RE: Short Reduce!15 Jul 2022 14:28
Agreed. My view is that Wizz are simply suffering from the short positions and general market malaise. The underlying business is one of the best short haul cos. Good balance sheet and mgmt.
The weekly chart is the most oversold it has been since covid march 2020 when planes were grounded. I don't see the current situation as anywhere near as bad as planes not actually flying. Therefore to me this looks very overdone and the SP is due a rally, which is what I am waiting for.
You only have to look at Sandbar to see this is a concerted effort to make a sector wide trade and actually though it has worked well, it is looking like they are struggling to make headway now. You may also note that they are a pair trading outfit, who has ramped their position up at the lows which suggests to me they are aiming to shake out shares before going long - recent volatility is also a clue to this.
Even with a small downgrade, JPM still value wizz at £40 per share, which I think is actually a little high given current oil prices, but for me the company should be trading around £25-28 with a view to going to £30-40 when oil passes below $93-5.
The industry is in a far better place than 2020 and I think to drive share prices to those levels is farcical. But that's the current markets - it's the insidious side of the markets and how wealth transfer happens!