Member Info for RuckRover

Isn’t it about time some here got real and accepted the FACT that the “science” ALONE WON’T see us through. Just as any of the other factors necessary for success ALONE WON’T see us through. It will be a combination of several factors that MAY “see us through”.

Perhaps DE deliberately does not want to understand “the science” - it gives him an advantage.

C7, Yes, some positive news, thanks for asking. The operation went as well as could be expected - tumour completely removed and no damage - so the worry of paralysis has gone. She is concious, walking, talking and will be discharged tomorrow. If it comes back she will need a good dose of immunotherapy (my diagnosis, not the doctors!)
ATB.

C7, I agree, the SP of 8 years ago (or 3 years ago) is totally irrelevant. The dizzy heights reached in a short period of time gave rise to some unrealistic expectations.

Over the past few years, reality has set in. We have an SP that over a number of months has traded in the 3.6 to 9p range. Vulpes has seen 5p has good price to invest in. Trinity Deltathink 17p is the current value. A former chairman has “mused” he could imagine a buy out at 22p. Personally, I would see 38p as a current fair price given the pipeline.

We do not know whether a buy out is on the cards or not, and if it is what the offer would be.
We do know that Scancell need a significant amount of funding to progress their pipeline. Where this money will come from remains to be seen.
AIMHO.

I work with a guy who thinks you can order a kit on the internet and clone a human. Do you believe that as well?

Nom,
It’s interesting for sure, but why do you think it is worrying? Worrying for who?

Thanks C7, she is out of theatre but no news yet on how it's gone.

TF:
>Bermuda you posted that for us at bedtime - I was asleep by then ! I'm glad that we have a number of posters including yourself who have worked hard to get some understanding of the science, even if admittedly incomplete<
Hear, hear!

Inan:
>is this what you lot have become .... ?? <
Perhaps, but still got a long way to catch you.

Inan:
>Anyway ... well written Garbage .. seems to be more acceptable than actual facts ... <
As opposed to poorly written garbage?

Inan:
>TF ... Bermuda is calling folks Liars ! yet you say nothing …<
No he isn't. He is saying those on the BB claiming to be experts are liars.

Crakin:
>This grammar comes from a self proclaimed expert in Bio Technology !!!!!!!!<
The lack of grasp of his mother tongue is well acknowledged

Inan:
>The BB has filled up with "negativity" all related to SP not IP .... <
Well we were all fairly positive pre-xmas and post new year - then you turned up!
Besides, it's not "all related to SP". The SP is merely a consequence of late trials, missed opportunities, poor management, poor decision making and burning through cash requiring another cash call. Maybe we could take some of that IP down to the pawn broker an see what we can raise?

Thanks C7.

Thanks Bermuda.

Yes, have to agree with you guys, removing posts does not make for a healthy board. In this case, it was merely stating facts. I rec'd both crumb's and crakin's posts as both were equally valid and did not contradict each other. I think the fact that many of us have remained invested or even increased our investment against a backdrop of a falling share price is positive.

I did think that towards the end of last year, the injection of realism, respect and tolerance had a very positive effect on the BB and possibly the SP. Long may it continue!

Thanks C7. I think everyone has a similar list, that was the point I was trying to make. ATB.

Thanks for the welcome, C7, not sure there was any choice but 2020 here I am.

It is interesting that crumbs’ bullish post and cracking’s less positive post both got a few recs. To be honest, I rec’d both as I suspect a few did. I guess the years of disappointment have not altered the fact that the technology is good (and well protected) and we hope that the monetisation will come - eventually.

One thing’s for sure, cancer and the need for effective treatments is still with us. Looking back on 2019.....

Colleague continues treatment for breast cancer.
Another colleague’s husband being treated for multiple myeloma.
Another colleague’s husband paralysed from waist down after prostate cancer.
Daughter in law’s dad treated for prostate cancer.
Daughter in law’s uncle passed away following prostate cancer.
Daughter-in-law’s cousin passed away after stomach cancer.
Daughter-in-law herself having two brain tumours removed tomorrow.

Happy New Year.

Merry Christmas to all.

Crumbs, I was talking in the context of trading. They obviously knew about the second AvidiMab deal but were unable to trade until the information had been made available to the market generally.

So, yes, they may well get to know something we don’t again but won’t be able to trade - otherwise it is insider trading. Of course, when the news breaks, they will be primed, ****ed with finger on the trigger while we will be trying to assemble the bazooka.

The corollary to all this is that lack of trading by the bod and companies they represent does not mean there is no news. IMO

Morning C7. Just caught up on the football, congratulations Chelsea. Just a shame the beautiful game is blighted by tribalism, racism and violence.

I don’t think Vulpes know anything we don’t, that wouldn’t be legal. They may however see somethings that others don’t, but whatever that is, is open for all of us to see.

Maybe next year will be our year. We’ve been saying if for six years so must come at some time! I think 10p will be breached on the next hint of good news. I do detect a good dose of realism as far as the potential SP goes and this does seem to have calmed investors down. It is hard for potential investors to reconcile predictions of multiple £sss when the sp stands a a few pence. I think professional investors like Vulpes (and others who I met at the AGM) would see 50p as a good return from an investment in the 5p region. Trinity delta have a 17p risk adjusted figure and I have come up with 38p (NPV, not risk adjusted). I think these sort of valuations are very realistic and there is no reason why we shouldn’t be trading in the 17-38p range right now. Given Scancell (and Nottingham Uni) history of discovery, who knows what surprises may be in store.
Aimho.

(The predictive text always changes aimho to “armholes” lol)

researcher,
as scouse said, there have been 2 rns earlier this week 1) second AvidiMab collaboration signed and 2) Vulpes adding to their shareholding. Individually two very positive pieces of news but together even better.
There is normally a delay of 2-3 days before news filters to a wider audience. As investors, we may wait avidly and madly (AvidMadly) for an RNS at 6.55am each morning but the wider investment community doesn't!

C7, just recapping the day. Your question was both good, valid and very thought provoking as evidenced by the posts it solicited. (What would a £5M license payment do to the SP)

I estimated 1.5 to 7p
Ray went with boost to sentiment without putting a number on it (very sensible Ray)
Inan went with - “”divide it by the share base.”” which equates to 1p.

Rather conservative estimates given the hope we all pin on a “license deal”.

I guess realism is finally beginning to set in.

……………………………………………………………………………………...
impossible to quantify ..
"""you have no idea of the cash outflows next year ""
just manufacturing Modi2 could throw off your numbers by Millions ..
……………………………………………………………………………………..
Inan,

You have to estimate likely, potential, possible ins and outs.
Then use Excel to do the NPV calculation. It is quite simple really.
Of course, you could not bother, stick your head in the sand and pluck a figure (of eight) out of the air - based on no estimate or calculation, perhaps just a wish? (it is panto season ).

Your last point: How many millions of £ are you expecting (estimating) MODI to cost?
Presumably, a higher manufacturing cost would indicate either higher licence fees/potential earnings.
So wouldn't this balance out and not affect the NPV calculation?

Ray, C7,

I agree, sentiment will improve.
Also, it will buy time in that it will postpone the time when a dilutive fund raising occurs.
Simples!

>>Tell me Ruck if you can, and this is just one scenario if we were in a position to receive £5m in licence fees for Avidamab by H2 2020 what kind of valuation would that make on our current SP presuming no other funding was necessary and timelines/revised timelines for SCIB1 are met.<<

C7, that's a very good question. In strict financial terms, the only difference would be the fact that we would have £5M that we would not have to fund in a way that dilutes the shares. This equates to 7p (NPV 42p vs NPV 35p).

Of course, we are nowhere near 35p let alone 42p. If you look at SCIB1 alone, it's 6p to 7.5p
So the price will be (as it has been) be driven by sentiment so should we announce a £5M license deal I would expect the shares to increase by at least 7p. A deal would give hope of more to come (on AvidiMab) and further endorse the other platforms.

I have stuck with a $1.30 exchange rate. I expect the Boris bounce to retrace it's steps when reality dawns!
ATB. AIMO.