Member Info for Sanchez599

Nice bounce from the pullback to 362.

Motley Fool are clueless.

Quite a few Aim miners dropped today. Just FYI.. the market as a whole is only marginally above yearly lows at present. I think a lot are taking capital off the table at the moment.

Always someone who takes pleasure in share prices falling and seeing others holdings lose value. The very worst part of AIM.

Usual AIM - couple of sellers catch the rise, they precipitate more sellers who then sell at a loss after missing the rise though after the event they don't really know why they sold other than 'because someone they like on Twitter has'.

And a pretty poor reaction. People selling at 4.2, a lower bid than most of the days previous against what is clearly good news.

Aim to a tee.

Also 200 is a big psych level hence the fact it isn't crashing through, but it is in no-mans land as far as key trend lines go so I suspect it will be breached.

I suspect so. It may need to consolidate whilst markets are struggling. MKS has had a storming year, it hasn't all suddenly gone wrong for the co. If you are of a long term bent, think about when the best time to build a stake is? When the share is flying and at all time highs, or when it has a huge discount due to macro factors.

Obviously no one has a crystal ball but I would say the chart above has shown pretty much every top and bottom. It's not one I have traded before, but I drew this up so I had a roadmap of when to buy and sell as I plan to start a position this year.

The gap is filled at 194. The support level is at 189 and the 200dma is at 185. Lots of reasons for it to be supported around those levels.

https://twitter.com/Sanch3z599/status/1490688837030494212?s=20&t=nvh_t13vZ1TY_uQgQTrnHg

Updated for today, Look at how the SP has tracked the channels for months and months. Now its broken down through the 220 level, the next one is around 189-194. Just above the 200dma, where it looks like it will try and bounce.

Buys vs sells level today. More buys vs sells Friday. SP down 5%.

Anyone who thinks they can say a timescale with absolute conviction is lying. It's more about watching for signs - breakouts against recent highs, cup and handle patterns and higher lows, along with volume coming in at lows buying up the discount.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/stock-cycle-trend-price.asp

(try buying that many during a rerate)

Have a look at PodP. It's basically the same story as DT. Big (albeit less) rise, back to IPO price when times are tough. There is nothing remotely sinister about the current SP, it is simply just the cyclical fact that money isn't here at present. And that KKR buy if you think about it, is during weakness after q big retrace during.... Stage 1 - accumulation.

Savvy? I think so.

Lastly, I would say look at what has done well in the FTSE recently. It's low PE asset rich stocks such as energy and commodities. High PE unprofitable growth shares have performed badly. The UK is awful at supporting those kinds of stories at the best of times as they are so speculative, but resultant effect is that shares -like DT- are now trading at significant discounts to highs, whereas many that have done well have now seen ath's or yearly highs.

One thing Brits like more than perceived value, is sales.

That's not to say the year as a whole doesn't get worse before it gets better. But the scales will tip back - for example, if you were looking for short candidates, is it DT after a 60% fall or an O&G firm that has had a 100% + rise, when Brent starts to fade.

Worth noting Dark's retrace was 65%, nicely nestled between the 50-80% levels.

It's why people should be very cautious buying pullbacks from shares that have seen double or triple tops after long runs up. It can always, always go lower and you are always swimming against the tide as the moving averages point downwards.

Dark's are starting to level out now which is exactly why this is stage one and not a continuing of stage 4. It's also why the recovery won't be overnight. For aproper recovery DT needs a proper base and to reclaim key moving averages that will bring both investors and technical traders in.

The same also works in reverse, once the trend is upward, it's much, more difficult to stop.

The market makers will always act defensively in times like this. They won't shoot the price up for fear of being left holding the baby when they will inevitably meet overhead supply. Ultimately it makes no difference whether the price starts with a 4,6 or 8 to them, they just want churn and volume. The reason stage ones like this occur is that it is where stale bulls and exhausted holders sell, usually after holding through the entirety of a downtrend but then not seeing a strong bounce, meeting those looking forward to the next rotation and seeing a recovery play. As the sell volume dries up the balance between supply and demand on the scales shifts and that precipitates the next move, one that also allows market makers to sell shares they have accumulated at low levels at a decent profit.

You could argue that as much as sectors like O&G are flying, much of their rise is now done. The savvy will be taking profits and those who have been cautious will be jumping in at the top.

For any Minervini supporters out there, the 80:50 rule is fully in play with DT.

'When a secular leader makes a major top, there's a 50% chance it will drop 80% and an 80% chance it will drop 50%.'

This is being seen in all the covid success stories from Peloton to LFT firms, tech like FUTR and DARK all having their stage 4, even Meta.

The market makers will 100% want the price to go to move to areas of greater volume, that's why it got pulled back during these macro conditions. Technically DT's big fall is at the end of a stage 4 decline, having lived the lifecycle of a 1-4 pattern in a very short period. It is now in a stage one accumulation phase so the downside isn't huge, and it will move within a range (barring market hiccups), until serious buying volume comes back or accumulation starts to be significant.

The choice investors have is waiting it out or trading the ranges. There's every chance that as sectors rotate cyber becomes more popular again (it's a big theme given the state of the world) and Dark repeats much of its journey of last year. Sentiment is powerful - don't underestimate what can happen to the SP value once it takes hold and stage 2 begins again. It's always a bit bleak, until it suddenly isn't...

If anyone's interested have a look at this price roadmap I drew last year and have been updating. The levels that MKS hits are actually quite predictable. All about where the algos kick in. Watch 189-194 for a bounce and gap fill.

https://twitter.com/Sanch3z599/status/1489600779187105792?s=20&t=z-PGbLebv7oYskVL4qK5Uw

Because of the current situation with tech shares, interest rates, US markets, general low vol Friday trading, and inflation. People are holding back from shares like Dark at present on favour of more asset rich shares such as commodities / O&G etc. Hence the fall which I did say was probably coming. Hopefully some took advantage.

Ironically it's a very good opp to buy for the long term because money will come back into Dark, of that I am certain.

Have a look across AIM it happened on a few shares at exactly the same time. Check out Acp 1.6m dumped at the same moment. Must be linked to a large margin call