Member Info for Rufiji

From a PE pount of view FEVR is massively overvalued, but growth stocks are better measured by PEG and on this basis perhaps not. Any suggestion at all that growth is is not accelerating as expected will see Scott clean up,but I do not think it will be the case with the upcoming results. By the bye, it is interesting to have contrary views, and Scott is welcome is this respect.

I think the barriers to entry are comparatively high. The issue is not to produce another family of mixers but to build a strong and resilient brand. FEVR has been successful in doing so through effective marketing and has taken the brand across borders. It is becoming a generic term for up-market mixers. That is not to say that some other emerging producer could make progress, but it will require both considerable marketing spend , market positioning and strong brand attributes. Not sure Bermondsey Tonic Water yet has the same appeal.

Must be the case, as his advice in January was to short BOO with a target price of around 80p

In front of the results against a rising PEG.!!!!!! Very brave of you.

If 2017 follows last years financial calender, there will be no more news.until the full years results are released in June. That is unless we get a further significant corporate.action aroumd share issues and third party loans. Surely TW can shame the company into some sort of update.

Unfortunately the share price is not !!! Expectations built up by the inferred release of a January trading update are now being deflated. Sure, the underlying trading performance remains as it is, but this company is very poor on its attitude to private investors

Profit barly covers.dividend so the further promised hike.anticpates a.significant jump in profitabilty. Guess the market thinks this is a risk and any shortfall in the projected profit could lead to a dividend cut, or paying the dividend out of borrowings. I am optimistic and think tje brands on the balance sheet also undervalued,.but perhaps we will have to wait for the final results to see if the company's projections can be substantiated

You are hardly a.guiding light. Please explain the share price fall In fact you are probably not worth the tim of day

Very well put. Some of the calcualtions seen on this board seem to see the company merely as a broking operation with exceptionally wide margins which is an unlikely position to my understanding. A trading operation will have both to take positions and to hold inventory so the company is exposed to considerable market positions which can go either way. I am concerned on mark to market risk on gold holdings in a falling market. Moreover, gold mines do not produce pure gold so where do the refining costs lie. While optimistic I have a more.conservative opinion on the upside. Also this company could be more investor friendly as regards releasing its promised trading update

January 18th was mentioned via TW The delay seems to be unsettling the share price

I am sure that January 18th was slated for the trading update, and I believe Tom Winnifrith advertised this date on his Share Prophets website. It does look like shareholders are not the priority for this company's directors. Possibly the apparent delay is behind the pressure on the share price. WSBN have a habit of reporting very late in the day, so let's hope something appears later today.

You talk as if a rapid retracement of the share price is a "penalty in front of an open goal" I would be more cautious: 1/ The FED is actually tightening more than anticipated and signalled 3 interest rate increases in 2017 against the markets previous view of 2 increases. 2/ That might not be the end of it ,as Yellen explained that Fed Members had not taken full account of Trump's proposed fiscal generosity, and further increases may be necessary if this boosted inflation and/or caused the natural rate of employment to overshoot . Both 1/ and 2/ were the reasons for the sharp decline in precious metals and USD strength as they were not anticipated in the market. 3/ Gold could easily breach $1,100 if bonds continue to sell off and yields rise irrespective of what the Fed does or does not do, as the Fed could be left with chasing the market. The ECB has signalled no further easing for the moment. Your cash coverage ratios are already out of date. 4/ Maybe the funding will be announced before the end of the year, and this would be good news, but the signals seem to be that commercial banks are proving to be reluctant suitors and that faith is being placed in Development Banks. 5/ The profitability of the project is falling away as gold falls. Again a recovery in the gold price would be positive but it seems sometime off pending a geopolitical crisis, or a successful challenge to the Trump presidency, which under US election rules could still take place. 6/ Ethiopia country risk is under pressure 7/ I am wary of the accuracy of technical trading on an AIM share that is disproportionately volatile. Tom Winnifrith and Zac Mir of Share Prophets have been shouting Kefi up to 1.05 on technical gorunds on many occasions over the past 12 months but it has never remotely approached that figure. 8/ There must be growing pressure on working capital in the absence of the funding package, which will make a further share placing more likely. I haven't sold so I guess I hope you are right, but I prefer to take a longer term view that the funding package will eventually come to pass sometime in 2017 and that gold will not fall much below $1,100. That may support a price of around 0.6-0.8.

The Shorters seem to have an entrenched view that the fundamental trading environment for the company will change materially to the negative. They take the view that increasing legislation to control online gambling and underlying money laundering concerns will seriously impact on PAYS growth. There is some concerns about this happening as , apart from China, some members of the US Congress are pushing for online gambling to be banned. They may also be taking the view that payment alternatives are proliferating. As a result my view is that they are shoring further into any temporary strength. It will be interesting to see if figures show he short position increasing. The trading update in early January will need guidance to be positive, and more so than usual to offset what seems a freefall in the share price from this morning's peak

The unrest in Ethiopia continues to bubble away and hundreds have been killed since its inception some months back. Also the authorities have just arrested Merera Gudina, the main opposition leader on his return from Europe. The US have issued a travel warning and acquaintances who attended a recent Africa Energy conference in Addis have spoken of a heavy military presence , restrictions on travel outside of Addis and a severe clampdown on mobile/ internet traffic. I suspect increasingly that finance will predominantly have to come from development banks and I suspect the African Development Bank is in the frame. No information to say that the funding WILL NOT take place but it may be pushed back again.

I doubt the trading model is as simplistic as has been suggested 1 As I have mentioned before mines do not deliver gold; they deliver DORE which is 90%-95% purity. This has to be refined to get market gold? Who carries the price exposure over the refining period? 2 I doubt WISH is only a broker? Does it carry inventory to meet day to day trading needs? This will have to be marked to market so great if gold prices are moving up, not so great when gold prices are moving downwards 3 Does WISH trade on its own account? Does it take derivative positions? 4 Does WISH give credit to major customers? Is there settlement risk? The other issue probably having an impact on WISH is the current demonetisation/ black wealth grab in India which is targeting individual gold holdings and possibly could ban gold imports into India. Dubai is the major offshore trading centre for India so there will be an impact. Early signs suggest that this could be negative as Indian purchase volume has declined,, but it is too early to take a categorical view as there could be an increase in gold exports through Dubai as a means of Indians looking to protect wealth. So something to watch.

The rate rise has happened. The FED will need.to raise by 50 bp -'75 bp just to catch up with the market. The key item is the 30 year Treasury now yielding around 3%. If that continues to increase in yield gold is going to continue to be under pressure.

Someone's trashing gold 1150 could.be.next.stop. It is oversold but the bounces.are.very weak

Eish,you are not the refugee like me from ADVN board and the joys of CAMEC are you? Apologies if I am mistaken. The problem with FRES ( and RAND when it comes.to gold) is that they tend to be proxies for the.underlying metals given that they have deep market liquidity to allow traders to take a.significant position. They would find that difficult to do with even respectable miners such as HOCH and CENTAMIN. Great when the price of silver/gold was going up, not so great when they go down. Technically gold has been weak for sometime making lower and lower highs and falling through key resistance points excluding the Trump spike, which must have been a lottery win for professional traders given that were shorting against a lot of speculative trades.

Nothing can be ruled out but gold will be doing nothing with the USD at.13 year.highs and the FED having to raise rate 75 both just to keep up with the current price.of.tje 30 year T-Bill

Gold has breached its resistance point at 1240 and,according to the technical analysts, if this level is not recovered 1200 ,could be a realistic target