Member Info for RuckRover

Ray, no I don’t think so. But you have to work out what SCIB1 will be worth when it is generating revenue in order to assess what it might be worth to a buyer. Then you have to factor in the extra risk they will be taking on and the additional cash required to progress it. If you don’t, you are just plucking figures out of the air (for example £8)

“Ruck, can you make it quicker than 2025”

I can’t lol. These things take time. Of course, as Ray said, Scancell could sell out sooner but the value won’t be as high. Don’t forget we are talking about realistic expectations. If our estimates are higher or they come sooner, great!

C7,
I think 50p is a very realistic expectation.
I think TD,s 21p is realistic.
I think my valuation of 68p for SCIB1 by 2025 is realistic.
I think, if Modi is successful £2 is realistic.

I think the current 6.7p is undervalued.
I’ve not seen any reasoned out argument that would contradict my figures above.

Inan, see I able quantify what I mean, it is you who have failed to or are you sticking with £8?

Inanaco,

“explain what is "realistic expectations" .......... when something like keytruda is worth Billions ?”

OK, so Keytruda is worth billions. As a consequence, what are your expectations in respect of Scancell? Unless you numerate your expectations they cannot be assessed as realistic or otherwise.

Hanoi,

If you have done your research thoroughly and have bought into the story, there is nothing to fear from 1) dilution; 2) daily share price. Work out what you think this is worth. If the market price is less buy (funds permitting) . Many think the current sp is undervalued including Vulpes, Trinity and most of the well informed here. There may well be a drift back while we await further news of trials but so what? This is a share that requires nerve, patience and realistic expectations. ATB

Yesterday was a good example of why we shouldn't be afraid of "dilution".
Yesterday, my investment was "diluted" by 20%. Yet the money value of that investment rose by over 30%.

Dilution is inevitable. It is going to take an enormous amount of money to get the pipeline to market (assuming it works). It costs on average $650M to develop a drug, Inanaco alluded to this earlier with his "Billion plus" to develop Modi1/2/3. Inan, you didn't state currency but assume you mean USD rather than Chilean Pesos.

FTSE, also suggest you read the comments of former Scancell chairman David Evans over on ADVFN

Were certainly getting both ends of the spectrum this morning!

Inan,

"just to busy to get involved at the moment ... sorry C7 (major construction project)"

Lucky coincidence that your construction project finishes in time for some good news and a bit of blue! Lol

There is plenty to be deduced from todays RNS that is positive without resorting to fiction like "cash sorted" lol

C7,

"and we passed!!!"

Exactly!
ATB

"whats not to like ?"

Nothing!

I would hardly say cash is "sorted" though.
Did you notice that Vulpes have a Chief Risk Officer? He must have been busy recently.

Well done Knowlesi on your prediction.

I knew there was a cunning plan!

I think apart from the needed funds, it’s who the investor is that adds validation. Another 4/5 deals like this and we are sorted. Noting the term “long term”, I would think Vulpes will want to advance the trials, raise the profile and SP and then possibly invest more.

I think the plaudits and accolades are well deserved.
As for "no consequences" try telling the patients who are still alive that!

The data issue came from Scancell not me. Data great for patients, us investors and perhaps Scancell themselves, just not enough for big pharma to commit to the asking price.
ATB

Yes, I'm afraid Scancell have left themselves in limbo. The deals that are done pre-clinical may be on better terms as the expectation could exceed reality. Post-clinical you need good data and lots of it. Moditope is pre-clinical (in humans) but Scancell themselves have SCIB1 which is post-clinical (partly as no phase 3 yet) but the sample size is small. In addition, melanoma is one of the most receptive to immunotherapy and many companies are doing it.

The best value may come from MODI2 and the hard to treat cancers such as pancreatic.

AIMO

Thanks for sharing the link TF. This is well worth a view.

Interesting comments from David Fischer about 1:30 in. "drugs have failed", "they simply won't work", "immunology is the only approach.

It does seem to me that immunotherapy is not only recovering from the bad press of a few years back but is on the cusp of becoming the therapy of choice in a number of cancers.

Any one familiar with the "Hype Cycle"? If not google it.
I can't decide whether we are coming out of the "trough of disillusionment" or haven't yet reached the "peak of expectation". Anyway, we will eventually arrive at the "plateau of productivity" one day and reap the rewards for our patience.

Deadly,
"(IMO, comparatively speaking, surely it's worth considerably more??)"

Well you would hope it is worth at least as much. SCIB1 for Melanoma could be worth $681M alone by 2025. Using NPV with a 25% discount rate that would be worth $142M right now. Now I'm not suggesting for one second that Scancell would sell at that price, I'm pretty sure the BOD would not allow it.

So what a big pharma would be prepared to pay and what SCL would accept is the big unknown and possibly unfathomable. I guess it wouldn't be unreasonable if Scancell were to accept a deal similar to Tilos - I'd be happy with that.

The market for Cystic fibrosis is estimated to be worth £15B pa by 2025 which is similar to Melanoma. I don't know what cancer targets Tilos are pursuing. There is of course a lot of competition in the cancer treatment market. There are currently 68,000 cancer trials listed compared to just over 1,000 cystic fibrosis trials. Perhaps big pharma take this into account as well?

An equally valid alternative theory.

Confirmation bias in action again possibly?

Violin, I'm sure you are not alone, I too would fund a trial or two if I won the lottery as I'm sure many others here would.

Dalestar, When I started reading your post I thought you were over-egging the science. Then you redeemed yourself by talking about "business oriented" and "monetise".

Personally, I think many investors will treat bios just like any other investment. If you were considering investing in a goldmine you wouldn't delve into the minutiae of the operation (necessarily) like how wide the shafts are, what latest equipment and plant you will be using. You would consider how much gold is there, what it will cost to get it out and how long it will take. You can easily value this as the price of gold is well published.

Similarly with SCLP, how much is it worth (potentially), what will it cost to get there and how long will it take.
I invested in SCLP long before I researched and came to understand the science.

Many here have a deep understanding of the science. It hasn't prevented us from clocking up large losses (on paper!)