Member Info for RuckRover

Ray,
(Your 7:50)

We have been talking about “deals” for over 7 years. None of them have materialised to date. Personally, I have discounted them from my projections.

Ray,
“Personally I see more pros than cons”
FWIW, so do I. I do however at least acknowledge there are cons.

“an SCLP share is surely better value now than at 50p”

No, not necessarily, this is the whole point. The market will value a share based its potential earnings, and the likelihood of achieving it. Sentiment will also come into play. In 2012 we were talking of values between £3.20 and £12.00. We felt the likelihood of getting this was high since the risk would be passed on to whoever bought the company for “many multiples of the current share price”. Sentiment was high and it was this that drove the sp as no one had looked at the real financial possibilities.

Today, we have (well some of us) a more realistic understanding of the potential financial worth. We have (painfully) come to realise the length of time to monetise the asset unless it is sold off - something we have failed to do to date.

Sat here at 5p, we know that the only thing that will lift it into the teens is trial data. This looks unlikely to come before well into 2020. In the meantime, this will languish below 10p.

“I would suggest that it is more logical to buy NOW than it was when the SP was briefly in the 50s back in 2012.”

I bought plenty in the 50s in 2012. I was much happier doing so then than I would be buying at 5p today. When the sp was in the 50s it was on the up with few negatives and the prospect of a good return in months. It has only been with the passing of time that the negatives have developed....
No takers for the platform, several dilutive fund raising, missed timetables, drugs past their sell by, stalled US trials due to Trigrid etc.

Should be “Psychologically”

Ray,
You said “I'm sorry Ivy but IMO there is too much of an obsession with the SP.”

Well yes, there is an argument for ignoring the sp and consoling ourselves that it will all come good In the end. Psychology though, it is not comforting to be sat with an investment that is worth 30% of what was put in. If you were in profit you may be more inclined to put more in. At the moment it is just putting in good money after bad.

C7, icalvert,
Two great posts.
C7, I take your point about attracting more investors. As far as LTH putting in more money, I believe this is limited 1) because they are reluctant to commit more funds than they already have and 2) they may not have a significant amount of spare cash to invest. Personally I won’t commit more until I see evidence of real progress and real evidence from trial data.

I believe if the sp is to climb in the short/medium term we need to attract more pis. My own view, as you have probably gathered, is to sell a realistic target. I think getting a 100 new investors thinking this could be a 10 bagger would have far more impact than trying to convince a couple that this will hit £8. This sounds too far fetched (which of course it is)

Realistically, once we know dosing has started and Modi is on track, I may get to my break even of 14p.

Ray, you are of course right, in the scenario you describe. But can you really envisage Scancell ceasing all further research, closing down all operations and simply having a P.O. Box where royalties are sent and a part time person who deposits the funds?

I admire you trying to give some credibility to Inan’s stance but it is what it is - ludicrous.

Ivy, thanks for the interjection. So just me, you and the pint of bombardier making any sense!

Inan,
I'm off to the pub. I can probably have a more intelligent conversation with my pint of Bombardier!

There are a lot of players in the Melanoma space. Trinity Delta were predicting 2.3% market share (of $14.1B)

Maybe if you were CEO you could persuade everyone to work for nothing, get premises rent free, free flights etc?

No company makes 100% net profit!
What about buildings, salaries, manufacturing costs, further research, IT equipment, travel etc etc etc.

We could of course use your formula....

Market size = BIG BUCKS
Market share = 100 percent (because Scancell are great)
SP = £8

"abbot Maths"
Inan,
Don't ridicule it just because you don't understand it.
The "maths" is a pretty standard financial calculation.
More than happy to debate the input parameters if you like but the formula is sound I can assure you.

Inan,

These are the assumptions I have used:

Market Value $4B
Market share 6.9 percent
Royalty to SCLP 17.5 percent
Net Profit 20 percent
Exchange rate 1 GBP = 1.30 USD
PE Ration 20
Assumes another £6M to be raised at 5p

Just to add.....

25p in 2027 equates to an NPV of 6p (using a 20% discount rate) .
So yes, today's share price is covered by SCIB1 alone.

So buy today at 5p and get a 20% per annum return by 2027.

Sorry, that should be $4B not £4B.

Inan,
"The reason why i keep saying SCIB1 ... easily covers the Shareprice ... is because it does ......…"
Is that the best argument you've got lol!

FWIW, I think SCIB1 COULD easily cover the share price but it all depends on it getting to market. That seems a long way off at the moment. If it did get to market by say 2026, it could be worth 25p/share (SCIB1 alone based on a £4B market)

C7, just seen the question you posed earlier...
"What does the industry see that the market doesn"t??"

Probably plenty, and vice versa. They are looking at/for different things. The scientific community are interested in the science, the research and techniques regardless of the financial potential. The markets are simply looking at how much of a return is this likely to make in the next n months/years.
We know the two have a tenuous link but I'm not sure all factions see it like that. In fact, I am sure - look at the share price!