed and it seems that they don’t need to RNS that news immediately as the UERL deal completion was announced at the end of May with the results RNS. Maybe this time they will give no timeline guidance for completion of the deal but just say announcements will be made in due course.
OK, call me cynical but there are quite a few groups that will benefit from having the share price as low as possible when you read the RNS regards notice of GM. Example being $27.7 million to certain holders of the SSNs and certain parties that have agreed to underwrite the issue of ordinary shares, lower the share price the more shares they get, now of course i am not suggesting anyone would do anything illegal because we all know that really doesn't happen in the financial markets, isn't that right !
So when you read this bit from the BBC site "To be declared the winner, a candidate needs a majority of votes cast, and at least 25% of the votes in 24 or more of the 36 states"it would appear that you could win without winning the majority of states, you could have a majority of the votes cast but still win fewer states than the opposition, the 25% of votes in 24 states shouldn't be a problem for either main parties as its pretty much a two horse race.
Off topic so my last comment on this but the only shameful thing is the behaviour of our ministers in putting ordinary folks jobs at risk, Cameron has admitted he has sold exclusive rights to his Brexit story, Rees Mog is happy with his Russian investments and Boris well his behaviors throughout the last few years is shameful beyond comparison..... Not that I can defend the behaviors of Labour either anyway I don't want to stir this national divide any more than the grenade I threw in earlier. Oh yeah, and the fishing industry is the same size as the UK biscuit industry and 39 bn is small chips compared the the long term damage that Brexit will do to the UK as well laid out by every independent financial analysis.
Huuumh, let's think about that so our ministers decided to give the general public who have little or no understanding of economics a choice to leave the worlds largest trade alliance and then spent two years effing up a deal so that we are now weeks away from exiting with no deal in sight and one third, yes one third of companies considering leaving the UK. They are now trying to renegotiate something they have been told many times won't be changed. I think on current form I would happily see Nigerian ministers sitting around the table at number 10 because they couldn't possibly mess things up any more.
I am not trying to defend the companies hash of the timelines but completion of the deal has not been delayed according to this RNS, still on for the end of the year. Will they push it into 2019 is the question now but the wording in this RNS does not announce a delay for deal closure.
I fully understand folk wanting to risk mitigate, If only I had done that on so many occasions in the past and its a really hard job to defend SAVP's track record on the timing of the RTO, trust in the timeline guidance is shot to bits. But I read on occasion that people think the deal was due to close at the end of October when all they currently saying is they anticipate the implementation agreement in place then and closure before 31st Dec. so in plain English they are hopeful that they will have an agreement on how to close the deal by the end of October. Well that has a good deal of wriggle room in it and it looks like they need it.
From the last transaction update RNS
"As per the announcement on 20 September 2018, the Company continues to anticipate that the Implementation Agreement will be executed by the interested parties by the end of October 2018. Savannah therefore continues to expect the Transaction, including the Ministerial Consent process, to complete during Q4 2018."
You could argue that introducing a partner for Niger drilling would be tricky when you are making an oil discovery every month, how would you agree the value of a partner's share when it would change between verbal agreement and contracts being drawn up ? Funny how drilling stopped a short time after those articles saying that SAVP were talking to potential Indian / Chinese partners. Could be just coincidence but then again ..................
The price a partner will have to pay to buy in just went up :-)
Not used it before but very straight forward but note you pay for all shares requested and then will be refunded within 5 days if you don't get your full allocation.
With so much data available from nearby discoveries I think SAVP will have a pretty good idea of what 33 feet of oil bearing sandstone reservoir can do.
Well done SAVP, I think we should prepare for a series of such updates over the next few months, the historic success rate suggests plenty more to come.
OK, bear with me on this one, there's nothing on TV so got to wondering what the flow rate on that Z21 video was. i don't know about your kitchen taps but mine flows a lot less fast than that well head was spewing. My tap runs at 3.6 gallons a minute, Google has a typical run rate of 3 gallons a minute but for my flow rate that converts to 5184 gallons a day or 123 barrels per day. So for the Z21 blowout flow to be 500 bopd it would have to be running at about the rate of 4 kitchen taps which seems pretty feasible to me. Of course there is the question of will they get it cleaned out and on production and if they do then how sustainable it will be but i can't answer those questions with a kitchen experiment !!
Two bad RNS's in a row was bound to hurt, small market cap companies like this are volatile so we can be sure if they can reach 1000 bopd then the market cap won't be �10m, they will whip the price up smartish. The next Q results should be much better with a 40% increase in production at 350 rather than 250bopd and a significant increase in $ per barrel. Any sort of uplift in production from Z21, even 75 bopd will boost income. This field has produced 15,000 bopd in the past, it's just a question of the time scale and cost of getting to 1000 bopd as Mike Palmer has done it before in country and the kit he needs is slowly building up.