Member Info for RyeSloan

Looks like we will close on a new post sterling conversion high...gradual creep creep has taken us to 80p. Probably a month or so to full year results so hoping this uptrend continues before then. Will be interesting to see if we have finally got the DW fiasco out of the way in terms of the accounts and if we get a continuing picture of volume increase and associated margin benefits. Everything might finally be pointing in the right direction now...if so we could see a good re-rate to the SP but with AXS that's far from certain that's for sure!

Good question Jolly and I suppose only AXS know the answer at this point tho. I would however hazard a guess that the 'chemical group' are potentially more interested and have deeper pockets for this type of JV than Ineos had (or wanted to have)....personally I like the sound of this and it fits nicely with my blue sky thinking that AXS will be bought out by a major player at some point..a large chemical group would be just the type of buyer that I envisaged ;/)

Neil has sounded very upbeat since the results...the market obviously less so and I appreciate the CEO should sound positive but none the less he appears very confident we will see a substantial upturn in earnings in 2015. I continue to think Alk is substantially under valued and has positioned itself very astutely in the UK energy market so while the SP performance has been rather depressing I wouldn't be selling at this price (and in fact the directors buys would suggest just the opposite!)

Solid if unspectacular results as expected however good to hear the confidence regarding H2 and Q1 strength. Also good to see the prices secured for the majority of 2015 output....I'm at a loss to explain why Alk is trading on a historic p/e of 8...even lower for a forward p/e if you take H2 as the benchmark for earnings for 2015. Company seems well positioned in the market and for any uplift in sentiment on shale etc...add in a small but important continuation of the policy to increase the div this looks a well run company that simply isn't being priced appropriately by the market. Time to pop these in the bottom drawer and wait for the true value to be realised, happy to hold as there does not (to me at least!) seem to be much downside risk from here.

Thanks Dan....I saw the strike price so assumed they would look to convert...do we know how often that conversion takes place? Is it a monthly thing and if so for how much? Assuming when you say it is all in the SP anyway that the shares in issue has already taken account of the potential for the loan to be converted? Sorry I know he answers will be somewhere and I grasp the basics of a convertible loan I'm just curious to understand how much is left to be converted and when that might happen...so of you know what report or RNS they are in I'll go look myself! That said Hendersons do not currently look like they are selling these into the market so they must be happy to hold and increase their exposure, I wonder how long that might be the case as if they change their mind their is one hell of a share overhang that could depress the SP forever!

The Hendersons holding increase was the result of the convertible loan stock arrangement...are we to assume that their conversion to shares is a good sign or is it just 'expected' that they will convert the loan into stock? I've had a quick look at the interims but here seems to be no detail on this arrangement...does anyone have a handle on our deal with Hendersons or do I have to trawl the previous accounts to get my head around this? ;-) Hoping for positive 1st quarter trading update to go along with the confirmation of 2014s performance...

Not sure you were wrong as such...it would have been useful to get an understanding of the impact on cash position of the diamond wood fiasco. Still that aside you can't argue with the numbers...dare I say it but maybe just maybe the worm has finally (and I mean finally...it's taken a while) turned here. The volumes are starting to look like they have significant momentum. My belief is that Accsys will be bought over at some point now they have proven the tech and now the market for their product...just a hunch really but that's my ultimate end game.

A 2015 eps of 3.45p gives a forward pe of just over 7....that's just silly so any guidance from the company that the 3.45p is accurate should surely see a re rate of the share price. Not sure what a fair p/e would be but a p/e of 10 would not seem unreasonable...

Recovery continues....looked oversold and probably was....hopefully we will see a steady recovery to the 30's then a strong trading update / full year to put at least a floor under the SP..

Dunno what the opposite of drip drip is but the SP SEEMS to be on a nice gradual recovery now...slipped further than I thought it would but with Baz's frequent updates on a becalmed UK we could well be looking towards a much stronger Q1 on the STOR front...Alk are very good with their quarterly updates so assuming we will know end April if that is the case. With Maltby et al up and running full speed I'm still positive on earnings improvements for 2015!

Baz...fascinating stuff re the variability of wind power...it goes from 22% of demand to virtually zero. That to me is a clear indication that firstly I would hate to be responsible for balancing supply load and secondly that the increase in variability of supply should play directly into the hands of those producers that can turn supply on and off very quickly. Alkane would seem to be perfectly positioned for this and while that may result in lumpy earnings depending on how much the wind blows we can already see with the contracts being out in place for 2018 etc that we should be able to extract revenue simply for having that generating capacity on stand by AND for providing that generating capacity when required.

Not sure about 'cheaper suppliers' but maybe more like 'standard suppliers'...the STOR is used to meet peak demand that (I assume, still learning here) outstrips the current generating capacity. I would hope this extended cold spell has had Alkanes phone ringing a bit more often in 2015 than it did Q4 2014... SP seems to have settled now, looks good value on a single digit p/e.

The STOR news was very disappointing...I assume that is high margin for Alkane and the significant drop in q4 2014 compared to q4 2103 was unexpected for me as all the chat was for a tightening of UK supply and hence an assumed increase in STOR calls to Alkane. Still 2014 has been a year of consolidation and reorganisation for Alk so I can see some fruit from that coming in 2015...hoping the SP will stabilise more now and the full year results plus a strong Q1 2015 will see the company start to evidence it's growth strategy is working. That said we need to find a lot of new generation capacity so cash to fund that is a concern.

Welcome aboard....I was in, then out and now back in again at a good percentage lower than what I sold (although to be fair that was at a loss!)...still this seems to be a well run company with a strong strategic position so I'm hoping the trading update is upbeat and we shall see a turnaround in the fortune of the SP.

Well I would expect a trading update before the 28th then....will be interesting to see of it can turn around the SP direction...

That was my thought....expectation was for Henderson to reduce their holding in 2015 but now we see the opposite...interesting..

There was previously chat on here regarding Hendersons I think re the fact they would be selling into the market for some time and thius drag the SP....does anyone have info or insight into Hendersons current position and how much and how long they are likely to pull this down for?

So retesting the 52 week low and back to mid 2013 prices...seems a bit strange considering the progress made since then. I'll be sitting down soon to re-examine this company as on the face of it seems well run and well positioned in the UK market..

C7 did you miss the RNS on 8th October that explained those trades? Did you also miss the fact that both have now increased their equity holding?

Surely the decline in base load capacity could mean increased use of Alkanes power response capacity via STOR..that power can't already have been sold as how do we know how much will be required? I get the fact out installed 24/7 generation has been forward sold but an increase in response requirements will lead to increase revenues would it not? Or have I got all of that a bit mixed up? ;-)