Member Info for RustinCohle

i agree on all, mirrors my thoughts on the forward looking situation.

Munch's post is a perfect example of the capitulation/depression phase of the fear cycle.

Hang in there man. Tough times don't last. Russia already indicating some weakness in their resolve. $20s oil does nothing for nobody.

2, we are really struggling as a business with current oil / gas prices so many of the numbers will need to be readjusted as this pandemic had just started.

Disagree with this. Yes it's a relative struggle now... but i think final results will illuminate how robust we are.

keep your head mate, this is just when the market chews you up, spits you out and leaves you behind. It will recover.

I gave my opinion on this on twitter earlier.

But essentially i think we're compounded 3 ways.
1. Marco markets having the **** kicked out of them across the board
2. Oil price heaving drop

3. (The main problem vs other oilers) - Victim of own success. So many stale bulls in from old days with single digit SP entries that were more prepared to sell all the way down as the panic hit. It's easier to panic sell while in profit than it is to sell for a loss, hence i would imagine we've had trailing and regular stop losses popping off like made all the way down. Compounding the main two issues above.

Essentially our difference is one of market mechanics rather than fundamentals, that's what produces the opportunity of low prices for the long and strong. Andrew touched on this in his interview as well, i make him right.

What's the got to do with 'why people are selling'

Your point clearly should be why is it down if people are buying more than they're selling.

i'm going to write to Andrew to ask that he make it clear just how robust the company outlook is even in this climate in the final results due out next week.

Who can say where the bottom is here as it's driven by panic and fear.. it is not reflective of any danger level in the company

yeh the main thing to remember is that there's no debt and a truck load of cash. Gas is hedged, which is half of our exposure.

Decom is spread over a long term with very little due on it in the next year or so.

We need $45 equivalent in brent over the ENTIRE life of fields. That covers all capex, opex and decom - all of it.

if brent is to be lower than than short term we have so many options available it's unreal.

Break even against operating expenditure is equivalent of $27 brent. So no point shutting off yet.

Could easily just knock capex on the head if we wanted.

Rockrose will be fine.

nice to see our resident goon proving himself to have the intelligence of a bewildered wet fart. Makes me more secure in my opinion of this being a great investment long term seeing you talk complete nonsense Duster. Appreciate it.

https://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1222171348883202050?s=20

I know that's not an RNS or anything but i've seen it somewhere else before, just struggling to remember where

sigh, it's as though i didn't just post the answers to your panic a few posts ago. The info you need is in the presentation on the website.

What you mean is... i need someone to spell it out for me in bold italics every day cause i can't be bothered to look for the basic information i'm asking for.

Final results due out end of month, so you'll be able to not bother reading that soon enough.

haha okay mate, see you at $3

Oh and your industry experts were calling $100 per barrel six weeks ago when the us was about to go to war with iran.

Some of the stuff i see is just comical

$3 a barrel!? hhahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahhaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahhahahaha

It's nice that they let people with learning difficulties on to these boards.

There seems to be a lot of confusion about hedging and where we are/aren't profitable.

We are profitable at $27 brent. However we have decommissioning liabilities throughout the next 10+ years that are due for payment in phases. On that basis, across the next 10+ years we need $45 (on aggregate across that whole time) to pay off all opex, capex and abex (decom liabilities). Meaning that yes we are still profitable barrel for barrel now at $30s, but aren't profitable if it stayed there for over ten years. If you think brent stays sub $45 for 10+ years, that's when you've got the problem (though i'd say you're a lunatic if that's what you think)

That's before you consider that the $45 BE is also that high to pay for all the capex planned. $200m capex next year alone and as Andrew said in interview yesterday 'we don't need to spend that capex if we don't want to'. So there's so much baked into that $45 brent figure that we could just leave out if things got tough for long enough

And alllll of that is before you consider the huge wedge of cash there is to buffer any issues should we somehow stay sub $45 for ten years and keep all the current capex plans lol.

If you can't see value here, it might be time to take your head for a sh1 t

to be up this much in this market.... i can only think it's a leak.

Just seen on twitter that AA is about to be interviewed :-)

you'll be lucky. If Russia join then maybe.. but i think it'll be 400k from combined nations and 600k from saudi alone. That's what i've read elsewhere anyway. That's no Russia involvement.

If russia join then maybe more i guess....

what will be interesting is OPEC cutting 1m bopd, a few shale producers going under in the strain and the world going back to BAU in very short order. I'd argue there could then be a sudden surprise edge on the bull side of oil price. Would be interesting to see if, in a few weeks, we're back to relative normal in terms of demand and inventories figures suddenly appear showing a drop.

duh.. yeh i reckon it's gong to zero then mate. Value is worthless.