Member Info for RuckRover

Bermuda,
Many thanks for your reply to my question last night..
“ I make it 592m - 465m + 127m. Am I missing something?”

I hadn’t included the 36m shares in the upcoming open offer. Assuming it is fully taken up, the total shares in issue will indeed be 629m shares in issue. The new issue represents 35% of the existing shares which I believe is in excess of what the BOD are allowed to approve hence the vote at the AGM.

We are told that Vulpes have taken half of the 36m placing shares. Do we know who bought the other half - a single investor or multiple?

I make it 592m - 465m + 127m. Am I missing something?

Well you wouldn’t want to be out when that RNS is issued lol.

No Bunsie, you have an exemption certificate from any maths puzzles I post.

Three guys go to buy a radio. They ask the assistant the price - £30 he says. They each chip in £10 and leave with the radio. The owner asks the assistant how much they paid, £30 said the assistant. Oh, it’s on offer at £25 says the owner, here take £5 and give them a refund. He goes after and thinks they still don’t know the price so if they get £1 back each they will be happy and he can trouser £2. This he does and everyone is happy.
So each man has paid £9 x 3 = £27 + £2 in his pocket = £29.
But they originally paid £30 so What happened to the other pound?

C7,
Yes we can move on. Just waiting for Inan to say he’s wrong lol.

Moljen,
We HAVE been diluted obviously.
I see there is no merit in trying to give someone a face saving get out!

Yes, I’m sure we are fed up it has gone on so long - due to one poster being exceptionally obtuse.
I’m sure every with a modicum of Intelligence gets it, so I fear it is a ploy to mislead.
Dilution is an important element in an investment of this kind - I certainly factor it in on my projections.
Let’s assume that we are able to value Scancell accurately. Let’s assume that we did that in 2012 when our mcap reached £117m and the SP 60p. Let’s assume that is the definitive value and can’t be changed by sentiment or setbacks. Had you bought in at 60p then you would be sitting on a 66% LOSS purely down to dilution.
The same is true for any valuation. So even at the fabled $500m you would still be 66% down due to dilution.

Moon,
I’m happy to leave it at 27.3% as per the official Scancell news release. I can get that figure so I’ve independently corroborated it!

Bunsie,
I’m pleased for you lol!
Now, imagine a milk tanker turned up and delivered the load into your cup.
Question: would you still be able to taste the tea?

Moon party,
I haven’t! Do you think I should? What about the placing to private investors - is that part of the 36m?

TF,
I couldn’t confirm or deny your figures yesterday as I hadn’t Worked out the number of new shares issued. This was confirmed in the later RNS as 127,272,726 new shares. 127 as a percentage of 465 (Previous number of shares) is 27.3.
An extract from the RNS...
“ The Subscription Shares and Placing Shares to be issued represent approximately 27.3 per cent. of the Existing Ordinary Shares.”
So we have been diluted by 27.3%.
I expect that in any new report from Trinity Delta they will revise their forecast SP from 15.6 proportionally to 11.3p. That is unless at the same time they revise their valuation on any of the platforms for whatever reason.
It is important to compare like with like and in any equation to only change one variable at a time in order to see the impact of that change. For example, adding the £15m to the balance sheet would give a distorted view only to be corrected over time as the cash got spent.
As Inan says, we probably need £3billion. To raise that sort of amount at 10p a share that would represent 5000% dilution.

Perhaps when the new TD report is out and target SP of 15.6p is downgraded, people will understand the impact of dilution. At the very least, maybe some will understand it exists.

Inan,
Of course not you idiot.
A 2 for one split you would get twice as many shares at half the price.

Inan,
I’m struggling to understand why you are struggling to understand dilution.
There are 3 elements to the formula.

Number of shares in issue
Value per share
Market capitalisation

The number of shares in issue is a fact, there are the number there are and that’s it.
You can calculate two of the values from the other two, usually
Market cap = share in issue x price.
You could, if you wanted, calculate the share price (forecast/estimated) from an estimated company value divided by the shares in issue. This is how Trinity Delta came up with 15.6p. Before the last “dilution” from the Vulpes issue it was 17.2p. Once they have recalculated using today’s dilution it will be less than 15.6p.

If you increase the number of shares in issue you have by definition “diluted” the shares already there just as adding more water to a glass of squash dilutes it.

Now I take your point about the value of an individual’s holding. As Wild pointed out earlier you just have a smaller slice of a bigger cake (smaller as in smaller angle of the segment assuming a round cake).

So you may have a point but it’s nothing to do with dilution - dilution is what it is.
Hope this helps clear your blockage.

Can anyone tell me how many more shares will be in issue after this placing?
I guess we need to wait and see what the take up has been before we know exactly what the dilution is.

Sorry C7, I wanted to reply to a post and made the mistake of clicking “reply”!
It has happened to me, quite perturbing to see a conversation with your name in the subject that has nothing to do with you.

Bunsie,
Yes 36k at 5.5p is well within your 10k

Bermuda,
Yes, dilution goes with the territory with bios I’m afraid so no disillusionment from here.
As for long term holders denying dilution, unfortunately there is always one!
I thought the RNS was really good news even if it is dilutive, it’s a shame people can’t just accept it for what it is an try and deny reality.

Inan,
“ have shareholders Lost money with this fund raise ... ie Dilution”

I’m afraid that isn’t the criteria of “dilution”. Otherwise a fall from 60p to 7p would by your reckoning be dilution.