Member Info for Rufiji

The fall in the SP must be in reaction to the FMD concerns ( which are not getting alrmed coverage in the local press)as it would seem that there will be a recovery in profit in 2018 compared to 2017. As expected strong growth in retail driven by Shoprite outlets and some recovery in soft commodity prices. Cost increases are unfortunate but not enough to counter improvement in margins.I see every reason to hold. Share price has tanked ove rthe past 3 years but my take is that some recovery may happen this year. But may decline firther if overall stock market volatility increases and indices fall.

1 Yes, there is more FJET visibility in both Lusaka nd Dar 2 An apolgy: revenues are growing faster than CPI in TZ and I am afraid I got my country stats mixed up

A positive trading statement would help and I am broadly positive. Decline in share price Friday may have been down to extremely negative report in Africa Confidential on Zambia's debt position. Out of control and approaching 100% of GDP according to AC. A new Land.Act.on the works and.rumours that the consultative paper to be issued imminently will give the nod.to popularism and indiginisation. We will.see

The copper price supports the balance of payments and so the exchange rate,but not the fiscus as the.mining companies.wrenched severe tax and royalty concessions from the then government at privatisation and are experts at transfer pricing and VAT machinations. The revenue authority is claiming $8 billion from FQM for import duty evasion over a long period but that is a fantasy figure based on penalties on penalties. Still,indicative of a more hostile relationship between government and the mining industry. The root cause of the borrowing threat is trophy projects with no hope of an economic return ( the.new.airport and the resurrection of the national airline),'high recurring current expenditure, rising debt service.costs and poor tax collection. Of course corruption plays a major role in the form of insider rents and.contracts

Actually the cost of the loan is nearer 8.7% and 10.7% given that that would seem to have to settle interset on a quarterly basis.

The share price suggests the market is not that impressed by the RNS 1 Despite all the gloss on rising load factors in TZ revenues up 7% merely seem to have met inflation 2 The non-dollars in Zimbabwe 3 "tradingbroadly in line in line" = "just short of expectations" 4 ATR costs 5 The cost of the loan: 30 day LIBOR has been rising sharply and is now over 1% for the first time in 7 years and is now just short of 2% and contiuing its climb: the benchmark interest rates ar enow 8.33% and 10.33% respectively with a further rise likely. Various structural changes in the EuroDollar market could under-pin further increases. I think Nico and his team have done a commendable job and it is unfortunate that liqudity and funding costs are being compromised by exogenous factors. .

The problem is that there are no USD funds in Zimbabwe; the $5 million is merely a ledger entry on Fastjet's bank account. The severe shortage of US Dollars in what is a 90% dollar based economy means that there is nowhere near enough USD currency to meet myriad demand and banks cannot fund their NOSTRO accounts outside Zimbabwe nor release USD for internal demand as there is very little to release. Zimbabwe cannot print USD bills. There are 4 or 5 piroty areas such as the military, educaton ( most children of the elite are educated abroad), medicines,fuel and imported staple foodstuffs and certainly FJET would not qualify for any of these categories. The solution would be a political settlement with major donor countries and the resumption of aid and supranational funding by the IMF, EIB etc. But this will no doubt have to wait the outcome of the election and some agreement that it was "free and fair" no matter by how much observers stretch that definition.Any decision by CAAZ is irrelevant in these circumstances..Until some sort of political solution is in sight FJET will have to wait for a currency allocation in what is along queue or hope that transport gets redesignated as a priority industry.

Yes,no problem re the disease but a political problem for the PF who have,cracked down on informal traders who have had their economic position downgraded. Was at a dinner party where some unreconstructed expat.demanded.that traders sling avocados/bananas and.grapes at traffic lights should be banned. If that happened and his sensitivities assuaged the crime rate would rocket.More worrying is the debt position;'very negative article in Africa.Confidential today.implying Lungu is continuing to support heavy borrowing and.overall dent.position is.getting out of.control with.norrowing possibly 100% of.GDP.Sorry.cannot.download.as.not.a subscriber

Given that the share price has moved down from 65p to 11p it just shows what reliance on analysts can do to your wealth. I do expect a better year this year in the absence of exchange losses, exceptional items ,plus ongoing growth in cold storage and retail and some recovery on soft commodities. However, this view is tempered by the probability that the Palm plantation sale is stalled and.there has been no progress is selling some of their other farm properties so no significant reduction in debt

Is this Solenra? I didn't think Solenta had any 737s. My understanding is that DHL in Zambia have leased the 737 from SAFAir. I think this adds to the difficulty of getting into Zambia

Zambia's financial problems got an airing yesterday as the IMF prospective funding was.formally announced as "dead". The sacking of the well regarded finance minister was also a surprise, but perhaps not surprising as Lungu battens down with an increasingly narrow band of supporters. Many of the big PF beasts of the Sata era have left or have been marginalised. Not sure the markets fully saw this coming and perhaps the weakening of the ZKW rowards 10/$ was evidence to the fact. There is some potentially very good news on future copper reserves and production but will advise if I get greater detail. Still looking for an uptick in the share price as do not think the consequences of the debt trap or current political manoeuvres will be felt for a couple of years.

Anyone see BBC report on the looming pilot shortage with emerging Chines airlines paying salary packages close to $500k. The boom in the 737'X and other family members driving demand. Not sure if this impacts FJET but it may be a.precursor to some cost pressure.

A bit of a push me pull me influence on ZAM at present. The cholera outbreak is fading, exchange rates are not up to now exercising a baleful influence, commodity prices have actually come back up somewhat and the retail expansion around SHOPRITE continues; on the other hand economic activity was certainly held back by the Cholera scarea nd there is concern about the intensity of the annual rains. The North of Zambia has had good rains so Mpongwe should be OK but Central Province ( Chisamba has had only 50% of its normal rainfall), Lusaka and Southern Province have not. Unless an improvement takes hold both agricultural and pastoral yields will be impacted. SOme positiveness can be taken from the appearence of heavy rain squalls this week and to continue until the middle of February according to the BBC. Still expecting an improved performance but a few more known unknowns to bear in mind

Unfortunately the guidance for the next quarter disappointed and Cook was downbeat,and the share price retreated a little post market close. Will have to see how analysts digest the news before understanding how the sp will react.

LAM and Air Zim have both tried it with noticeable lack of success. However, Maputo does seem to becoming more of an entry port of choice for Zim+Zam imports, so perhaps prospects are brighter.

South African Express in a "huge crisis", so says Lynne Brown the South African Public Enterprises Minister, not to mention SAA and South African Airlink. Now if only the South African Governemnt would unbundle and exit some SOuthern African routes that would offer some jucy opportunities, but whether they will...........

Ethiopian have the management contract. Similar to the arrangement with Air Malawi. With domestic routes the priority Ethiopian will be able to feed PAX on to their international flights.

The momentum of the epidemic does seem to be subsiding. 60 new cases and no deaths over the past.couple of days with mass vaccination of 2 million residents. Looks like the situation is moving towards.normality.

DD Yes it is impacted in a number of ways. 1 at least one Zambeef outlet has been closed by the authorities 2 a number of supermarkets have been closed including the very busy Shoprite at Twin Palms which houses a high turnover Zambeef outlet 3 movement of agricultural commodities into Lusaka is being curtailed 4 There is a general fading away of economic activity as people move around less and a more sober attitude is present as bars must close at 19. These outlet closures are temporary as the real problem is not the premises but staff bringing in the bacterium and a casual attitude to food handling. I guess needs are as needs must and the government is right on its approach. It seems as if the momentum of the epidemic is levelling off and if this is the case then we should be back to normal sometime in February. I would guess $ 500 k could be culled from the bottom line but not near the figure for the usual Zambeef annual disaster. Last year there was a trading update in April and, if repeated we should learn more then. I still remain optimistic we will see a significant improvement in 2018

Another 170 cases overnight with 3 more deaths. Strict control over all gatherings with even weddings and funerals suspended. Inspection of all food outlets has resulted in at least one Zambeef butchery being closed. That having been stated awareness of the issue has grown, all customers to restaurants and fast food outlets have to wash hands with sanitiser and epicentre of outbreak has been uncovered in two compounds. Unless there is serious dereliction of duty by a.critical percentage of the population I would hope that the January 31 date for review of restrictions will show the outbreak under control. Still people are certainly movimg around far less than usual.