Member Info for RuckRover

C7,

"Ruck, so pleased you said that about spelling, you had spent years correcting mine and commas and full stops. Lol, "

Should be full stops - (hyphen)
and Lol. (full stop) or ! (exclamation mark)

Otherwise, perfect! ;)

Ratty,
Is perfect spelling an essential to be designated a “high class poster”?

I play poker on line for a bit of relaxation, only the 1 cent tables lol.
I went all in and lost in a way I regularly do. I know exactly what I do wrong, it is simple and obvious and I should, after many years of playing, have learned.

What happened was I got a flush - ace high - the best flush you can have (apart from a straight flush which given the cards on the table was not possible). In the excitement I failed to consider the risks. There was a pair on the table which should have been a flashing warning as it means a full house or 4 of a kind is possible both of which beat a non straight flush. The other factor was it wasn’t an immediate all in - it went up gradually then all in bang.

It struck me there were similarities to investing. We can let excitement blur our judgement. But if you really hold the nuts you can’t lose.

Still, there is always an open offer on the poker table, I bought back in and recovered half my losses!

Inan
"your own life ....... "

Lol, it shouldn't worry you then!

VanVan,

"What am I missing? "
Nothing, it is others who are possibly missing something. Alternatively, there is nothing to miss.

"Or is it just a make of patience?"
I think it probably is. The impatient will sell out and either miss out on profit or save themselves a loss.

What I think you need to do is research as much as you can a come up with your own value. Ignore the current SP, it means nothing. Ignore the over inflated numbers based on nothing more than wishful thinking. Glean as much as you can from others but check out the facts for yourself.

A couple of months back I didn't know how to calculate NPV (Net Present Value). This was used in the Trinity Delta valuation. I now know what it is and how to calculate it (thanks to Excel!) I had already come it with my own valuations based on market size, market share, profitability and cost. For example, when SCIB1 melanoma hits the market (2025) it should be worth 68p per share. Using a discount rate of 25% this is worth 14p today.

So I'm not too worried when the share change hands for sub 5p (or even 3p!). I think they are well undervalued and now is a good tome to buy (IMO).

So would I sell over 14p? No, because you need to consider the other targets:

NSCLC £1.50 (NPV 25p)
TNBC £1.02 (NPV 13.7p)
Ovarian 97p (NPV 10.4p)
Head and Neck 34p (NPV 2.9p)

These add up to a NPV of 67p. So if we got over 70p I would be tempted to sell (a few)

Above all using 25% discount rate. AIMO, DYOR

Inan,

Apologies, what other earth shattering, urgent business am I holding up?

TF, thanks for the best wishes, appreciated.

"''I guess the point being made is that the Arana deal
helped to keep the lights on for Scancell's science to trundle onwards and turn up with Moditope in the end. And 3 cheers for that !'' (03.59)"

Which was sort of my point. You don't have to mislead in order to put out a positive statement. Something along the lines of:

""In December 2006 Scancell sold its pipeline of direct killing monoclonal antibodies to Arana Therapeutics, an Australian biopharmaceutical company. The deal allowed Scancell to focus its efforts on its innovative ImmunoBody® programme and fund further research which ultimately led to a discovery resulting in the Moditope® platform. "

C7, been busy. As you know, my father (90) is very ill. Took my father-in-law (94) to his annual church do on Saturday, looked after the grandchildren while son-in-law went to see his grandad (91).

Anyway, great to hear your news and that you appear so upbeat and chirpy. Chelsea qualified for champions league and a cup final to come!

It was very positive news on Friday. Reaffirms that Moditope is on the way to clinical trials albeit a little later than we expected. I can't help thinking that the true value of SCIB1 is being suppressed by the wait for Moditope. Hopefully that will change once trials get underway and data is published.

Thanks for the link crumbs. So Scancell have retrospectively tagged on the funding of Moditope (discovered in 2012) to a sale completed in 2006. A little misleading?

Crumbs, where has the quote “in December 2006.....” come from? Moditope wasn’t on the scene back in 2006 so how can it appear in a quote from then?

No, that would be the Financial Advisory Board - TBA....

Yes, there’s the RNS you’ve been waiting for.

Do these guys get paid do you think?

TF, you are probably right about most LTH being underwater and probably have been for quite a while. The significant change is that all the institutional investors are sitting at a loss.

I hope it won’t fall further but every time anyone has said it won’t it has!

Looking at it rationally, nothing much has changed really. Same potential, same challenges. This is why I try to value success realistically. Potential revenue minus cost to get there (and time to get there)

That is why I’m not pinning all my hopes on BioNTech. If it’s not them, it will be someone else or a different Chanel of funding altogether.

Morning C7. Great news you are awake. Watched the match last night, very tense but you got through in the end.

RNS? We’ll soon find out.

Roses, yes there is always a reason, something to use as an excuse. However, you can't blame CF for the slide from 22p to 5p. Maybe it's the fault of the FDA, Ichor, BioNtech, the patent office, the drug manufacturer.

That's why I said "man up". A frank statement of what has happened to culminate in sub 4p and a reiteration of what the plans are, reassurance that things are on track etc etc.

Surely they have to man up, come out and make a statement?

Crumbs, yes, that’s what I meant! Missed out two words “prospect of”.
If Scancell are/were considering a cash raise, the timing of the CF affair couldn’t be worse. I still can’t see cash being raised much over 5p.

Interesting that BioNtech are splashing the cash but overlooking Scancell. Maybe a timing issue rather than any fundamental problem.

Who’d have thought 6 years ago we would be getting excited about the SP going UP to 5p !!

Where on earth in the rules of association football does it say you can’t kiss an opponent?
Unless it was a Liverpool kiss!

Inan, yes I am still holding a few VAL.